Fears of global cooling

[Blake]

Originally posted by Berzerker


that didn't answer my question

Your question was irrelevant to what you quoted, I think there's a word for that argument technique.

[Berzerker]

Your question was irrelevant to what you quoted, I think there's a word for that argument technique.

Lets see

Milankovic cycles are irrelevant to the current warming

So would it be just as warm today if the tilt was 21.5 degrees?

The answer is no, therefore Milankovich Cycles are relevant to today... Oh, and the word is "logic".

[Blake]

You STILL miss the point!

The WARMING effect of greenhouse gasses would still be the same regardless of the base WARMNESS of the planet.

It is relevant to the current TEMPERATURE, but it's not relevant to the current WARMING - the CHANGE in temperature!

Good grief.

[Patroklos]

The WARMING effect of greenhouse gasses would still be the same regardless of the base WARMNESS of the planet.

Your missing the point.

What he is saying is that regardless of the greenhouse gases, the earth would be warming anyways. Right now there is no way to differentiate between whether the green house gases are the prime cause of global warming or the tilt. But since we know the tilt has this effect, and we don't know whether the levels of CO2 we are emitting does, it is daft to assume it is human action causing the change, OR to assume we know how much extra warming human action is causing.

[Blake]

But since we know the tilt has this effect, and we don't know whether the levels of CO2 we are emitting does, it is daft to assume it is human action causing the change, OR to assume we know how much extra warming human action is causing.

A bizarre assertion.

Why do we know so precisely the effect of a change in global temperature due to a change in tilt of 0.01 degrees while we have no clue about the effect of current CO2 emissions? (despite understanding perfectly well the science of the greenhouse effect)

But no worries. If global warming is due to tilt, then at current rates the world will be totally baked within a thousands years, with nothing humanity can do to stop it, because it's just the inevitable tilt.
(Tell me how is the current global warming going to STOP if it's caused by tilt?)

You just can't go around ignoring magnitudes and time scales.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Berzerker


that didn't answer my question



No it didn't, its been going on for more than 10,000 years. That is the trend inspite of temporary cool periods.

The climate has been slowly cooling from the Holocene Climatic Optimum 8,000 years ago.



Notice the trend for the last ~7000 years? if you don't you are blind.

[Berzerker]

You STILL miss the point!

The WARMING effect of greenhouse gasses would still be the same regardless of the base WARMNESS of the planet.

Thats nice (and not true), but that wasn't the point.

It is relevant to the current TEMPERATURE, but it's not relevant to the current WARMING - the CHANGE in temperature!

Good grief.

Of course its relevant, we would be alot cooler if the tilt was at its minimum. Why is this so confusing? And if we were alot cooler because of Milankovich Cycles those greenhouse gases would not have the same warming effect.

Your missing the point.

What he is saying is that regardless of the greenhouse gases, the earth would be warming anyways. Right now there is no way to differentiate between whether the green house gases are the prime cause of global warming or the tilt. But since we know the tilt has this effect, and we don't know whether the levels of CO2 we are emitting does, it is daft to assume it is human action causing the change, OR to assume we know how much extra warming human action is causing.

Thank you

The climate has been slowly cooling from the Holocene Climatic Optimum 8,000 years ago.

Well leave it to Odin to make our point for us, "global warming" is put into perspective by that graph. The trend we are in is a warming trend, not a cooling trend. You dont compare today's temps with the maximum 7 Kya to determine what trend we are on. Look at where the temps were 12 Kya and where they are today, that puts us in the warming trend. But you're a smart boy, I'm sure you've looked at the graphs and already know the max we hit 7 Kya doesn't preclude hitting a new max in the future before the next cooling trend sets in.

[CrONoS]

I don't know a damn thing about climatology; I think that global warming is a fact, I'm also suspicious that is caused by humans, but I think we have to be cautious. We can't waste a ton of money and energy into something that can't be false or partially true. We also can't go back in time. ( I've heard several times this times kind of discourse, about that we have to stop technological and industrial development).

Our only choice is to look forward, to develop new technology, new way of thinking, new habit. There is several innovative way to do that, without falling into the socialist/nihilist agenda of some extremist.

Since I hate one thing about GW; it's how GW is being used by political movement, social movement, leftism, hippie. With fear they try to impose their political agenda, and that's something that I hate.

[Blake]

Originally posted by Berzerker


Thats nice (and not true), but that wasn't the point.

Not true? Are you trying to claim that CO2 does not absorb infrared radiation? You'd better inform those scientists who do that spectrography stuff!

FACT: CO2 absorbs Infrared Radiation.
FACT: Humans are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere.
FACT: The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing.

This means that more energy from the sun is being captured by the atmosphere. If this is not in fact causing global warming (and SOMETHING is!) then the only explanation is that there are other effects working contrary to COUNTER this increased amount of energy being captured.

[Berzerker]

Not true? Are you trying to claim that CO2 does not absorb infrared radiation? You'd better inform those scientists who do that spectrography stuff!

Nope, I'm saying the amount of warming these gases "cause" depends in part on other factors - like Milankovich Cycles. The amount and strength of radiation available to be trapped matters, therefore your statement is false.

The WARMING effect of greenhouse gasses would still be the same regardless of the base WARMNESS of the planet.

The warming effect of these gases would not be the same if we were in the midst of an ice age.

[SpencerH]

I have no fears of global cooling. Bama is way too hot anyway.

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by Blake


FACT: CO2 absorbs Infrared Radiation.

Eeeeek!

FACT: Humans are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

Eeeeek!

FACT: The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing.

Eeeeek!

This means that more energy from the sun is being captured by the atmosphere. If this is not in fact causing global warming (and SOMETHING is!) then the only explanation is that there are other effects working contrary to COUNTER this increased amount of energy being captured.

Oh my god, we should obviously follow the inventor of the internet toward the promised land. Hallelejah (**** the spelling its late).

[Solly]

Originally posted by Odin
Well, well well...

2007 "first or second hottest year so far"

And I'll bet Doddler will still keep bringing up a few places having a cool year as "proof" there is no global warming.

Audit the surface temperature record.

No serious scientist can be happy with the temperature record when you see pictures of measuring stations exampled here www.surfacestations.org

[Patroklos]

FACT: CO2 absorbs Infrared Radiation.
FACT: Humans are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere.
FACT: The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing.

All of these are true, however before you come to the mentioned conclusion that the apocolypse is approaching here are three other facts.

FACT: We don't know how much CO2 has been released into the atmosphere or how much is reabsorbed after being released.
FACT: Not knowing how much is there makes it impossible to calculate the effects.
FACT: Other explanations such as Berz's are just as valid, but not given the same benefit of the doubt AGW folks get because it doesn't alow people to grind other axes at the same time.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Patroklos

FACT: We don't know how much CO2 has been released into the atmosphere or how much is reabsorbed after being released.

Huh? CO2 levels have increased from 280ppm in 1700 (the normal 260ppm for interglacial periods plus 20ppm from land use by humans) to 390ppm today. Where do you think all that CO2 came from? (CLUE: CO2 levels started increasing when the Industrial Revolution started).