WW2 - the Axis in the Mediterrenean

[Lord Avalon]

Originally posted by Deity Dude

Yes , but if Germany had not made such a treaty they would not have felt obligated to declare war on the US.

I don't know about that. The US was supplying Britain, and if you look at the DoW, the US was defending its shipping against the German subs (which were probably attacking to prevent Britain from getting it, but that's another issue):

excerpt of German Declaration of war on US

On September 11, 1941, the President of the United States publicly declared that he had ordered the American Navy and Air Force to shoot on sight at any German war vessel. In his speech of October 27, 1941, he once more expressly affirmed that this order was in force. Acting under this order, vessels of the American Navy, since early September 1941, have systematically attacked German naval forces. Thus, American destroyers, as for instance the Greer, the Kearney and the Reuben James, have opened fire on German sub-marines according to plan. The Secretary of the American Navy, Mr. Knox, himself confirmed that-American destroyers attacked German submarines.

Furthermore, the naval forces of the United States, under order of their Government and contrary to international law have treated and seized German merchant vessels on the high seas as enemy ships.

The German Government therefore establishes the following facts:

Although Germany on her part has strictly adhered to the rules of international law in her relations with the United States during every period of the present war, the Government of the United States from initial violations of neutrality has finally proceeded to open acts of war against Germany. The Government of the United States has thereby virtually created a state of war.

The German Government, consequently, discontinues diplomatic relations with the United States of America and declares that under these circumstances brought about by President Roosevelt Germany too, as from today, considers herself as being in a state of war with the United States of America.

http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/wwii/gerdec41.htm

So I don't know if Hitler "felt obligated" to declare war on the US, the treaty was probably just an excuse, and he was just nucking futs enought to do it anyway, right?

But it (the DoW) was a mistake. Better to go about business as usual, because the US can't get fully involved without a DoW (at least in those days). Germany and Japan would both end up at war with Britain, so it's not surprising that they'd make a treaty.

[Ned]

Lord Avalon, I think there is consensus here that the Germans would have had a hard time taking Egypt and the ME even if they took Malta for reasons stated. Africa was a major drain on needed resources. Germany should have figured out a way to fight a defensive war in Tunisia so that it would be the allies that had the supply-line problem.

You identified the problem about a German invasion of England: transports and logistics. They had enough air power to do it if they only had the transports.

The US and Britain took it slow and built up all they needed for a landing and operations for months without a major port. The Germans could have done the same thing if they hadn't diverted resources elsewhere. Knocking the UK out of the war would have made a victory over the USSR possible, because without the UK in the war, Russia does not get supplied and Hitler wins.

The only reasonable strategy for Germany from the summer of '40 on was to build up for an invasion of England. The diversion of its airforce into bombing London was not the strategic blunder it is made out to be given that Germany was in no position to invade in the near future regardless.

[Myrddin]

Originally posted by Ned

You identified the problem about a German invasion of England: transports and logistics. They had enough air power to do it if they only had the transports.

But what would they do about the Royal Navy?

[Ned]

A more interesting question is how Japan could have won its war against China given FDR's embargo?

[Ned]

Originally posted by Myrddin


But what would they do about the Royal Navy?

Air supremacy over the Channel would have done the job.

[Lord Avalon]

I disagree that Germany could have built up an invasion fleet - I don't think they had the resources. (Ned, if you think that Africa was a major drain, when it was a sideshow, and Germany didn't send much down there, then how could they possibly invade Britain?)

Best bet would have been to pound Britain into submission such that they'd bow out of the war (if such a thing were even possible).

[Lord Avalon]

Originally posted by Ned

Air supremacy over the Channel would have done the job.

Air supremacy is important, but often overrated.

[Ned]

Re: Re: Re: Re: WW2 - the Axis in the Mediterrenean

Originally posted by lord of the mark


To win, Germany needs much more force by summer of '41. Speer would have had to have been in charge practically from fall of '39, if not earlier. An interesting POD, but Im not sure if its politically feasible.

Only if they don't take on the whole world and just focus on Britain. Germany vs. Britain was a very even match.

[Ned]

Lord Avalon, but if Germany cannot take Britain, they loose. The Brits know this, which is why they never considered surrendering even during the darkest days of '40.

Hitler had no choice, no choice whatsoever. He had to take England to survive.

He failed.

[molly bloom]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by lord of the mark

Originally posted by molly bloom

It's worth remembering that just in terms of manpower, the British/Commonwealth forces were greatly outnumbered in Africa- the Italians were already in Italian Somaliland and Abyssinia and Libya, and took British Somaliland (which was recaptured).

But by 1941 the Brits had already taken both Somalilands and Ethiopia, IIUC.

Which is why 'persuading' Franco would have to take place in 1940...

Madagascar is too isolated to be a threat.

I'm not suggesting it was an immediate threat- just offering it as an example of former French colonies that were not for De Gaulle or the Free French.

Madagascar is not hard to take,

Six months worth of fighting suggests otherwise...

Senegal is also vulnerable to a seaborne attack

The (failed) assault on Dakar was not a great Free French/Allied moment.

[TheStinger]

Originally posted by Ned


Air supremacy over the Channel would have done the job.

First the best the Germans could have hoped for was a numerical advantage in the air not superioity.
Even if they did have that advantage the Royal navy was so much bigger than the German navy they would have mauled any attempts to supply a becahead which probably could have been established.

Britain would have has in excess of 500,000 troops to chuck at the Germans and with the Germans out of suppply and with few tanks they would have been destroyed

[Saras]

Originally posted by Ned

I think Germany's only chance of winning WWII was to be patient and invade Britain when it could. That might not have happened in '40 or '41. But if they had not attacked Russia and ignored Africa, Germany could have taken Britain. That (and keeping America out of the war) was their key to victory.

Admit it, you had a hard-on writing this paragraph

[Ned]

Originally posted by TheStinger


First the best the Germans could have hoped for was a numerical advantage in the air not superioity.
Even if they did have that advantage the Royal navy was so much bigger than the German navy they would have mauled any attempts to supply a becahead which probably could have been established.

Britain would have has in excess of 500,000 troops to chuck at the Germans and with the Germans out of suppply and with few tanks they would have been destroyed

Maybe, maybe not. I agree with this in 1940 and 1941. But if Germany builds up as the allies did, I think an invasion would have been possible eventually.

As we showed in the Pacific War, airpower dominates seapower. If the British navy shows up in an area dominated by the German airforce, it loses, not the Germans.

But this whole discussion begs another issue I have never been clear about. Just when did Germany lose air parity, at least, over the channel? Had they maintained the air assault on Britain and stayed at least even over the years, D-Day 1944 does not happen and Germany does not lose the war -- at least not so soon.

But you say, they needed their airforce in Africa and Russia.

My point.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Saras


Admit it, you had a hard-on writing this paragraph

Sara, are you believing your own propaganda again?

[Lord Avalon]

Originally posted by Ned

Maybe, maybe not. I agree with this in 1940 and 1941. But if Germany builds up as the allies did, I think an invasion would have been possible eventually.

Except that Germany did not have the industrial capacity to do so.

As we showed in the Pacific War, airpower dominates seapower. If the British navy shows up in an area dominated by the German airforce, it loses, not the Germans.

A lot of that airpower was seaborne. Also, according to wiki (I'm at work, so I'm not going to spend the time to see if there's a better source):

Some veterans of the battle point out that the Royal Navy would have been vulnerable to air attack by the Luftwaffe if Germany had achieved air superiority[38], quoting the fate of Prince of Wales and Repulse in December 1941 - overwhelmed only by air power.[39] This assertion ignores the fact that Germany at the time had no armour piercing bomb capable of doing to a British cruiser (let alone a battleship) what Japan did to Prince of Wales.

(emphasis added)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_britain

Also, a Channel battle is very localized. The RN can dock in various places and still be close enough to hinder an invasion. Even if the Luftwaffe establishes local air superiority, the RN has too many ships to be dominated. Air power is also limited by planes' load capacity - eventually they run low on fuel and/or out of ammo and have to return to base.

But this whole discussion begs another issue I have never been clear about. Just when did Germany lose air parity, at least, over the channel? Had they maintained the air assault on Britain and stayed at least even over the years, D-Day 1944 does not happen and Germany does not lose the war -- at least not so soon.

Britain was outproducing Germany in planes. A big issue for the RAF was a lack of experienced pilots. Also at some point German fighters were made to do more bomber escort duties, where they had increased casualties.