More Apple pwnage

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Wiglaf


You seem to take their sales figures at their word.

What they claim about their sales better be correct or the're going to be in a world of trouble.

[Wiglaf]

You don't have any data on the activation numbers. You are just making all that up.

Google?

http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2007/07/24/att-reports-146000-iphone-activations-in-first-two-days

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Asher

Isn't that the idea? They anticipated they would be distributed immediately. Expectations for the iPhone were very high...

We're talking about a 2 month period. If shipments go out everyday then there can't be an inventory build up. If sales start falling they just start shipping less right away. It goes all the way back to manufacturing.

[Wiglaf]

Of course there is. You don't think they expected to lower the price ever? You have this time period in your head in which you think the price should stay the same, and it doesn't work like that. The price should be dropped after a certain about of product is sold.

Now you are just pissing me off

You don't drop price after "a certain amount of product is sold." That makes no sense. You drop it if sales are slowing and you want to bring in more customers.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Wiglaf


Google?
http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...first-two-days

What's that link for? You told me yourself that there aren't updated activation numbers.

[Wiglaf]

Perhaps this is because they'd reveal the huge discrepancy between iPhones "sold" and iPhones actually in the hands of users.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Wiglaf


Now you are just pissing me off

You don't drop price after "a certain amount of product is sold." That makes no sense. You drop it if sales are slowing and you want to bring in more customers.

Bull****. You expect to sell a certain amount at a certain price. You plan to drop your price. They have the whole product life cycle planned out.

[Wiglaf]

I want to quote that and put it on my wall or something.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Wiglaf
Perhaps this is because they'd reveal the huge discrepancy between iPhones "sold" and iPhones actually in the hands of users.

Bull****. There aren't a bunch of phones sitting somewhere. That's ridiculous.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I'm not arguing that it's not important to AT&T. It may not be as important as it is to Apple. That doesn't mean that they shipped a **** load of inventory to their stores. That's not normal. .... OMG you know nothing about this do you?

So I suppose when Nokia launched it's highly hyped NGAGE cell phone, they didn't ship 1 million out and make a press release bragging about how they sold 1 million? And there wasn't a massive oversupply?

There was. This is normal. This is so normal that it's painful.

[Wiglaf]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Bull****. There aren't a bunch of phones sitting somewhere. That's ridiculous.

Not really.

We'd previously heard that Apple Stores would be getting somewhere around 1000 1500 units, with "flagship" stores expected to get more inventory. Based on user reports, some AT&T stores have been willing to give out numbers of inventory. The numbers have ranged in the 70-90 range for the few stores polled. Assuming these numbers are to believed, that places the first day of iPhone retail inventory at 400,000+ units.

There's 1800 AT&T stores and at 50-90 iPhones a store counting as "sold," there would be a big discrepancy between iphones activated and iphones sold.

But anyway, one more time -- why did they drop the price of the iPhone again? Say it in a more quotable, generalized form; eg "Demand does not influence the market" or something.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Asher


So I suppose when Nokia launched it's highly hyped NGAGE cell phone, they didn't ship 1 million out and make a press release bragging about how they sold 1 million? And there wasn't a massive oversupply?

There was. This is normal. This is so normal that it's painful.

When you launch a product you might overestimate sales and have an overstock, but after 2 months you pretty much know how much you are going to sell everyday. You don't have a lot of overstock these days.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Wiglaf


Not really.


There's 1800 AT&T stores and at 50-90 iPhones a store counting as "sold," there would be a big discrepancy between iphones activated and iphones sold.

That's less then 200,000. Not that significant.

But anyway, one more time -- why did they drop the price of the iPhone again? Say it in a more quotable, generalized form; eg "Demand does not influence the market" or something.

If actual demand did not meet forcasted demand then they would drop the price, but that has not been established. That's your claim. You still have a time period set in your head and you think the price should stay the same during that time period. The fact is that sales have been good, and probably have met or exceeded forcasts. So a price drop has been as planned.

[Wiglaf]

The fact is that sales have been good, and probably have met or exceeded forcasts. So a price drop has been as planned.

Why plan a price drop without first analyzing market demand?

Why drop the price if sales exceed expectation?

That's less then 200,000. Not that significant.

I certainly think it qualifies as having "a bunch of iPhones sitting on shelves," which is what you denied earlier.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Kidicious
When you launch a product you might overestimate sales and have an overstock, but after 2 months you pretty much know how much you are going to sell everyday. You don't have a lot of overstock these days.

You seem to think these products are made the week before they arrive in stores. That's not how these work. They are made in quantities month before launch, usually shipped on container ships from China. Apple makes estimates, mass produces with CONTRACT MANUFACTURERS (this is another key point) to ship out X many shipments from China. There's usually a ~2 month delay/lag time in shipments from creation to destination.

They've got replenishing stocks from China coming to shore on a regular basis, because even in the weeks after the launch there's still that multi-month lag time between arriving shipments and new order rates. The result is an excess stockpile of products.

Sony encountered something similar recently with the PS3, actually. Why do you think they cut the PS3 price? The reasons are identical to the iPhone price cut, but the PS3 price cut wasn't nearly as large nor as soon -- which to me indicates some major problems with iPhone uptake.