So, why is Hillary still in the race?

[rah]

She still has a slim chance.

I don't think the dems want her to drop out just yet.
They're still getting more coverage due to the race not being decided. I think they believe that this has more +s the negatives at the moment. There is still plenty of time for a unity love fest to occur.

I do think the party knows the dangers of the super delegates going against the popular vote.

My bet is as we get closer to the convention, more party officials will privately recommend that she drops. As long as we don't get any donkey sex scandals.

[snoopy369]

I'm assuming she drops after PA if it doesn't go massively (65/35 or better) her way.

[Kidlicious]

Re: So, why is Hillary still in the race?

Because people with political science degrees don't know enough math?

[Ramo]

Would you give up the one shot at your dream if you were a few points down with two months to go, and there were issues like FLA/MICH still outstanding, and you've won all the big name states save Ill?

The "big state" meme is utterly absurd. I can't believe the Clinton campaign is running with it.

FL+MI gets Clinton near-parity only if Obama doesn't get any delegates from MI and you include Clinton's current super advantage. Which, needless to say, ain't gonna happen.

There's a pledged gap of ~160. If you include the add-on delegates (elected officials that become pledged delegates) and the Pelosi club (supers that will vote for the pledged leader regardless of previous commitments or lack thereof), Clinton has a super lead of something like 5.

If you look at current polls, Clinton could be able to make up 30-40 delegates in the remaining states. However, Obama tends to catch up in polls as races get closer (look at PA), so I wouldn't necessarily bet on that. That leaves the lead at 115-125.

If Obama concedes FL, Clinton nets ~40, and that puts Obama's lead at 75-85. If Obama concedes MI, with him getting unallocated (which would be very generous to Clinton - that represents a 15% lead, as opposed to a 10% lead indicated by exit polls, or an even race indicated by current polls), Clinton nets ~25, putting Obama's lead at 50-60.

There are ~250 remaining supers. Keeping in mind that supers have been flocking to Obama en masse over the past couple months (Clinton's super lead has declined by something like 70%, excluding add-ons and the Pelosi club), Clinton would be extremely lucky to get 50% of those supers. But to beat that spread, Obama only needs 40%.

And if Obama does do phenomenally bad in future races for whatever reason, he still is likely to have control of the credentials committee, and can prevent said generous allocation to Clinton. That would mean Clinton would need a much higher proportion the remaining supers. The Dem leadership may be a bunch of fools, but they're not going to **** with their most loyal constituency like that.

[Ramo]

edit: also, if she goes all the way to the convention, she probably has a better chance of concessions out of the party leaders (e.g. majority leader in the Senate) by bowing out then.

But she's not actually a serious threat at the convention, so that's not going to happen. By staying in the race, she's only alienating influential Senators who want to get on with the fall campaign (see Leahy or Dodd's comments). What she could've parlayed (and perhaps could still) for Majority Leader is an earlier exit from the race.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by rah
She still has a slim chance.

I don't think the dems want her to drop out just yet.
They're still getting more coverage due to the race not being decided. I think they believe that this has more +s the negatives at the moment. There is still plenty of time for a unity love fest to occur.

The only reason I can see the party leadership being fine with the current process is not the media coverage being an overall +, but that they're using the interim to make sure that there are no insurmountable skeletons in Obama's closet.

As long as Hillary remains a viable candidate she's good for a fallback position.

This works as long as the attacks from Hillary come from the same direction as the attacks from McCain would. Otherwise you just rough Obama up without fully exploring the right's attack strategy.

[rah]

There's still the REZCO trial, his priest, and a few minor things. The party could be hoping that keeping it a contest will give them an idea how fast these fade into the background or if they will be long term negatives. So your arguement carries a lot of weight.

They are getting considerably more press at the moment and I think they like that quite a bit and I believe this is still part of the equation.

[Ramo]

But it looks like he survived. His approval ratings are bouncing back to the pre-Wright era (I don't see how Rezko becomes an issue, absent new revelations). I think these are the sorts of arguments that Dems tell themselves as a consolation for not having a presumptive nominee yet, but ending the race sooner rather than later (i.e. after PA), and starting to define McCain, would be far more valuable than this "testing."

[Zkribbler]

So, why is Hillary still in the race?

Simple. If she stays in the race, she might win. If she drops out, she can't win.

[KrazyHorse]

So (1) then?

[rah]

Probably.

But let's consider. If she doesn't win the nomination and OBAMA wins the presidency, she won't get another chance to run for 8 years and that's probably too late for her. Her only chance to try again would be in 4 years if McCain won the presidency. Hmmmmm

[Ecthy]

So that's why she's splitting the democratic camp now. She'll probably even run for office either way just to split the democratic vote.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by rah
Probably.

But let's consider. If she doesn't win the nomination and OBAMA wins the presidency, she won't get another chance to run for 8 years and that's probably too late for her. Her only chance to try again would be in 4 years if McCain won the presidency. Hmmmmm

i.e. (2)...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ecthy
She'll probably even run for office either way just to split the democratic vote.

Running as an independent would be a bridge too far, dude. You obviously don't have a feel for American politics.

[Ramo]

She's not getting another shot at the Presidency. Democrats hate losers, even in primaries (the last successful loser to get the nod was Gore '88/'00), she pissed a whole lot of Democrats off, she's going to lose as a pseudo-incumbent, and the gender bias against women is stronger as they get older. I think ultimately she realizes that, and is hoping for an Obama collapse even if the chances are miniscule. The problem for everyone else in the party is that she doesn't want to run a half-assed Huckabee-like campaign where her loss looks assured and her support completely collapses, and is willing to facilitate an Obama collapse (saying that Wright's on the table, 3am, praising McCain, etc.).