Our foreign policy is retarded, part MMMMCXXV5billion

[snoopy369]

I definitely think the only solution is finding something else for them to grow, by the way. Something that they can get good money for. However, we have to tie that to active prevention of poppy growing. If we do both at once, then there is an incentive to grow things that might not give as much money as poppies, but the danger of losing everything to soldiers burning it down would tip it towards growing the legitimate crop.

Maybe they can grow bananas...

[Wezil]

If getting rid of the poppies is the goal then the best approach would be to let the Taliban run the country again.

An article from February 2001...

JALALABAD, Afghanistan (February 15, 2001 8:19 p.m. EST
U.N. drug control officers said the Taliban religious militia has nearly wiped out opium production in Afghanistan -- once the world's largest producer -- since banning poppy cultivation last summer.

A 12-member team from the U.N. Drug Control Program spent two weeks searching most of the nation's largest opium-producing areas and found so few poppies that they do not expect any opium to come out of Afghanistan this year.

"We are not just guessing. We have seen the proof in the fields," said Bernard Frahi, regional director for the U.N. program in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He laid out photographs of vast tracts of land cultivated with wheat alongside pictures of the same fields taken a year earlier -- a sea of blood-red poppies.

A State Department official said Thursday all the information the United States has received so far indicates the poppy crop had decreased, but he did not believe it was eliminated.

Last year, Afghanistan produced nearly 4,000 tons of opium, about 75 percent of the world's supply, U.N. officials said. Opium -- the milky substance drained from the poppy plant -- is converted into heroin and sold in Europe and North America. The 1999 output was a world record for opium production, the United Nations said -- more than all other countries combined, including the "Golden Triangle," where the borders of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar meet.

Mullah Mohammed Omar, the Taliban's supreme leader, banned poppy growing before the November planting season and augmented it with a religious edict making it contrary to the tenets of Islam.

The Taliban, which has imposed a strict brand of Islam in the 95 percent of Afghanistan it controls, has set fire to heroin laboratories and jailed farmers until they agreed to destroy their poppy crops.

Rest of the article here: http://opioids.com/afghanistan/index.html

[Ramo]

2) Do nothing in particular wrt poppies.

3) Buy them off by subsidizing them to do something else. This, of course, runs the risk of paying them not to grow poppies and them growing poppies anyway.

4) Legalize/tax poppy growing. This would boost revenue for the Afgan government, though it would be interesting to see how collection of those taxes goes. The downside, of course, is that at least some of those poppies will end up here in the form of heroin and we don't like that part.

If you're going to do 2 and 3, you might as well do 4.... Since taxing only reduces the incentive to produce poppies...

BTW, if it isn't already clear, I think 3 should be integral to our policy. Karzai's already planning to do this, but not at the appropriate scale IIUC.

[BeBMan]

Maybe it's time for an alternate foreign policy, fortunately polytubbies already outlined it:

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=170843

[Patroklos]

What's great is that proponents of opium eradication defend this policy by saying that the Taleban is generating lots of revenue from it. But that's utterly circular logic; if the Afghan gov't legalized and taxed opium, they'd be getting said revenue instead of the Taleban.

No, you didn't. I also said it is short sighted to get an entire nation, people or government, to become depenant on a cash crop illegal in 90% of the world.

There is no way around it, they have to learn that this quick cash is dead end, or it will turn them into exactly what they were before.

I don't think the best way to do that is spraying.

[Ramo]

I also said it is short sighted to get an entire nation, people or government, to become depenant on a cash crop illegal in 90% of the world.

You're batting at a strawman, as usual. Obviously we should incentivize the producion of other crops. You don't have to do that by spraying opium or ineffectually cutting down 9% of the crop.

[Patroklos]

If getting rid of the poppies is the goal then the best approach would be to let the Taliban run the country again.

That is the problem with improving security and economic viability; they are using it to get the biggest bang for their buck. Not unexpected. Unfortunately, it is so very short sighted (Ramo, you disappoint me so) to suggest this as a viable economic basis for a growing nation.

And Arrian, if you think it is would be hard to get them to abandon poppies now, just imagine doing it in 20 years when every facet of their society is linked to the trade. Time does not wean in this case.

And Ramo, you might think letting heroin flow through the streets is an awesome idea, but some drugs are not illegal just to give the cigar smoking, brandy sipping white big shots something to talk about. I support the legalization of weed, heroin kills.

[Patroklos]

You're batting at a strawman, as usual. Obviously we should incentivize the producion of other crops. You don't have to do that by spraying opium or ineffectually cutting down 9% of the crop.

Not so much.

Have you been using Heroin today? How many times do I have to say "I don't think the best way to do that is spraying."?

ineffectually cutting down 9% of the crop.

That would certainly be effective if combined with other incentives. Honey and a gun...

[PLATO]

I actually thought there might be a point here until I realized this was just a way to moan about legalizing drugs.

I doubt that it would cripple the average Afghan since there was almost no production just a few years ago.

If the Taliban is using this to generate revenue (taxing the farmer) then it becomes a legitimate target. Leaflets should be dropped explaining this and offering alternatives and deadlines. Then spray the crap out of the non-compliers.

These leaflets should be from the Afghan government and the eradication done in accordance with Afghan law.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by PLATO

These leaflets should be from the Afghan government and the eradication done in accordance with Afghan law.

And if the Afghan government says "no" (as they appear to be doing)?

[Patroklos]

They just said no to spraying.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Patroklos
They just said no to spraying.

Isn't that what we are talking about?

Plato's preceeding sentence was:

Then spray the crap out of the non-compliers.

[Patroklos]

The conversation moved on to the politics of basing an economy on poppies. Right now 9% of the crop is destroyed by physically cutting/burning crops.

[Wezil]

You/we are going to have a hard time physically cutting crops on turf we don't control.

[Arrian]

I actually thought there might be a point here until I realized this was just a way to moan about legalizing drugs.

No. It's pointing out that our government's obssession with the War on Drugs*is conflicting with our ability to win the War on Terror* at least in Afganistan.

-Arrian

* Maybe we should declare War on War. Yeah!