The new Primary Thread

[Wezil]

Can anyone tell me why she is having such trouble in the Northeast (NJ, MA, DE and CT)?

[Zkribbler]

Hillary has a couple of aces up her sleaves.

(1) She's been leading in delegate-rich California, and although Obama's been picking up momentum, half the folks have already voted by mail.

(2) She leads in the Super Delegates.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

@ Wezil - she's 12 points up in NJ, which was expected. As for CT and MA, they're both full of obama's prime demographics: African-Americans, upper-middle-class whites, and college students.

@ Zkribler - Superdelegates arer uncommitted, aren't they? So if Obama got some momentum going, they could swich to his side. Besides, one good way for the Dems to completely screw the pooch on this one would be to nominate Hillary via the superdelegates even if Obama leads in the commited delegate count. That would pretty much make surer that Obama's supporters stay home in November.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
@ Wezil - she's 12 points up in NJ, which was expected.

NJ I'm having less difficulty with than the others. I may have expected a bigger Clinton lead perhaps but no huge surprise.

As for CT and MA, they're both full of obama's prime demographics: African-Americans, upper-middle-class whites, and college students.

African Americans? Really? As a larger % than other states?

UMCW - Why aren't they in Hillary's camp? It seems they should be her demographic.

College Students - Yeah. I see that one. Plenty of colleges and Obama has seemed to inspire the younger crowd.

[Dinner]

Voting hasn't even stopped and Fox News is trying to minimize McCain's huge showing. I guess they'll do anything to try to under cut the guy and build up Romney.

To be fair it appears Romney wasn't given a knock out blow but he's clearly down on one knee. If he'd lost his home state then he'd be DOA but it seems like he's holding on by his finger nails.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Wezil


NJ I'm having less difficulty with the others. I may have expected a bigger Clinton lead perhaps but no huge surprise.



African Americans? Really? As a larger % than other states?

UMCW - Why aren't they in Hillary's camp? It seems they should be her demographic.

College Students - Yeah. I see that one. Plenty of colleges and Obama has seemed to inspire the younger crowd.

Not sure how Mass compares, but Conn has a surprisinglly large black population. As for UMCWs, they tend to be more affluent (obviously), more educated, and more progressive than the party as a whole; Obama's high-minded rhetoric strikes more of a cord with them (Hillary, by contrast, is doing much better with working-class voters).

[Harry Tuttle]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Voting hasn't even stopped and Fox News is trying to minimize McCain's huge showing. I guess they'll do anything to try to under cut the guy and build up Romney.

For once I wholeheartedly agree with you. Foxnews has definitely been downplaying McCain.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
Hillary has a couple of aces up her sleaves.

(1) She's been leading in delegate-rich California, and although Obama's been picking up momentum, half the folks have already voted by mail.

But the delegates split so taking more delegates in CA doesn't mean much if you don't get more in the other states as well.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly


Not sure how Mass compares, but Conn has a surprisinglly large black population. As for UMCWs, they tend to be more affluent (obviously), more educated, and more progressive than the party as a whole; Obama's high-minded rhetoric strikes more of a cord with them (Hillary, by contrast, is doing much better with working-class voters).

Alright. I'll buy that.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
obama's prime demographics: African-Americans, upper-middle-class whites, and college students.

Wouldn't you say the third category is just part of the second?

[Wezil]

past students and current

soon-to-be upper middle class whites perhaps?

[Darius871]

Well most college students are just the kids of upper-middle-class whites... that's pretty much the same group from where I'm sitting.

[Wezil]

You don't think the perspective of age matters at all?

[Darius871]

Sure, at that age they're all hopped up on bright-eyed idealistic platitudes about "change" and "hope," so they'll be voting for Obamamama anyway. The result is the same.

[Dracon II]

Watching the CNN feed in Australia at the moment. One of the panelists on the local network is an old lecturer of mine...

Its a very interesting process. A bit confusing though, coming from a country where the party leader is elected in a private meeting of parliamentary party members.