2007 French Election - predict the run-off

[RGBVideo]

In terms of image, Sarkozy is a much more attractive candidate than the impotent and two-faced Chirac was for people who have already been victims of "youth" violence, which would logically mean that he'll snatch votes which Le Pen got 5 years ago. Perhaps this'll even stop the ever-growing vote support of Le Pen among French people, he's been a candidate since 1988 and has always increased his amount of votes from the last time he ran.

[Emetri]

Re: 2007 French Election - predict the run-off

That guy, and that other dude.

[Jon Miller]

What my french freinds say (I think they both favor Sarkozy) is that Bayrou will beat Sarkozy, but Sarkozy will beat Royal. So they worry that people will vote for Bayrou instead of Royal.

I think that Royal is a female.

Jon Miller

[Nubclear]

This is false.

Indeed. A Finn obviously knows far more about French politics than a Frenchman involved in politics Thus, given your genius-level knowledge about the situation in France, it is no wonder that you can so categorically state that Spiffor is false.

[BeBMan]

This is madness!

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by VJ
Great job adding a disclaimer sentence behind it which renders the statement meaningless but somehow creates an impression that your (as in, yours and Oncle Boris') myth is true.

It wasn't a disclaimer, it was additional info for those (especially Spink) who think Le Pen is vastly understated by polls. It was true in the past, but since then the pollsters have refined their tools, and we don't know how accurate they are now.

[Spiffor]

BTW, in my hometown, the turnout is huge. I've never seen so many voters so early in the day. Maybe it means there are more people than usual who want to enjoy their sunday afternoon (the weather is great). Or maybe there really is a huge interest for that election.

[Asmodean]

It will be Royal and Sarkozy - or vice versa. Anyone thinking different ought to have their heads examined

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by VJ
Don't confuse him with facts.

Have you changed pill as of late ?

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Well, I'm not a closet BNP member

Since when was Doddler in the closet?

[BeBMan]

So when do we get some results?

[Kassiopeia]

Does high turnout give the results a bent in France, historically? For instance, are people who support the Socialists more likely to go out and vote if the weather is nice and interest in the election in general is greater?

Predicting is tricky due to the large portion of people who have not decided yet (will they even go and vote?) but I'm going with the unsurprising and uninteresting prediction that Sarkozy vs. Royal will run off and that Sarkozy will ultimately win. It will not even be that close, maybe 27/24 for the first round and 57/43 for the second. There's no way Sarkozy won't be in the runoff, in any case.

It's interesting to find out that the pollsters have a built-in modifier to bring Le Pen's numbers closer to reality, though. I would prefer a prominent sidenote of actual support possibly being much higher than indicated instead of just applying a factor to it and leaving it at that. That's what will reach the news agencies aboard, that Le Pen is at 15%, nothing elaborated beyond that figure.

I completely screwed up my prediction for the Finnish elections last month by going for a conservative estimate, though, so who knows.

[Barnabas]

Even if I agreed with Le Pen´s ideas , I wouldnt vote for him because of his age

[Victor Galis]

Since I know nothing, I will make wild and stupid predictions with no basis in reality: Bayrou and Le Pen will advance to the second round where Le Pen will be crushed.

There, now I can not possibly be more wrong (Ignoring minor candidates that have no chance of getting 10% of the vote let alone winning)

[Jonny]

Well, I'll be boring: Sarkozy and Royal in the second round. Royal wins...