The problem with most of these projections, as I see it, is Michigan. Between Palin's "hockey mom" persona and the downfall of that buffoon Mayor Kilpatrick, there is no way in heaven Michigan is "leaning" Dem. Mark my words, Michigan goes red in November.
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread
Collapse
X
-
Just thought I'd bump this in the wake of recent polls.
RCP now has Obama winning 301-237 (ahead 249-163 w/o tossups)
538 now has Obama winning 329-209 (though they're counting Florida for Obama, which seems crazy)
Pollster.com has Obama ahead 229-174, and would the results be a tie if the tossups broke the way they're now leaning and the two states they're showing as tied (NH and VA) both break for McCain.
Just FYI."I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
Comment
-
Wait, I thought 269-269 goes to the House, where each state delegation votes as one. The Dems have a majority, but by state delegations, doesn't the GOP have more states? And we'll have all these calls for state delegations to vote for the candidate who won the state, regardless of the nationwide popular vote. Does the DC delegate get a vote in this situation?"My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
Comment
-
Nope, the Dems have a majority in 27 state delegations, iirc; and there's no way those delegations are going to give up the White House just because their states went red instead of blue."I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin
Comment
-
Really? I'd have thought, just based on demographics, that most of the Dem majority was due to the New England and West Coast delegations. Well, surprise surprise.
It would still be a nightmare if McCain won the popular vote, though. As it stands, it seems like that would be an unlikely scenario to put it lightly, but not impossible."My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
Comment
-
Jon Miller: Tie 269-269 (McCain almost certainly the winner in this case)
Uh, no, that couldn't happen.
The final result will be 583-0 McCain.
Comment
-
Rufus is right; as it stands, the Dems lead 27-21 by House Delegations, with Kansas and Arizona(!) tied.
States that have a Blue House, but are likely to go to McCain in the EC are: North and South Dakota, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
Blue House states that are "battlegrounds" include: Indiana, Colorado, North Carolina, New Hampshire.
Red House states likely to go Obama number only one, Delaware.
Red House battlegrounds: Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.
So, if we do end up 269-269, those are the state delegations to keep your eyes on."My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
Comment
-
I know better than try to predict the activities of massive groups of demonstrably retarded people.
Bush in power for eight years. Really, why is anyone bothering to predict?
It wouldn't surprise me to see Palin murder McCain and then get elected with 85% of the votes. Your country is amazing, Wiglaf."The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "
Comment
-
What surprises me is that DC gets three EC votes, but if the election does go to the House, DC is **** outta luck, even if it's deadlocked 25-25."My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
"The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud
Comment
-
Well - i wont give a guess, until i know, what kind of machines are used for the elections this time - the rigged ones again ?
BTW: One person at least needs to say it in a thread like this: This system is so outdated, not representative and so badly in need for reform, like a firaxis game at release... Why not just go with the popular vote ?
Comment
-
Originally posted by Guynemer
Rufus is right; as it stands, the Dems lead 27-21 by House Delegations, with Kansas and Arizona(!) tied.
At first I thought he was nuts (no, not Rufus, never!). Most states are rural and rural tends to vote Republican. I didn't think to look at the make up of the actual congressional delegations.
And with generic Dems out pacing generic Repugs, those congressional delegations should become even more blue.
Comment
Comment