Bush: OBL wants a safe haven in Iraq

[GePap]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Why is it so easy to believe that he's like a super evil genious, like in the movies? I think people overestimate him and his organizations abilities. The US should have captured him. I'm not saying they certainly should have, but I would have said in 2001 that it is highly unlikely that they would not have captured him by 2007. I thought he would be caught within a couple months.

Also I don't think he has that many resources, and I don't think his organization is that big, or at least it's not that organized.

Pekka is right, it is not easy to catch one man. Hell, Eric Rudolph hid for five years. If the US could not find one man without an organization INSIDE THE US ITSELF for five years, why on earth would you think it easy to catch a man living half a world away in a place the US doesn;t send troops, with little rule of law, and where the locals are sympathetic to the fugitive AND have a tradition if not turning on guests???

[MarkG]

experts agree!

[Proteus_MST]

If I were some commander from Al Quaeda if I wanted Bin Laden to appear alive I would make it this way:

Have Bin Laden record a bunch of videofiles during his lifetime, some in which he makes statements that can be applied to every time, statements like "Al Quaeda wants peace with the US as long as they lave the midle east" or "Al Quaeda want the arab world to stand united against the US aggressors".
and after his death I would just release these videofiles, of course at large time intervals, large enough that the stock of videofiles will last some years, but still frequent enough to make it apear like Osama is still alive.

Something that we observe nowadays

And if I were in the Bush government (and unscrupulous enough ) and knew that Osama is very probably dead, I wouldn´t state this publicly.
Osama is still some public enemy for the average american Joe on the street. And therefore it is very valuable (for the government) to make it appear like Osama is still alive, as then you can make plans of the government sound like a good idea in the ears of Mr. average Joe, by just throwing in that these plans have to be executed because you want to catch Bin Laden, or because you want to keep Bin Laden from executing some plans of his own.

[MarkG]

YES, WE ARE FINALLY SUCCESFULL! OBL IS TIRED!

'Embrace Islam' Bin Laden urges

Bin Laden looks drawn and tired in the video

A new video tape purportedly made by al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden has urged the American people to embrace Islam in order to stop the war in Iraq.

Unnamed US officials said they believed the speaker, who makes no overt threats against the US, was indeed Bin Laden. It is his first video in three years.

The release of the tape comes near the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

US President George W Bush said the message was "a reminder of the dangerous world in which we live".

"It's important that we show resolve and determination to protect ourselves, deny al-Qaeda safe havens," said the president, who is on a visit to Australia. Date references suggest it may have been made as recently as this summer, US officials studying the tape said.

'Two choices'

A short excerpt from the 30-minute tape was aired by al-Jazeera TV on Friday evening.

It shows Osama Bin Laden sitting at a table, dressed in a white robe and turban and beige cloak. His beard looks shorter and darker than in the video issued in 2004.

Beneath him a banner reads in English: "A message from Sheikh Osama Bin Laden to the American people."

The speaker makes no overt threats to the US and did not directly call for attacks, according to transcripts of the tape obtained by several media organisations in the United States.

Instead, he tells the American people that they have failed to persuade the Bush administration to stop the war in Iraq.

"You made one of your greatest mistakes, in that you neither brought to account nor punished those who waged this war," the speaker in the tape says, according to the transcript obtained by ABC News.

"You permitted Bush to complete his first term, and stranger still, chose him for a second term, which gave him a clear mandate from you... to continue to murder our people in Iraq and Afghanistan".

The speaker tells the American public that there are two ways to end the war in Iraq: "The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you."

The second way, he continues, is to reject America's democratic system and convert to Islam.

"It has now become clear to you and the entire world the impotence of the democratic system and how it plays with the interest of the peoples and their blood by sacrificing soldiers and populations to achieve the interests of the major corporations".

"I invite you to embrace Islam," the speaker says.

"The leaders of the West - especially Bush, [Tony] Blair, [Nicolas] Sarkozy and [Gordon] Brown - still talk about freedom and human rights with a flagrant disregard for the intellects of human beings," he adds.

The reference to French President Nicolas Sarkozy would indicate that the tape was recorded after Mr Sarkozy's victory in May.

'New plots'

Correspondents say a new video would serve to dispel persistent rumours that the al-Qaeda leader has died.

The US Department of Homeland Security said it had no credible information of an imminent threat in the wake of the video announcement.

Deputy state department spokesman Tom Casey said: "I don't think that anything he is likely to say or do is going to change our resolve or the resolve of our international partners to confront extremism."

But in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Friday, CIA director Michael Hayden warned that al-Qaeda was plotting new attacks on the US.

"Our analysts assess with high confidence that al-Qaeda's central leadership is planning high impact plots against the American homeland," he said.

"Al-Qaeda is focusing on targets that would produce mass casualties, dramatic destruction and significant economic aftershocks."

$50m bounty

In his October 2004 video, Osama Bin Laden threatened new attacks against the US on the eve of the presidential election.

Another tape - audio - was released in January 2006. It referred to identifiable events, including the situation in Somalia.

Bin Laden did appear in footage on a militant website in July this year but the clip was undated and correspondents said it might be old footage, which had been recycled.

Al-Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri has appeared in a greater number of videos, including one berating the Pakistani army's assault on radical Islamists in Islamabad's Red Mosque in July.

The US Senate voted to double the bounty on Bin Laden to $50m (£24.6m) in July.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...st/6984102.stm

[MarkG]

but some bbc idiots are saying he looks younger!!
they are a terror to our sucess!

Trimmed Bin Laden in media-savvy war
By Frank Gardner
BBC security correspondent

After an unexplained absence of nearly three years, the al-Qaeda leader, Osama Bin Laden, has appeared once more on a 30-minute video posted on an Islamist website.

The last time he was seen in a video was in October 2004, in an address to the American electorate just before the US presidential elections.

His beard appears dark, thick and trimmed, although analysts have suggested that, rather than being dyed, it may be actually false, and that to help avoid detection he is clean-shaven these days

Since then he has delivered an audio message in January 2006, again posted on Islamist websites.

Now this latest video message, released just before the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, will dispel the growing rumours that he has been dead for some time and remind both his followers and his enemies that the man with a $50m bounty on his head is still at large.

At first glance the 50-year old Osama Bin Laden, known to his fellow jihadists as Abu Abdullah, looks younger than he did in 2004.

Gone is the straggly, unkempt beard that was heavily flecked with grey.

Instead, his beard appears dark, thick and trimmed, although analysts have suggested that rather than being dyed, it may be actually false, and that to help avoid detection he is clean-shaven these days.

The al-Qaeda leader's face still looks tired and lined, as befits a fugitive who may well have to sleep in different locations almost every night, but it is not quite as gaunt or exhausted looking as it was three years ago.

His clean white turban or, 'imma, is the same and Bin Laden wears a traditional white Saudi thaub - a long-sleeved shirt that extends all the way down below the knees.

Over this he is seen wearing a cream-coloured bisht - a cloak worn by respected sheikhs, tribal elders and religious leaders in the Arab world.

Location

Not surprisingly, the video gives little away about where it was made.

Unlike an earlier video which showed Bin Laden and his strategic mentor Ayman al-Zawahiri striding down a mountainside, this one has been filmed against a plain cloth background.

That previous video was intensively studied by both the Arab media and Western intelligence analysts to try to determine where it was shot, and it was presumed to be close to the ill-defined border that separates Afghanistan from Pakistan.

The last known sighting of Bin Laden by anyone other than his very close entourage was in late 2001 as he prepared to flee from his stronghold in the caves of Tora Bora.

He is widely assumed to have travelled east, across into Pakistan to be given hospitality and shelter by certain local Pashtun tribesmen loyal to the Taleban and opposed to their own government led by President Pervez Musharraf.

Osama Bin Laden is a tall, distinctive-looking man, and it is highly unlikely he would be able to pass unnoticed in urban areas such as a crowded bazaar in Karachi.

This video comes just a few days before the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, at a time when Americans are growing weary of the war in Iraq and the whole "war on terror" rhetoric, and are starting to turn their attention to next year's presidential elections.

The video, bearing the mark of al-Sahab productions - al-Qaeda's media production arm, thought to based in Pakistan - is not dated, but Bin Laden does make reference to recently elected Western leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which indicates it was recorded this summer.

Wedge-driving messages

As well as reassuring his followers that he is still alive, this video is primarily directed at the US public, urging them to embrace Islam "in order to stop the war in Iraq".

Bin Laden expresses amazement that the US electorate gave President Bush a second term in office, giving Bush, he says, "a clear mandate from you... to continue to murder our people in Iraq and Afghanistan".

Events in Iraq, says Bin Laden, are "out of control" adding that President Bush "is like the one who ploughs and sows the sea. He harvests nothing but failure".

This, he says, has bled America dry economically.

Osama Bin Laden, despite his geographical isolation, has always shown a keen interest in the global media and Western journalists were able to interview him in Sudan then Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001.

Unlike some of the more psychopathic adherents of al-Qaeda, Bin Laden has often tried to sway the opinions of the Western public in the hopes of driving a wedge between them and their leaders, and between European countries and his most hated enemy, the US government.

This latest video, like earlier ones issued after the Madrid bombings in 2004 and just before the last US presidential elections, is a part of this strategy.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...st/6985086.stm

[Dr Strangelove]

I'd like to know if there is anything in the latest video that absolutely confirms that it is a recent recording. The problem is that modern technology makes it possible to doctor recorded speech and images to say and do almost anything. Anyone remember the movie Forest Gump , in which Tom Hank's character has conversations with John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Richard Nixon? If al-Qaeda has access to fairly decent technology and a sizeable library of previous recordings of OBL they should be able to doctor tapes of him indefinitely.

We should pronounce our disbelief of his continued existence and demand that he make a public appearence at the corner of Liberty and West Streets in New York City at 10am on September 11, 2007. He will be offered protection by a company of NYC's finest. Failure to do so we will pronounce him dead and ignore all further messages from the imposters.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by GePap


Pekka is right, it is not easy to catch one man. Hell, Eric Rudolph hid for five years. If the US could not find one man without an organization INSIDE THE US ITSELF for five years, why on earth would you think it easy to catch a man living half a world away in a place the US doesn;t send troops, with little rule of law, and where the locals are sympathetic to the fugitive AND have a tradition if not turning on guests???

Again, it's easy to make excuses, but did you think in 2001 that they would not be able to catch him? True it took 5 years to catch Rudolph. Most people they catch much sooner when they use the resources. 5 years max I would say for anyone.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Again, it's easy to make excuses, but did you think in 2001 that they would not be able to catch him?

I had no idea when and IF they would ever catch him.

True it took 5 years to catch Rudolph. Most people they catch much sooner when they use the resources. 5 years max I would say for anyone.

Right, tell that to the Nazi hunters, cause all those fugitives were caught by 1950......

[Pekka]

Kid, I disagree. I don't think you can really find a person if they know what to do. Depends the people he has to deal with. There's lots of people "missing" at all times, who are definitely wanted. Of course not so much resources are spent to find them.

It's all about the people who are dealing with you closely, how trustworthy they are. They are the ones that makes the crucial mistake.

Even though he isn't the genius super villain, he isn't so stupid as to use devices and carry them with him that will enable his track down. So the only way to get to him is to get a tip, of course you do that with active tracking and intel gathering, bribes, interrogation and so forth.

In case of OBL though.... I mean he won't be the most difficult man to find. He is just too high profile. He can't move around that easily. But his party is the one that has to make a mistake first or someone sells him out at this point since there's no knowledge of his current location.

I do believe the task forces would be able to take him down if they had all the resources and the priority was #1. If they had like ... a rule that if they believe they have him pinpointed in a village for example, that would give them the permission to raid it, and they could do this, or could have been doing this for this whole time, I think he would have been already caught.

But now? It's increasingly difficult. AQ has shown some old school tricks that simply aren't trackable, you're always there after the fact. Such simple methods of for example comms include mail dumps and even steganography. Not highly sophisticated, but they're definitely limiting down the amount of technology used, which is a good idea if you don't want to be tracked.

There's no magic satellites where you can punch in "find Osama". They need active leads, and they need to be on the move 24/7 if they want to get up to date location and even then it requires someone to sell him out or make a grave mistake, a mistake they obviously haven't made yet.

We got wanted war criminals that have active task forces looking for them in Europe. It's much more difficult to hide in Europe, much much more difficult. And yet they do it all the time. They've even been sold out few times and yet they are still free. It simply isn't that easy, just like OBL isn't a genius super villain, we do not have a magic capability of locating people globally if they want to stay hidden.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Pekka
Kid, I disagree. I don't think you can really find a person if they know what to do.

We've had people hide in the Sierra Nevadas (huge mountain range) in California before with necessary skills to hide, but with proper manpower they were apprehended within a few months. When you have a lot of people looking for you and they know your general location it's only a matter of time, no matter what your skills are.

I don't know how many people are combing the mountains there, but it seems to me that if you get a few hundred people out there eventually he's going to be found. I don't know if they are doing that, but they damn sould be doing that. **** the sats and ****.

[Wezil]

Although Steve Fossett has been doing an admirable job of hiding in the Nevada desert...

[Pekka]

Huge mountain range is considerably smaller than say, ME. I can always give you counter examples of people who were never found.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Pekka
Huge mountain range is considerably smaller than say, ME. I can always give you counter examples of people who were never found.

There's a recent story about some soldiers almost catching him in the Afgan/paki mountains. What's that about?

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Kidicious


There's a recent story about some soldiers almost catching him in the Afgan/paki mountains. What's that about?

Propaganda.

[Kidlicious]

yea, pretty weird story. They said that found him basically and he got away. Wtf?!

I would say if that's true he can't be far away, and I would expect his capture within month.