Turkey busts Iranian weapons transfer to Syria / Hezbullah

[Arrian]

Seems a bit of a stretch to me.

-Arrian

[VetLegion]

Originally posted by Ancyrean
It's really hard to imagine a country like the US can't even bring itself to tell the other Kurds in the region that while being on their side, the US can't tolerate terrorists in the region, be them Kurdish or not. It's a small measure of how many things the US got wrong in Iraq.

I've read some reports from Iraq and it seems that the only place in Iraq where American soldiers feel good, wellcome and respected (and safe) is the Kurdish territory. Maybe some of this goodwill towards the Kurds has filtered also to the higher ranks and the politicians.

[VetLegion]

Originally posted by Heresson
I hope there shall be independant Kurdistan oneday. I only think territorial claims by Kurds, which demans up to the access to three seas, are somewhat silly. Anyway, they'd gain more by peaceful means than uprisings. They commit the same mistakes as Poles once.

Nobody ever won independence without having to fight for it. Kurds are playing it exactly as they should. They have to attack and attack and attack and push in all directions until they get what they want. It will not come on a platter.

[DinoDoc]

They end up envying the Armenians, Vet.

[VetLegion]

Demographics say otherwise.

[Dinner]

Ancyrean The US most certainly isn't helping the PKK and the reason they don't want Turkey invading Northern Iraq is because then the PUK and PDK would declare open season on Turks, start helping the PKK, and create a whole new military conflict in Iraq. The US is busy trying to calm down a civil war in Iraq already and doesn't need yet another one to start up.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by VetLegion

I've read some reports from Iraq and it seems that the only place in Iraq where American soldiers feel good, wellcome and respected (and safe) is the Kurdish territory. Maybe some of this goodwill towards the Kurds has filtered also to the higher ranks and the politicians.

The Kurds were actually cool with us. The seemed to hate Arabs, Turks, and Iranians (which was problematic) but liked Brits and Americans. It's a hard act to keep going to help the Kurds so they can help us but not so much that they get uppity with our friend Turkey. It takes a lot of balancing which is hard to maintain over the long run.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by VetLegion


Nobody ever won independence without having to fight for it. Kurds are playing it exactly as they should. They have to attack and attack and attack and push in all directions until they get what they want. It will not come on a platter.

By saying "the Kurds are playing it exactly as they should", do you mean the PKK (since you mention attack and attack etc)?

As far as Kurdish seperatist aspirations in Turkey are concerned, a good percentage, if not most, of the Kurds in Turkey live in western Turkey. Obviously they, as well as most of the Kurds in Southeastern Turkey, do not support the PKK by any stretch. Their number of supporters is actually estimated to be 100.000+ out of 10-12 million Kurds countrywide.

PKK is not a romantic liberation movement that fights for an oppressed people. It's a self-serving terrorist organisation which is recgonised as such by the international community.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Ancyrean The US most certainly isn't helping the PKK and the reason they don't want Turkey invading Northern Iraq is because then the PUK and PDK would declare open season on Turks, start helping the PKK, and create a whole new military conflict in Iraq. The US is busy trying to calm down a civil war in Iraq already and doesn't need yet another one to start up.

I'm not saying the US is helping the PKK. It's just that due to various other concerns that the US have, as you mention, the eventual US inaction and prevention of Turkish military action has the positive effect of protecting the PKK presence in the area.

The welfare and economic development of Northern Iraq, a good deal of its revenues both from border trade and oil exports, as well as transportation to the world depend on Turkish goodwill and the Turkish border/airspace remaining open. If PUK-KDP should choose to declare open season on Turkey, that would be extremely painful for them in that sense.

I guess they would think more than twice before following that path, particularly if the Turkish incursion remains limited to the Kandil area alone.

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by Ancyrean


I'm not saying the US is helping the PKK.

Are you back from Indonesia, Ancyrean ?

[Ancyrean]

Bad news:

A few hours ago, two PKK terrorists in a land-rover type vehicle drove up to a military post, near the town of Tunceli (pronounced as Thunjelly). One threw a hand grenade inside, the other followed the explosion by dashing in and opening up by an assault rifle. Other terrorists which took up positions around the station also opened up simultaneously.

In the initial confusion they have killed 7 Turkish soldiers, wounding 6. Only one of the attackers got killed, the rest hightailed it after the initial response from the survivors in/around the building. The vehicle they used was stolen and previously used by private contractors to resupply the military post. The sentry did recognise it, thus allowing it to come closer than usual.

This follows an intimidation attack on another military post near the Iraqi border last evening.

I have to tell you, I can only understate the pent up outrage in the Turkish public, not the mention the army command. Pressure on the government is mounting higher.

[VetLegion]

Sorry to hear about the deaths.

By saying "the Kurds are playing it exactly as they should", do you mean the PKK (since you mention attack and attack etc)?

Yes, but not only them. I'm thinking Kurds in general in Turkey and in the region.

As far as Kurdish seperatist aspirations in Turkey are concerned, a good percentage, if not most, of the Kurds in Turkey live in western Turkey. Obviously they, as well as most of the Kurds in Southeastern Turkey, do not support the PKK by any stretch. Their number of supporters is actually estimated to be 100.000+ out of 10-12 million Kurds countrywide.

I think the number is larger. 100 000 is a mid-size neighbourhood in a city. It is my feeling that support is larger. I don't have any sources to back it up, though.

PKK is not a romantic liberation movement that fights for an oppressed people. It's a self-serving terrorist organisation which is recgonised as such by the international community.

I'm not saying they're romantic. They kill people after all. However I'm saying that NOBODY will give the Kurds a state if they don't carve it out with weapons. It's simple.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by VetLegion
Demographics say otherwise.

Demographics can and likely would be made to change in the event something like you suggest were to happen.

[Dinner]

Only 20% of the Turkish population is Kurdish so that makes around 14.2 million Kurds in Turkey though they are mainly grouped in the southeast where they are the majority. In the end it I suspect the Kurds will not stop until they get their own state so eventually Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are going to have to give up due to ever larger and endless unconventional warfare.

[Ramo]

The other leverage is to setup an alternative govt under (probably) Allawi, with the support of his secularist coalition, of the Sunni Arabs, of a few Shiite independents, AND of the Kurds. Looking at parliamentary arithmetic in Baghdad, the KDP and PUK are crucial to that. They are the swing vote.

The problem is that, absent serious external pressure, the Kurds have basically no incentive to do that. Since they're getting basically what they want wrt autonomy and probably Kirkuk, but these issues would immediately come to a head under such a coalition since Arab Nationalism is their raison d'etre and Sunni Arabs would be the big losers if the Kurds get their way in Kirkuk. I don't see the Kurds abandoning SCIRI/Da'wa without a shakeup in Parliament.