2007 French Election - predict the run-off

[Solly]

Royal and le Pen?

[Drogue]

Royal and Sarkozy. I thought Sarkozy was still still topping the polls? I reckon Bayrou's going to edge out Le Pen too

[Solly]

Originally posted by Drogue
Royal and Sarkozy. I thought Sarkozy was still still topping the polls? I reckon Bayrou's going to edge out Le Pen too

Ah but with 30% undecided and the usual le Pen under-estimate due to the stigma of admitting support for him...

None of them seem a great candidate. I would be surprised if Bayrou scored much over 12-15%.

I'd say
Royal 27%
le Pen 22%
Sarkozy 21%
Bayrou 14%

[Fake Boris]

Sarkozy 21%

WTF Spink ?

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Doddler
Ah but with 30% undecided and the usual le Pen under-estimate due to the stigma of admitting support for him...

None of them seem a great candidate. I would be surprised if Bayrou scored much over 12-15%.

I'd say
Royal 27%
le Pen 22%
Sarkozy 21%
Bayrou 14%

Sarkozy is leading Royal by a margin at the moment. I reckon it'll be Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, Le Pen, though the last two very close. I don't see any of the other ordering being within 1 or 2% of each other.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Sarkozy: 25%
Bayrou: 23%
Royal: 20%
LePen: 18%

[Fake Boris]

I predict a good score for Ségolène. Remember, 35% of French electors don't have a landline, which skews polls in favor of the right.

[Drake Tungsten]

I think it will be Sarkozy vs. Royal in the runoff, which is much better for Sarko than Sarkozy vs. Bayrou...

[Solly]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
I think it will be Sarkozy vs. Royal in the runoff, which is much better for Sarko than Sarkozy vs. Bayrou...

Well that's going with the safe option..

[Drake Tungsten]

Well, I'm not a closet BNP member who would like nothing better than to see le Pen triumph, so I don't know why I wouldn't choose the "safe" (ie. most likely) option...

[Eli]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris
I predict a good score for Ségolène. Remember, 35% of French electors don't have a landline, which skews polls in favor of the right.

How exactly? People who don't have a landline are on average poorer and therefore tend to vote more to the Right, not to the Left.

[RGBVideo]

Don't confuse him with facts.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Eli
How exactly? People who don't have a landline are on average poorer and therefore tend to vote more to the Right, not to the Left.

In France, people who are on average poorer tend to vote more to the left, or otherwise to the far-right.


BTW, upon looking at poll results, remember that Le Pen's scores are heavily ponderated. The pollsters don't give the raw data of people who said "Le Pen" upon being asked: they artificially increase those answers, to take the shame-effect into account.
IIRC, one poll even multiplied the "Le Pen" answers 3x: 5% among the polled answered Le Pen, and the pollsters predicted a 15% score.

We don't know how accurate the ponderation is. Maybe it's pretty much accurate. Maybe it understates or maybe it overstates Le Pen's votes.

[Spiffor]

Personally, I predict Sarkozy at the runoff, and either Bayrou or Royal as challenger.

I don't expect Le Pen to be in the runoff at all. The political situation is very different now than in 2002.

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by Spiffor
In France, people who are on average poorer tend to vote more to the left

This is false.

Great job adding a disclaimer sentence behind it which renders the statement meaningless but somehow creates an impression that your (as in, yours and Oncle Boris') myth is true.

You're rapidly growing up to be a spineless partisan hack parroting the party line with a language that woos those who haven't made up their minds about politics but are nervous about their future. Have you considered the career of a politician? There's still time and room for a spineless, always-smiling middle-class non-muslim dhimmi figurehead in the organized far-left until the eventual revolution. Spinmeißter Spiffor for Paris' suburb député in 2012

On-topic: Looks like the top two are Sarkozy and Royal. If Bayrou will be on 2nd place, he has a chance to win the second round. If Le Pen will be on 2nd place, he has a snowball's chance in hell.

Because it looks like Royal will be 2nd in the first round, I presume Sarkozy wins both the 1st and the 2nd round.