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Does the improved American economy doom Obama's chances?

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  • #31
    GDP growth is irrelevant to most people if their wages didn't go up or if they're unemployed.

    With the proverbial **** hitting the fan recently I doubt numbers from before the Lehman meltdown matter much.
    "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
    -Joan Robinson

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    • #32
      Yeah. Stagnant wages, higer inflation than a year ago, falling employment, falling home prices (most families' main asset), falling retirement accounts... to think that voters will see the economy as improving right now is nothing short of insane.
      If you don't like reality, change it! me
      "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
      "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
      "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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      • #33
        Obama wasn't talking economy in back in the second quarter. He was talking about all the big spending plans he had. Those days are gone, he has already warned that his previous promises may be "delayed" due to the bailout.

        The only thing that may hurt Obama is if McCain actually follows thru on what appears to be an attempt to pin the crisis on the Democrats. The figures show the ecomomy was not in that bad of shape until the subprime mortgage house of cards began tumbling. He's just started trying link Democrats and the crisis on campaign stops, and he's naming names. Desperation on McCain's part, but it could gain traction with voters. There is plenty of tape out there of Democrats saying nothing was wrong at the GSE's until Fannie/Freddie had to be taken over.
        "The greatest happiness of life is the conviction that we are loved - loved for ourselves, or rather, loved in spite of ourselves."--Victor Hugo

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        • #34
          Both parties had their respective roles in the unfolding financial meltdown. The real questions are, which one is less culpable? Whose candidate do you think can do more to mitigate the meltdown? Why? And so on ...

          In less than a month's time, we'll know what the voters decided.

          Gatekeeper
          "I may not agree with what you have to say, but I'll die defending your right to say it." — Voltaire

          "Wheresoever you go, go with all your heart." — Confucius

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          • #35
            Well wages have been stagnant but one big reason for that is that the cost of providing benefits to workers (mostly health care premiums) have skyrocketed. There's other reasons as well, but that's a really big one...

            We won't see any real growth in wages and salaries until our insane health care system is replaced.
            Stop Quoting Ben

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Swissy
              he has already warned that his previous promises may be "delayed" due to the bailout.
              We need to spend more. We need to give some money to the states too.
              I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
              - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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              • #37
                I doubt that people will vote on the 2nd quarter having grown when the 3rd quarter has seen something of a collapse. "Oh yeah, I may be unemployed and homeless today, but four months ago, whew, we had three percent growth!"
                Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

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                • #38
                  I doubt that people will vote on the 2nd quarter having grown when the 3rd quarter has seen something of a collapse.
                  I agree. I doubt the model will hold under such extreme circumstances.

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                  • #39
                    Let the good times roll!

                    The Dow's down just 128 points!

                    And, interest rates are down, too! Woohoo!
                    B♭3

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                    • #40
                      What difference does it make if the interest rates are low if no one will lend you money!?!
                      Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles
                        What difference does it make if the interest rates are low if no one will lend you money!?!
                        Why do you hate America, Comrade? We haven't had two straight quarters of economic contraction! Therefore we're not in a recessio-hoozit-whatzits! WOOHOO!

                        Let the good times roll!
                        B♭3

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                        • #42
                          It is, actually, a good time... if you just imagine the stock market as a ski slope the linerider's going down...
                          B♭3

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                          • #43
                            Low interest rates only means people aren't investing and spending.
                            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Mrs Snuggles


                              Why do you hate America, Comrade? We haven't had two straight quarters of economic contraction! Therefore we're not in a recessio-hoozit-whatzits! WOOHOO!

                              Let the good times roll!
                              It wouldn't surprise if the NBER would call bull**** on the Q2 GDP report and declare a recession had in fact begun during that period already.
                              DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Colonâ„¢


                                It wouldn't surprise if the NBER would call bull**** on the Q2 GDP report and declare a recession had in fact begun during that period already.
                                Remember the latest round of bad things started in mid-September. People in Q2 still thought the worst was over.
                                "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
                                -Joan Robinson

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