Turkey busts Iranian weapons transfer to Syria / Hezbullah

[snoopy369]

Kurds

[DinoDoc]

Yeah they finally do something worthwhile. Now they just need to do it more often to justify us not giving Turkey a free hand in not destroying a terrorist group that targets its citizens.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ancyrean

Just yesterday 10 PKK terrorists were killed by the army, today 4 more.

Sounds like your guys are doing a GREAT job of getting them when they are on YOUR side of the border.

[DinoDoc]

Why shouldn't they be able to fight them at their bases to avoid having to fight them on Turkish soil?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Why shouldn't they be able to fight them at their bases to avoid having to fight them on Turkish soil?

because its in the long run Turkish interest to have a stable Iraq, thats not unfriendly to the West. The odds of that are reduced by an incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan. The larger the incursion, the more significantly its reduced.

Now of course if the situation in terms of PKK attacks was becoming intolerable, that would outweigh the longer term concerns, Im sure.

From Ancy's post, I dont get the impression that is happening, though.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Either that, or most trains from Iran to Syria via Turkey are filled with such weapons. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Or, they deliberately didnt loot the train, to protect "intelligence gathering means and sources".

The route that the train takes from the Iranian border to the Syrian is quite circuitious to make the trip safe enough for frequent use.

I'm sure they smuggled arms and material through Turkey many times before, small quantities at a time. But on this scale, it can't be on a regular basis.

On your other point, PKK never before had an intelligence network of the scale or depth required to acquire this kind of information. If they nevertheless acquired one now, and if they start using it like this, that really wouldn't be a wise move at all. It would elevate the PKK to being a strategic threat to Iran's interests. This in turn would only convince the Iranians that what was once a nuisance should now be destroyed at all costs.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

Sounds like your guys are doing a GREAT job of getting them when they are on YOUR side of the border.

Not always. PKK used to operate in teams of 30-50, guerilla style, in 1990s and seek open clashes with the security forces. After the Turkish army adopted helicopter-mobile tactics, increased close air fire-support capability by heligunships, started to own the night through extensive use of night vision equipment and trained a whole army corps (by now) of special forces, those days are painfully over for the PKK.

They nevertheless recouped from their extensive losses and now resort to lying low in groups of 10+ and setting up remote controlled landmine ambushes, similar to IED type ambushes in Iraq. After the blast, they stay on to fire on the survivors until the latter regroup and retaliate. They then run back to Northern Iraq for safety.

This results in a high number of Turkish casualties. Example: Just last week 7 soldiers died in such an ambush. One or two or three each week before that, for a few months back.

These are all conscripts, I have to add. So each time a soldier dies, it infuriates the whole country. Top army commanders attend the funerals. Bereaved mothers and loved ones cry on their shoulders. This really fills them with a great sense of determination to destroy the PKK.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ancyrean


The route that the train takes from the Iranian border to the Syrian is quite circuitious to make the trip safe enough for frequent use.

I'm sure they smuggled arms and material through Turkey many times before, small quantities at a time. But on this scale, it can't be on a regular basis.

On your other point, PKK never before had an intelligence network of the scale or depth required to acquire this kind of information. If they nevertheless acquired one now, and if they start using it like this, that really wouldn't be a wise move at all. It would elevate the PKK to being a strategic threat to Iran's interests. This in turn would only convince the Iranians that what was once a nuisance should now be destroyed at all costs.

How exactly does Iran do that, without destroying their ties with the KDP and PUK? For Iran to break completely with all the Kurds, would be to free the Kurds as a political force from the more pro-Iranian elements in the Maliki govt, and rapidly increase the possibility of a parliamentary ouster of Maliki by a coalition in support of Allawi, which is what the Saudis and SOME Americans want to see.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ancyrean


Not always. PKK used to operate in teams of 30-50, guerilla style, in 1990s and seek open clashes with the security forces. After the Turkish army adopted helicopter-mobile tactics, increased close air fire-support capability by heligunships, started to own the night through extensive use of night vision equipment and trained a whole army corps (by now) of special forces, those days are painfully over for the PKK.

They nevertheless recouped from their extensive losses and now resort to lying low in groups of 10+ and setting up remote controlled landmine ambushes, similar to IED type ambushes in Iraq. After the blast, they stay on to fire on the survivors until the latter regroup and retaliate. They then run back to Northern Iraq for safety.

This results in a high number of Turkish casualties. Example: Just last week 7 soldiers died in such an ambush. One or two or three each week before that, for a few months back.

These are all conscripts, I have to add. So each time a soldier dies, it infuriates the whole country. Top army commanders attend the funerals. Bereaved mothers and loved ones cry on their shoulders. This really fills them with a great sense of determination to destroy the PKK.

Im sorry for the troops and their loved ones. It does sound though like the attrition ratio is very much in the Turkish armys favor, and the Turkish army has prevented attacks on civilians.

I would certainly understand that there are those in Turkey who would naturally want stronger action, from hot pursuit immediately across the border, to a larger incursion.

I would only suggest that Turkey would be very wise, in looking at the full range of options, to consider the entire political situation in Iraq, and where they want it to go. And how it is evolving as we speak.

I would hope that Ryan Crocker (and his superiors) would take at least as much time to talk to Turkey about Turkish concerns, as they do trying to make contact with Iran.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


How exactly does Iran do that, without destroying their ties with the KDP and PUK? For Iran to break completely with all the Kurds, would be to free the Kurds as a political force from the more pro-Iranian elements in the Maliki govt, and rapidly increase the possibility of a parliamentary ouster of Maliki by a coalition in support of Allawi, which is what the Saudis and SOME Americans want to see.

We are considering a scenario in which the PKK becomes a threat to the well-being of Iranian proxies in the wider region. In such a grave case, if the Kurds (PUK-KDP) don't want to permanently alienate Iran by protecting such a PKK, they would have to acquiesce in Iranian retaliatory action against the PKK.

If they insist on protecting the PKK even under such circumstances, Iran would have no choice but break its ties with these groups, rather than watch its proxy network get choked.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


Im sorry for the troops and their loved ones. It does sound though like the attrition ratio is very much in the Turkish armys favor, and the Turkish army has prevented attacks on civilians.

I would certainly understand that there are those in Turkey who would naturally want stronger action, from hot pursuit immediately across the border, to a larger incursion.

I would only suggest that Turkey would be very wise, in looking at the full range of options, to consider the entire political situation in Iraq, and where they want it to go. And how it is evolving as we speak.

I would hope that Ryan Crocker (and his superiors) would take at least as much time to talk to Turkey about Turkish concerns, as they do trying to make contact with Iran.

I agree with the caution part. But the US is not doing anything about it at all. They seem to become utter hostages of the Kurds, to be utterly helpless about the whole situation. That's what I think people can't believe.

US envoys come and go, promises are made in heaps and everytime not even a single symbolic act is done. The US effort on the issue is more like an unending, unchanging call for caution to Turkey, which, while heeded for now, only serves to protect the PKK.

It's really hard to imagine a country like the US can't even bring itself to tell the other Kurds in the region that while being on their side, the US can't tolerate terrorists in the region, be them Kurdish or not. It's a small measure of how many things the US got wrong in Iraq.

[Heresson]

I hope there shall be independant Kurdistan oneday. I only think territorial claims by Kurds, which demans up to the access to three seas, are somewhat silly. Anyway, they'd gain more by peaceful means than uprisings. They commit the same mistakes as Poles once.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ancyrean


It's really hard to imagine a country like the US can't even bring itself to tell the other Kurds in the region that while being on their side, the US can't tolerate terrorists in the region, be them Kurdish or not.

Right now, the Maliki govt in some ways has us over a barrel, they are the elected govt, and control the Ministries and the Iraqi army. Yet we have many issues with that govt, from cleaning up corruption, to stopping ministry cooperation with death squads, to limiting Iranian influence.

We can use the threat to withdraw as leverage, but that has obvious disadvantages.

The other leverage is to setup an alternative govt under (probably) Allawi, with the support of his secularist coalition, of the Sunni Arabs, of a few Shiite independents, AND of the Kurds. Looking at parliamentary arithmetic in Baghdad, the KDP and PUK are crucial to that. They are the swing vote.

At this point enlisting their cooperation in either replacing the Maliki admin, or pressuring it by threatening to do so, is crucial to a positive outcome in Iraq.

[lord of the mark]

as for what the US is doing or not doing, I presume whatever pressure we are putting on the Kurds to accommodate Turkish concerns is not going to be broadcast on the evening news.

I also wonder if the US is not asking Turkey for some quid pro quos in return for our putting pressure on the KDP and PUK to allow a Turkish incursion that has to be super unpopular among Kurds, and could cause many ordinary IRaqi Kurds to shift their loyalty from the KDP and PUK to the PKK( I mean imagine Israel asking Abbas for a green light for an incursion)

Like stopping Iranian weapons shipments to Syria, for example. Or supporting concessions to the Kurds on the status of Kirkuk

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


Either that, or most trains from Iran to Syria via Turkey are filled with such weapons. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Or, they deliberately didnt loot the train, to protect "intelligence gathering means and sources".

was also my first impression.