Bush: OBL wants a safe haven in Iraq

[Berzerker]

Thats the most recent assertion from Bush... Doesn't OBL have safe haven in Pakistan? Doesn't he have safe haven because we dont want to make Pakistan less stable for the nuclear armed dictator and his government? How would Al Qaeda have safe haven in Iraq when we can go in there any time we want? If Al Qaeda had "safe haven" (assuming all those pissed off Sunnis and Shia dont kill them), wouldn't that make it easier for us to keep an eye on them? Have you seen tapes of Al Qaeda's "training camps"?

Bush invades Iraq to attract Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda shows up
Bush says we cant leave because Al Qaeda showed up

Bu****

we're still making up excuses to stay in Iraq after lying about why we had to invade

[Pekka]

Seems to make little sense... none of this reverse psychology either, as in "it makes sense to hide in the worst possible place! Think about it!", because in this case it makes absolutely no sense at all.

[Wezil]

Didn't work for Saddam.

[alva]

...

[Kidlicious]

Re: Bush: OBL wants a safe haven in Iraq

Originally posted by Berzerker
we're still making up excuses to stay in Iraq after lying about why we had to invade

There's a lot of people in this country who don't wish to use their brains because they can't consider the possibility that our leaders are evil. What they say doesn't have to make sense. They just have to keep talking.

[Barnabas]

I was 100% sure Osama was dead, because I couldnt believe he could remain hidden all these years and not be found.

Is it a lie what you see in movies which shows the USA to be able to locate anyone with its satelites, hear all the phone calls ets?

If instead of invading Iraq, Bush had captured Osama, he would be remembered as a great president.

[Pekka]

Barnabas, it's not that simple... to track down a guy that is. You think OBL has a deal with a local provider?

He most likely uses satellite phones and avoids using them as well as much as possible and mostly talks through his closest guys. He can use cell phones as well if he wants to, it's not like we can track down guys who uses a phone for few calls only and then dumps them, as long as the people he is connected to aren't slipping.

Regular criminals, easy. They're lazy and might not understand the nitty gritty of the limitations of their technology, often believing into things that are common myths are someone had told them that this is the way it works.

But no, I'd find it very lucky if he was caught because of his communication devices and methods alone. The only way to find his ass is to find people closest to him, or take a veeeery lucky guess and find him in a diner .

And if they want to use tech that is relatively cheap even, they can always use phones that use crypto, the PKI way. And no, you aren't really going to crack that one fast, and unless you can verify that the device belongs to OBL, you can't track him down either. And I seriously doubt they're using them either.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Pekka
Barnabas, it's not that simple... to track down a guy that is. You think OBL has a deal with a local provider?

He most likely uses satellite phones and avoids using them as well as much as possible and mostly talks through his closest guys. He can use cell phones as well if he wants to, it's not like we can track down guys who uses a phone for few calls only and then dumps them, as long as the people he is connected to aren't slipping.

Regular criminals, easy. They're lazy and might not understand the nitty gritty of the limitations of their technology, often believing into things that are common myths are someone had told them that this is the way it works.

But no, I'd find it very lucky if he was caught because of his communication devices and methods alone. The only way to find his ass is to find people closest to him, or take a veeeery lucky guess and find him in a diner .

And if they want to use tech that is relatively cheap even, they can always use phones that use crypto, the PKI way. And no, you aren't really going to crack that one fast, and unless you can verify that the device belongs to OBL, you can't track him down either. And I seriously doubt they're using them either.

BS. The powers that be have every single resource in the world available. The idea that they could not find a man in 6 years is absolutely incredible.

[Pekka]

Kid, that's not what I was trying to say though. I was only answering to a question that can't you just pick up his phone calls. That isn't very simple and sometimes not even possible when the counterpart is knowledgable about things.

I didn't mean overall evasion.

[Barnabas]

I disagree with Kuci generally, but what he wrote is how I feel.

[Pekka]

No one gives a crap B. It's not what you feel, it's what you know .

Emotions - cruel deception of reality.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Barnabas
I disagree with Kuci generally, but what he wrote is how I feel.

who?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Pekka
No one gives a crap B. It's not what you feel, it's what you know .

Emotions - cruel deception of reality.

You feel like the US can't catch OBL? You certainly don't know that. How long did you think OBL was going to remain in hiding in 2001?

[Pekka]

Kid, noooooooooooooooo. I was just being a pain in the ass about someone saying "it feels like".

But to your question. I had no idea. I thought OBL would evade in the beginning a lot, but as US would push harder, at some point he would be caught and I don't mean by US troops but more like special ops or similar, or if not, then with the help of some local informants, because the money is high and it only takes one with solid info, so even when most don't want to risk it, there's always one.

I thought he was toast when they approached Tora Bora. I was suprised he'd let be caught like that, kind of stupid way, trying to fight it out when he has much more symbolic value and should try to remain alive with all costs.

So... up until that moment I thought it would take a bit longer, but I didn't think he'd be able to get out of Tora Bora, which to me "feels" weird.

Do I feel like US can't catch OBL? No. I think it's a question of resources and how much you want to commit. I'm sure there is a commitment and a vast task force trying to do that, but I don't think it's the #1 priority.

It's definitely possible, however I don't know if he will be caught or not. It's not easy to find one man who knows who to evade and has resources to do that, however, it is difficult for OBL to maintain the situation because he needs help of other people and that's always a problem. If he will be caught, I think it's going down because they got to someone who can be used to track him down or some local gives him up.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Pekka
It's not easy to find one man who knows who to evade and has resources to do that,

Why is it so easy to believe that he's like a super evil genious, like in the movies? I think people overestimate him and his organizations abilities. The US should have captured him. I'm not saying they certainly should have, but I would have said in 2001 that it is highly unlikely that they would not have captured him by 2007. I thought he would be caught within a couple months.

Also I don't think he has that many resources, and I don't think his organization is that big, or at least it's not that organized.