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  • Fears of global cooling

    LAST month Australians endured our coldest June since 1950. Imagine that; all those trillions of tonnes of evil carbon we've horked up into the atmosphere over six decades of rampant industrialisation, and we're still getting the same icy weather we got during the Cold War.

    Not that June should be presented as evidence that global warming isn't happening, or that we're causing it. Relying on such a tiny sample would be unscientific and wrong, even if it involves an entire freakin' continent's weather patterns throughout the course of a whole month, for Christ's sake.

    No such foolishness will be indulged in here.

    Sadly, those who believe in global warming - and who would compel us also to believe - aren't similarly constrained. A few hot days are all they ever need to get the global warming bandwagon rolling; evidently it's solar powered. Here, for example, is an Australian Associated Press report on May's weather, which in places was a little warmer than usual:

    "Climate change gave much of Australia's drought-stricken east coast its warmest May on record, weather experts say.

    "Global warming and an absence of significant cold changes had driven temperatures well above the monthly average, said meteorologist Matt Pearce.

    According to Mr Pearce, May's temperatures were "yet another sign of the widespread climate change that we are seeing unfold across the globe."

    If that's the case, shouldn't June's cold weather - coldest since 1950, remember - be a sign that widespread climate change isn't unfolding across the globe? We're using the same data here; one month's weather. And, in fact, the June sample is Australia-wide while May only highlights the east coast. Fear the dawn of a great "coldening"!

    While Australia freezes, it's kinda hot in California. Again, local toastiness is evidence of global warming; one San Francisco Chronicle writer this week referred glibly to their "global-warming-heated summer".

    "The possibility is growing that Britain in 2007 may experience a summer of unheard-of high temperatures, with the thermometer even reaching 40C, or 104F, a level never recorded in history.

    "This would be quite outside all historical experience, but entirely consistent with predictions of climate change."

    As Wimbledon watchers would be aware, what with the rainiest tournament since Jimmy Connors defeated John McEnroe in 1982, those unheard-of high temperatures remain unheard-of. Someone might conclude, therefore, that the not-hot summer is not entirely consistent with predictions of climate change.
    Entertaining

    www.my-piano.blogspot

  • #2
    Everyone knows that global warming will only affect the north pole. All the heat rises to there.
    “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
    "Capitalism ho!"

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    • #3
      And how is it that global warming treats the south pole differently?

      Dirty snow is the most likely answer. "Dirty snow warms Arctic more than greenhouse gases: study"
      www.my-piano.blogspot

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      • #4
        Heat rises.
        “As a lifelong member of the Columbia Business School community, I adhere to the principles of truth, integrity, and respect. I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
        "Capitalism ho!"

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        • #5
          How is this new? We have known for years that global warming will result in a (possibly temporary) regional cooling.
          Do not fear, for I am with you; Do not anxiously look about you, for I am your God.-Isaiah 41:10
          I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made - Psalms 139.14a
          Also active on WePlayCiv.

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          • #6
            Who cares?

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            • #7
              We have known for years that global warming will result in a (possibly temporary) regional cooling.
              really

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              • #8
                Flooding has been done. Ice Age has been done.
                I doubt that it's time for any repeats.
                Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                • #9
                  Weather != Climate

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Odin
                    Weather != Climate
                    IYO what's the difference?
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                    • #11
                      Now we've got July fog.

                      Really surprising some AGW people this summer. They thought it'd be endless sunny days for ever more.
                      www.my-piano.blogspot

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                      • #12
                        Now that you bring it up, the norm for North Texas this time of year is hot and humid and no rain. It's raining every damned day. This guy at Lake Texoma has a doublwide mobile home that he spent 5000 dollars on styrofoam to attach to the bottom. It worked. The guy is having to check on it by boat. It's floating.
                        Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                        "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                        He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                        • #13
                          Of course, last year the dry summer was due to GW. This year the rains are due to GW.

                          It does seem to be wet in a lot of places at the moment, perhaps Mother Earth is cooling herself down.
                          www.my-piano.blogspot

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                          • #14
                            Okay... for some reason I'm going to bother with a proper response. The climatic system is complicated and subsystems have a massive effect on local climate/weather, there's also a lot which is not understood and many of the ways which man effects the climate can have the effect of cooling, but some of these may be transient..

                            Example: It is likely that soot particulates cause some cooling, because they reflect light in much the same way as volcanic soot. Also likely effecting cloud formation (but in ways difficult to tell) and clouds relfect light causing cooling...
                            Switching to cleaner burning fuel, means less soot, and thus more light reaching the surface.

                            Anyway the Greenhouse effect is understood and is real - more CO2 in the atmosphere, more heat trapped, higher temperatures.
                            There may be (well, are) other global and local effects which cool and warm, however unlike the greenhouse effect these are poorly understood and may well be transitional only, many likely operate based on tipping points, like when an air stream or ocean current shifts, abruptly adding or removing heat (also rain, snow etc) from various landmasses, this is the (soon to be?) buzzphrase of "Abrupt climate change", where some subsystem enters a new state (a current deflected elsewhere) and things go haywire until it stabilizes.

                            In any case what is inevitable is that as long as we dump more CO2 into the atmosphere, then the average temperature will on average increase. It's also pretty much inevitable that this will cause various climatic subsystems to hit tipping points, resulting in abrupt climate change.

                            Take for example the Gulf Stream, there is the possibility that the GS will shut down, plunging Europe into a localized mini ice age, within a duration as short of a decade Europe could become unable to feed itself.
                            And then, further in the future, there is the possibility of the GS starting back up, then Europe goes directly into a hotter climate (with the cumulative effects of Global Warming during the mini ice age) which would truly devastate the remaining ecosystem - which would basically be subarctic (being all that survived the plunge into cold temperatures).

                            And that's the climate change process in a nutshell.

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                            • #15
                              Sounds like pseudo-science to me, no testable/falsifiable predictions there.
                              www.my-piano.blogspot

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