Fears of global cooling

[Solly]

Originally posted by Odin


Then you also welcome a billion refugees, many major cities drowned, famines, and resource wars?

Which climatologist has forecasted that then, Al Gore?

[Berzerker]

it is the long term trends that are relevant.

And yet the GW crowd consistently uses the short term and ignores the long term, like the fact we've been on a general warming trend for 13-14,000 years and that this coincided with an increasing axial tilt and other orbital parameters conducive to a warming period.

Then you also welcome a billion refugees, many major cities drowned, famines, and resource wars?

Yeah...yeah, thats it Hey Odin, did you know sea levels might actually lower with a warmer world? The increase in evaporation transports more ocean water to the poles in the form of snow and warmer areas get more rain. Apparently this happened between 1900 and 1940 (a warm period) and sea levels then rose between 1940 and 1975 (during a cooler period) as less snow and water fell on land due to decreased evaporation.

But here's an idea: we can pump ocean water inland and desalinate to regulate sea levels and use some of the water for irrigation, etc. If these gases work the way they say, radiation will enter near the equator and bounce back and forth as the atmosphere traps it. This should mean warmer poles and millions of acres of potential farmland and room for expansion. Or would you like to feed the world with all that land being unused?

he Milankovic cycles are irrelevant to the current warming, they have been trending towards the orbital conditions that encourage ice sheet formation for the last 6000 years.

Oh really? So if the Earth's tilt was 21.5 degrees we'd be just as warm? Heh... We're at 23.5 degrees now, to put that in terms of our year, we're in late August. The sun will hit the equator (Sept 21st) when the tilt reaches 23 degrees - halfway between the 2 limits. The analogy is valid, we get our warmest during August, not June. The Earth absorbs the heat and retains it well past the solstice and thats true for a changing axial tilt. The Earth should not be at its warmest when the tilt reaches the maximum of 24.5 degrees, it should be at its warmest after that limit is reached and the sun is returning to its lower limit. We should surpass the warm period 9-5 Kya before returning to cooler times. And the opposite is true, after the Earth reaches the lower limit it takes longer to warm up - Sept 21st is warmer than Apr 21st.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Patroklos
Then perhaps they shouldn't use the weather of today to justify the predicted accuracy of their global warming/cooling theories then eh?

The scientists don't.

But thank you Kuci, your are correct (as already stated) the models do not change based on the level of prediction.

What the **** are you talking about?

[Kuciwalker]

Re: predicting hurricanes from GW, here's how it works:
As I said earlier, long-term climate modelling essentially takes a bunch of numbers meant to be a reasonably useful description of the state of the Earth's climate at any point in time (within the spatial and temporal resolution of our measurements) and uses discovered relationships and interactions between those variables to predict future state, e.g. Earth gets colder -> larger ice caps -> Earth's albedo increases -> Earth reflects more sunlight -> Earth gets colder. They can also say that, when these variables are within these ranges, certain weather patterns (e.g. hurricanes) are more common, based on empircal observations. Thus they can validly say "global warming increases, in the general, the number of hurricanes in a given year" without ever using short-term meteorological models (i.e. the stuff the weatherman uses).

I do not submit this as support of the actual claims made by many scientists (I certainly don't know enough to critique them, in general), but as refutation of your own critique.

[Solly]

e.g. Earth gets colder -> larger ice caps -> Earth's albedo increases -> Earth reflects more sunlight -> Earth gets colder.

Why don't we have a snowball Earth?

[Kuciwalker]

If you can't answer that question yourself there's no hope left for you.

[Solly]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
If you can't answer that question yourself there's no hope left for you.

I can answer it. It's just the feedback loop as posted and as believed by AGWers would lead to one.

[Kuciwalker]

I never suggested that my description was complete (or even correct, for that matter), and I don't think anyone else has either. It was an example, not an argument.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

After Godzilla was seen and photographed yesterday, I think the following passage appropriate

"Save the Earth"
(from "Godzilla vs. The Smog Monster")

Animals, God's animals
Don't go away, don't go
Flowers, my flowers
Don't go away, don't go
The sea has cobalt, it's full of mercury
Too many fumes in our oxygen
All the smog now is choking you and me
Good Lord, where is it gonna end?
Got to get it back, someday
Got to get it back, and soon now
For tomorrow maybe you and me
We're movin', we're movin', movin' to the Moon now
It's up to us to make a choice
We know what it's worth to save the Earth
Come raise your voice
Save the Earth! (save the Earth)
Save the Earth! (save the Earth)
See the evil problem around us
Save the Earth! (save the Earth)
Save the Earth! (save the Earth)
And the Solution: stop pollution
Save the Earth! (save the Earth)
Save the Earth! (save the Earth)
Save the Earth!
And the Solution: to stop pollution
Save the Earth!
Save the Earth!
Save the Earth!

[Odin]

Originally posted by Berzerker

Yeah...yeah, thats it Hey Odin, did you know sea levels might actually lower with a warmer world? The increase in evaporation transports more ocean water to the poles in the form of snow and warmer areas get more rain. Apparently this happened between 1900 and 1940 (a warm period) and sea levels then rose between 1940 and 1975 (during a cooler period) as less snow and water fell on land due to decreased evaporation.

Not when there are no ice sheets because the poles have become too warm for them.

But here's an idea: we can pump ocean water inland and desalinate to regulate sea levels

Oh really? So if the Earth's tilt was 21.5 degrees we'd be just as warm? Heh... We're at 23.5 degrees now, to put that in terms of our year, we're in late August. The sun will hit the equator (Sept 21st) when the tilt reaches 23 degrees - halfway between the 2 limits. The analogy is valid, we get our warmest during August, not June. The Earth absorbs the heat and retains it well past the solstice and thats true for a changing axial tilt. The Earth should not be at its warmest when the tilt reaches the maximum of 24.5 degrees, it should be at its warmest after that limit is reached and the sun is returning to its lower limit. We should surpass the warm period 9-5 Kya before returning to cooler times. And the opposite is true, after the Earth reaches the lower limit it takes longer to warm up - Sept 21st is warmer than Apr 21st.

The glacial-interglacial cycle is the result of the interaction between the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle (the Earth's orbit becoming more and less elliptical). the 41,000-year Obliquity (tilt) cycle, and the 23,000-year Precession cycle.

For a glaciation to start the eccentricity must not be near minimum (that is, if the Earth's orbit is at it's most circular glaciation cannot occur), Tilt must be at or near minimum (21.5 degrees), and precession should be such that northern summer solstice should occur when the earth is at the farthest from the sun in it's orbit. When these three conditions are met you will have summers in the arctic regions that are not warm enough to melt all the snow from the previous winter, resulting in the formation of ice sheets.

[Berzerker]

Why don't we have a snowball Earth?

There's a theory that says we did about 600 mya shortly before an explosion in evolution. It came to an end because volcanoes kept spewing gas into the atmosphere and the main mechanism for cleaning the atmosphere was reduced or eliminated by the lack of evaporation (and rain). The build up of greenhouse gases eventually overcame the albedo effect.

Not when there are no ice sheets because the poles have become too warm for them.

You just ignored the data, again. And you think water evaporating from oceans wont fall as snow near the poles if the ice sheets are gone? Quoting you:

Too hard, Odin? Really? Beyond our capability? We cant pump water from the ocean?

The glacial-interglacial cycle is the result of the interaction between the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle (the Earth's orbit becoming more and less elliptical). the 41,000-year Obliquity (tilt) cycle, and the 23,000-year Precession cycle.

For a glaciation to start the eccentricity must not be near minimum (that is, if the Earth's orbit is at it's most circular glaciation cannot occur), Tilt must be at or near minimum (21.5 degrees), and precession should be such that northern summer solstice should occur when the earth is at the farthest from the sun in it's orbit. When these three conditions are met you will have summers in the arctic regions that are not warm enough to melt all the snow from the previous winter, resulting in the formation of ice sheets.

All of which you declared irrelevant

Milankovic cycles are irrelevant to the current warming

So would it be just as warm today if the tilt was 21.5 degrees?

[Blake]

Originally posted by Berzerker

Milankovic cycles are irrelevant to the current warming

So would it be just as warm today if the tilt was 21.5 degrees?

Warm : a temperature.
Warming : a change in temperature.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Berzerker All of which you declared irrelevant



So would it be just as warm today if the tilt was 21.5 degrees?

It's irrelevant on timescales of less then a thousand years. The current warming only started 100 years ago.

Changes in earth's tilt does not change the earth's average temperature, it effects the severity of the seasons.

[Odin]

Well, well well...

2007 "first or second hottest year so far"

And I'll bet Doddler will still keep bringing up a few places having a cool year as "proof" there is no global warming.

[Berzerker]

Warm : a temperature.
Warming : a change in temperature.

that didn't answer my question

It's irrelevant on timescales of less then a thousand years. The current warming only started 100 years ago.

No it didn't, its been going on for more than 10,000 years. That is the trend inspite of temporary cool periods. And we've been warming since the mini-ice age which ended before the gold rush and before major industrialization - more than 100 years ago. And Milankovich Cycles are relevant regardless of timescale, the reason we're living in a warm world today is because of those cycles.

Changes in earth's tilt does not change the earth's average temperature, it effects the severity of the seasons.

What was the "average" temperature during the ice age when the tilt was at the minimum? Stop getting your "facts" from Algore.