So, why is Hillary still in the race?

[Lancer]

The 'Donkey' is democrat, right? So if he were caught with one at least he wouldn't be going outside his party for a piece of, erm, ass, yes?

[KrazyHorse]

I understand that this is a point they will try to make, but as far as I can see there aren't enough people left to make it to....

[Lancer]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I understand that this is a point they will try to make, but as far as I can see there aren't enough people left to make it to....

That and it's a Mexican donkey, it makes a difference...

[PLATO]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I understand that this is a point they will try to make, but as far as I can see there aren't enough people left to make it to....

Politically speaking...there is still a lot of time before the convention. Superdelegates can switch anytime they want. Hillary's mission is to give them enough evidence that she can beat McCain and that Obama can't. Regardless of what anybody says now, if the superdelegates come to believe that then the party will find a reason to put her forward as the candidate.

For example...Florida is a critical state. The most recent polling shows Obama trailing McCain, but Clinton beating him.

There are many states that will vote for the democratic candidtae no matter who they are....just as there are many that will vote for McCain no matter who runs against him. Hillary is working very hard in the "swing" states to build a case that she is the one who is electable no matter what the "pledged" delegate count is.

Furthermore, do not put it past the Clintons to try to get to the pledged delegates as well. They are free to vote differently (although it is unlikely) once the convention gets here.

_________________

One has to believe that the Clintons have their plan. Given the track record of them being able to pull of startling political victories in the past, I put nothing beyond them.

[Lancer]

Does McCain stand a chance in your view? (Potential democrat extra-national beastiality aside)

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Lancer
Does McCain stand a chance in your view? (Potential democrat extra-national beastiality aside)

Sure. While it looks bad for the Republicans overall, there is a huge amount of time between now and November. It would be quite easy for eithier candidtae to do something stupid. Let's hope neither candidate decides to drive a tank for example.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Lancer
Does McCain stand a chance in your view? (Potential democrat extra-national beastiality aside)

I think he does. But because McCain is honest, moderate, reasonable and pragmatic, he risks alienating the Republican base.

[Imran Siddiqui]

And think about it, if Obama is "Client #10" of the Emperor's VIP Club, Hillary can pull the superdelegates and win easily, whereas if Obama had the nomination without the supers, Clinton would lose even if a mega scandal hit Obama (most likely).

[Rufus T. Firefly]

It's #4 (and welcome back, KH). The only good argument that Clinton has left -- and it is a good one -- is that she can move Ohio or Florida into the Dem column while keeping Pennsylvania and Michigan in the fold. That's the formula for a Democratic victory. Obama may perform awesomely nationwide, but that just means that the Dems will lose red states by smaller margins. The ability of Obama to turn red states blue is very, very open to question; with Hillary, not so much.

So it's #4. And, yes, she is delusional if she thinks the superdelegates have the cajones to be that Machiavellian (or to weather the ****storm that would result from picking her).

[Imran Siddiqui]

This map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Shows the validity of Rufus' argument. In particular look at Florida and Ohio (especially Florida, where polls show McCain beating Obama pretty handily, but losing against Clinton). All the while, betting that states like Texas aren't going to be all the close for Obama as the general election campaign begins in earnest.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
This map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Shows the validity of Rufus' argument. In particular look at Florida and Ohio (especially Florida, where polls show McCain beating Obama pretty handily, but losing against Clinton). All the while, betting that states like Texas aren't going to be all the close for Obama as the general election campaign begins in earnest.

A lot of people don't think those numbers will mean much down the road after Hillary has dropped out though.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
This map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Shows the validity of Rufus' argument. In particular look at Florida and Ohio (especially Florida, where polls show McCain beating Obama pretty handily, but losing against Clinton). All the while, betting that states like Texas aren't going to be all the close for Obama as the general election campaign begins in earnest.

Yep; leaving aside questions of fairness, delegate count, etc., that's the argument for Hillary. And, again, it's a good one.

But leaving aside questions of fairness, delegate count, etc., here's the argument against Hillary: she's losing. She's managed to take one of the surest things in recent American politics -- her own nomination -- and turn it into something she's struggling (probably in vain) to make happen. Not only did she manage to lose, she managed to lose to a 2/3-of-a-term black junior senator. The inability of Hillary to take out Obama raises real questions about whether she's ready to play in the big leagues and take on the GOP.

Meanwhile, Obama, who should have been the Jesse Jackson/Jerry Brown/progressive gadfly of this campaign, has shown that he can take on a more experienced, better-financed (as she was, initially), better-known, better connected candidate and beat her at her own game.

So if I were a Superdelegate, I'd certainly be asking myself, "who's more likely to take Ohio and/or Florida?" But I'd also be asking myself, "who has actually shown that they can cope with adversity in a campaign -- vs. who has been slow to react, or even paralyzed, by sudden, unexpected developments? Who has shown that they can come from an underdog position and win -- vs. who has shown that they can take a solid lead and blow it? And who has shown that they can appeal to the kinds of independents that are likely to otherwise come out for McCain?"

I'm not a superdelegate, but I am a Pennsylvania voter, and those are exactly the questions I'm asking.

Finally, an observation: Clinton's biggest errors in this campaign have been that she's surrounded herself with people who tell her what she wants to hear, that she continues to pursue strategies even after it's evident that they fail, and that she retains boneheaded advisors because she values loyalty above competence. We're just about to get rid of a president who has governeed that way, and I don't think we can afford another one.

[DinoDoc]

I'm not a superdelegate, ....

Given how many primary ballots you've recieved, why not?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by DinoDoc

I'm not a superdelegate, ....

Given how many primary ballots you've recieved, why not?

Because that makes me a Supervoter, not a Superdelegate.

[rah]

I got a chuckle out of this one in the paper today.