Planet Earth without the USA

[Vesayen]

How many of the worlds wealthiest entities, are U.S. corporations?

I don't remember offhand, but a shocking number are(as in I remember being shocked the first time I saw the list).

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
I quite understand China has other markets for its exports. I rather suspect the complete loss of the US market would be traumatic for them - its not like they can make it up with additional sales somewhere else in this scenario - almost EVERY other current or potential market is stressed, and some are collapsing. What happens to Chinese exports to Mexico? To Japan?

The loss of 20% of the world economic activity would be a huge hit for everyone. After all, if China's exports go down, commodity prices would collapse, and economies as varied as Chile's and Australia's would take HUGE hits, as would every oil exporter. But lets be realisitc, while a 20% hit is vast, that still leaves 80% of the world economic activity going.

So no, i don't think China collapses, at least, anymore than every other major world trading power. And authoritarian governments have shown a strong resiliance in the face of economic collapse (ie, they remain in power even as the masses starve).

As for the point of US corporations, what happens to their overseas assets would keep lawyers busy for years. After all, one assumes their entire market capitalization, if in dollars, goes up in smoke, but what about their factories overseas and such?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap

So no, i don't think China collapses, at least, anymore than every other major world trading power. And authoritarian governments have shown a strong resiliance in the face of economic collapse (ie, they remain in power even as the masses starve).

It depends. Indonesias military govt fell during the '98 recession, for ex. Totalitarian govts hang on, like Nkor, but thats not China. Mugabe hangs on, but hes got legitimacy based on his leadership of the struggle against the white regime.

Chinas govt has basically little real ideology,its legitimacy is heavily based on economic growth. It MIGHT survive the global recession/depression brought on by the disappearance of the US, or it might not.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


So no, i don't think China collapses, at least, anymore than every other major world trading power.

Much more so than the EU - the EUs economic profile is much more like the US's and they are much more likely to pick up exports in this scen.

[Patroklos]

Even less then that, close coastal waters are effectivley "part" of the country in the same way lakes are, even if they are under water.

Territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles, EEZs extend a 100 or more depending. EEZs, however, are still international waters for all other intents and purposes.

[Heraclitus]

I wonder what the new balance of power would be 1 or 2 years after the US disappears? Does the EU become a major player or do the countries squabble amongst themselves? What happens to Russia as oil prices sink and a global depression starts, crippling their economy?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Heraclitus
I wonder what the new balance of power would be 1 or 2 years after the US disappears? Does the EU become a major player or do the countries squabble amongst themselves? What happens to Russia as oil prices sink and a global depression starts, crippling their economy?

One advantage Russia has, is that alot of their hydrocarbon exports are in the form of natural gas, which is less globally fungible than oil, and their prime market is the EU, which is probably the strongest economy.

Again, IMO, IF the EU can hold together, it doesnt become a major player. It becomes THE major player.

[Heraclitus]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


One advantage Russia has, is that alot of their hydrocarbon exports are in the form of natural gas, which is less globally fungible than oil, and their prime market is the EU, which is probably the strongest economy.

Again, IMO, IF the EU can hold together, it doesnt become a major player. It becomes THE major player.

True, true but who takes charge of the EU though? What would be the new UK outlook on the world? Does it become EU-centric or isolationist?


BTW I wonder what happens to Israel?

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by Heraclitus
BTW I wonder what happens to Israel?

Their economy, like Egypt's and Jordan's, "tanks." But they'll be much better of compared to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, etc.

[OzzyKP]

An interesting question. Anyone have any good numbers on how many Americans are overseas now?

It found that definite data on the number of homes owned abroad was difficult to gauge, but its conservative estimate was that US citizens owned between 500,000 and 600,000 properties overseas. Of these, 370,000-440,000 were second homes, 54,000-63,000 were properties owned by retired American citizens living abroad and 80,000-100,000 units have been purchased by Americans working and living overseas. The report examined several governmental sources and concluded that Americans living overseas, either working or retired, would account for the majority of overseas homes owned by its citizens. With over 4,100,000 US citizens living abroad, the majority are in Mexico (24.9%), Canada (16.5%), the UK (5.4%), Germany (5.1%), Israel (4.4%) and Italy (4.1%). Of these, a substantial number were US citizens working abroad who have the highest disposable income and are the most likely to purchase a property overseas. US ex-pats living in Singapore ($US185,000), followed by the UK ($165,000), earned the most money on average, while those working in China ($140,000), Hong Kong ($139,000), Indonesia ($128,000) and Russia ($123,000) also had higher earnings, which could potentially lead to overseas property sales. In Europe as a whole, over 100,000 US citizens filed a tax return back in the US. They accounted for 31.8% of US citizens living abroad and their average wage is $100,488. The NAR concluded in its White Paper that it is difficult to accurately quantify the true figures of Americans owning a home abroad, but say it could even be higher than their conservative estimate of 600,000 and possibly exceeding 1million homes.

So this says there are 4 million Americans living overseas. Everyone is focusing on our military, but there are a lot more Americans than just them. Vacationers, missionaries, businessmen, retirees, ex-pats, etc.

Has anyone seen 28 Weeks Later? After zombies empty out the UK, the US comes in and works on resettling British ex-pats. I could see NATO doing the same thing with the United States. Helping us get back on our feet. I think we'd work on reestablishing our government and try to exert a claim to our original territory. Between our forces returning home (no, I doubt they are gonna try conquering anyone) and protection from NATO I think it'll still be pretty damn big deterrent preventing anyone from taking over the US militarily.

We will, however, have a lot of land and natural resources that will need utilization. NATO would help finance rebuilding (as much as they can with the economic collapse) and I think the biggest initial problem would be lack of labor. So the reestablished United States of America would quickly find itself in a demographic crunch. With Chinese, Indian, Mexican, etc pioneers accepting rebuilding contracts the "Native Americans" (or native USians) would find themselves outnumbered quick. That would lead to some problems.

I agree that Mormons would quickly resettle their promised land, not just Utah btw, but Illinois as well. The religious dimension to this issue is HUGE. I think we have less to worry about China and Russia becoming militant and, as someone pointed out, the Arabs taking this as justification that Allah has destroyed the Great Satin. Moderate governments would be toppled and wars would begin.

At the same time Christians would probably also see this as the Rapture and also see the increasing warlike nature of the Arab countries (no doubt invading Israel again) and interpret it as Armageddon (and ya know, they'd probably be right). I imagine secularized countries like Europe would find their way back to faith pretty quick (either converting to militant Islam or renewing devotion to Christianity, perhaps in some new sects that crop up). I think even non-western nations would realize something big is going on and that Buddha, Krishna, Confucious, etc never said anything about 300 million people vanishing into thin air (unless I'm mistaken) and realize that Islam and Christianity may have answers to what is happening and convert in droves. Though, again, I imagine new branches of each religion would crop up. It wouldn't just be the same denominations we are familiar with.

So perhaps Europe and South America would intercede on the side of Israel and other Arab neighbors. China would find some new markets by selling to both sides. Militants in Pakistan might spark another, far more deadly (this time nuclear) war, with India. The returning Americans (not all of them would return, but plenty would) would probably want to help but would be more focused on rebuilding their own nation. Maybe they'd sell off military hardware to Europe in exchange for rebuilding dollars.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Heraclitus


True, true but who takes charge of the EU though? What would be the new UK outlook on the world? Does it become EU-centric or isolationist?

With the US gone, UK has less leverage, I think. All big EU countries will benefit in industrial exports. France will benefit in ag exports, while most other major EU players will suffer from rising grain prices, I think. Poland will be in a worse position politically, of course, with the US gone.

Will a relatively stronger France overshoot its power, or will it be generous to its EU partners? Will Germany be tempted to play off Russia against its EU partners? (Assuming a reasonable Russia, a messianic Russia and all bets are off)

The rationale for the EU to overcome internal squabbles is strong, this is an exceptionally dangerous world.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by LordShiva


Their economy, like Egypt's and Jordan's, "tanks." But they'll be much better of compared to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, etc.

Aside from aid, the US is their biggest export market and they are grain importers. Tough economic times.

Politically, it depends. If Iran comes out swinging, the Sunni Arabs may make common cause with Israel, to some degree.

For the most part, Israel will try to move closer to the EU, making concessions to it as needed. (OTOH, folks in the Israeli right will discount Europes power and goodwill, and may attempt to focus on "peace through strength alone" - EU would have to use economic power to head that off, most likely - it COULD get messy) If the concessions required prove to onerous, Israel accepts India's offer of vassalization.

[Vesayen]

Ozzy, you seriously think some of the European countries would convert to ISLAM lol?

No one will try to invade Israel again, for the same reason the U.S. and Russia never came to blows. You don't attack someone who has nukes.

Israel has nukes and everyone knows it, if there was a serious threat, they'd make the attacking country glow in the dark. No goverment in the region is so fundamentalist and crazy to want their own destruction.

Fundamentalist islamic states are not run by lunatics on the scale of suicide bombers, they are run by those clever enough to control the rest of the fundamentalists, which actually, makes them less crazy. The "craziest" goverment in the middle east was proboably the Talbian, not that it would ever of attacked Israel anyway. Even despots and fundamentalists heads of state have a sense of self preservation.

[Perfection]

Well, I'd imagine every other country would be trying to figure out how the hell to avoid a similar fate!

[onodera]

Originally posted by Vesayen No one will try to invade Israel again, for the same reason the U.S. and Russia never came to blows. You don't attack someone who has nukes.

If Hezbollah attacks en-masse from Lebanon, which country will you nuke? Nuke any, and everyone around will unite in righteous indignation against the Zionist aggressor.