WW2 - the Axis in the Mediterrenean

[Ned]

Originally posted by Lord Avalon
Wow! In the Nediverse Ned communes with the dead! Or are Hitler and Stalin still alive?

With what other figures of history have you conversed, Ned?

WTF are you talking about?

Also, go blank yourself, you creep.

Moderater, I strongly resent being insulted here in this forum. I ask for your help in putting a permanent stop to it.

[Myrddin]

Originally posted by Ned
I still maintain that building a fleet is unnecessary if one has air supremacy in the channel. The night-time issue is a red herring as the Brit navy can't do anything effective at night even if it was in the channel. The Germans simply wait to daytime to send their barges and ferries across.

Try thinking this through

The barges and ferries will start from ports in France, cross the Channel, unload at beaches in England, and return across the Channel to French ports etc

Where in this cycle are they safe from attack by the Royal Navy, given that the RN was shelling French ports with battleships at night in 1940?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ned
As I said, LoTM, the diversion of Hitler elsewhere is why, IMO, Germany lost. You seem to contend that Germany had no choice but to attack the USSR because Stalin would have attacked Hitler before he beats the UK regardless. The only evidence you supply is Hitler's well known racism and anti-communism. You ignore the fact that Hitler was saying nice things about Stalin and the USSR after their semi-alliance of 1939. You also cite nothing from the USSR itself that suggests that Stalin had formed a plan to attack Germany before the end of the German-UK war.

Whatever nice things hitler said, Im sure Stalin was not taken in suffiiciently to be comfortable with Germany beating Britain and dominating Europe. And he would have been 100% justified in not being taken in.

and of course Stalin hadnt formed a plan to attack Germany. Since Germany didnt have the ability to beat Britain at any time before June 1941, there was no need to. Heck, he still had to deal with the fact that the annexation of eastern Poland meant the Soviet army was no longer on the Stalin Line. Im assuming that in YOUR scenario, Germany beats UK in 1943, or more realistically in 1945. In THAT scenario, you can be sure Stalin will have a plan.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ned
LoTM, setting the USSR aside for the moment, there is a very large issue about America entering into a hot war with Germany. Even after Pearl Harbor, FDR did not have the votes for a DOW. The American people were happy to supply the UK and the Soviet Union, but were also happy to stay out of the fighting and dying.

Why this would have been any different if we flash forward to 1943 with Germany now invading the UK. .

Because in order to do so, Germany has to build a much more substantial navy and air force, and amphibious ships.

All of which have to make even the most died in the wool, britain hating isolationists, very nervous.

A nation that relies on two oceans for its defense, cant afford to ignore a rising naval power. Let alone one that is about to combine the shipyards of the continent, with those of a newly conquered Britain.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Myrddin


Try thinking this through

The barges and ferries will start from ports in France, cross the Channel, unload at beaches in England, and return across the Channel to French ports etc

Where in this cycle are they safe from attack by the Royal Navy, given that the RN was shelling French ports with battleships at night in 1940?

given that they were planning on going over with Rhine River barges, the RN didnt even have to hit them with shell fire - they just needed to run destroyers close enough to swamp them in the destroyer wakes.

Of course by 1943, the Germans would have build a fleet of amphibious vessels capable of carrying a force large enough to beat what the UK would have had for defense in 1943 (far larger than what they had in 1940)

Never mind that the US didnt manage to build such fleet of amphib vessels till 1944. And at the same time Germany would have built an AF sufficient to protect the crossing and the landing. Again, never mind that in 1944, eisenhower wasnt willing to rely on air superiority alone, but brought in a large surface fleet.


So Ned, how many divisions is Germany going to land on D Day, 1943? The allies landed 5, plus the airborne. Are the Germans going to land more than 5? If so, they need MORE transport, logistics, etc than the allies managed in OTL 1944. Are they going to land just 5, or even less? Will that be enough against the UK OOB of summer 1943? Do you know the UK OOB of summer 1943?

[Ned]

Originally posted by Myrddin


Try thinking this through

The barges and ferries will start from ports in France, cross the Channel, unload at beaches in England, and return across the Channel to French ports etc

Where in this cycle are they safe from attack by the Royal Navy, given that the RN was shelling French ports with battleships at night in 1940?

Minefields?

Deploying a lot of mines on the eve of invasion may have been enough to hold the Royal Navy off.

But really, can the Navy travel from safe bases to the channel and back all during the nightime hours? It is a two-edged sword.

That said, you do make a good point.

[Ned]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


Because in order to do so, Germany has to build a much more substantial navy and air force, and amphibious ships.

All of which have to make even the most died in the wool, britain hating isolationists, very nervous.

A nation that relies on two oceans for its defense, cant afford to ignore a rising naval power. Let alone one that is about to combine the shipyards of the continent, with those of a newly conquered Britain.

Are you discounting the fact that the USSR is also in Europe and acts as a "buffer?" If Hitler attacks us, we still have the USSR as potential allies. I am not sure the USSR helps us if we attack Hitler first.

As to the USSR vs. Germany, I think we then might chose sides if one or the other is getting the upper hand.

[Ned]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


given that they were planning on going over with Rhine River barges, the RN didnt even have to hit them with shell fire - they just needed to run destroyers close enough to swamp them in the destroyer wakes.

Of course by 1943, the Germans would have build a fleet of amphibious vessels capable of carrying a force large enough to beat what the UK would have had for defense in 1943 (far larger than what they had in 1940)

Never mind that the US didnt manage to build such fleet of amphib vessels till 1944. And at the same time Germany would have built an AF sufficient to protect the crossing and the landing. Again, never mind that in 1944, eisenhower wasnt willing to rely on air superiority alone, but brought in a large surface fleet.


So Ned, how many divisions is Germany going to land on D Day, 1943? The allies landed 5, plus the airborne. Are the Germans going to land more than 5? If so, they need MORE transport, logistics, etc than the allies managed in OTL 1944. Are they going to land just 5, or even less? Will that be enough against the UK OOB of summer 1943? Do you know the UK OOB of summer 1943?

They wait until they have enough is the answer, which is what I said in the beginning.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ned


Are you discounting the fact that the USSR is also in Europe and acts as a "buffer?" If Hitler attacks us, we still have the USSR as potential allies. I am not sure the USSR helps us if we attack Hitler first.

As to the USSR vs. Germany, I think we then might chose sides if one or the other is getting the upper hand.

The USSR has no real fleet, and is no buffer. The US if it HAD to would use the USSR as a balance, but its far preferable to keep the UK in existence as a balance, and not to be put in the position of relying on Stalin, who will not be in a good situation either once UK is gone and Germany consolidates its position in Europe. Again, even isolation minded congressmen will see that.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ned


They wait until they have enough is the answer, which is what I said in the beginning.

Basically they have to wait till the UK has maxed out its defenisve resources, and then catch up. Lets say UK maxes out in 1943. At that point germany probably needs several more divisions to make the landing. Lets say 8 divisions, plus several airborne. The allies didnt have the resources to do that in 1944, with a much more substantial industrial base. So Im thinking Germany cant do that till, say, 1948. I absolutely do not see the USSR and USA sitting around and waiting for that to happen, nor the USA being pleased with a Germany that has the amphib and naval resources to launch an 8 division invasion.

[Myrddin]

Originally posted by Ned


Minefields?

Deploying a lot of mines on the eve of invasion may have been enough to hold the Royal Navy off.

Nice try

First the Germans have to have the capacity to lay mines faster than the British can sweep them

Second the Germans have to have the capacity to clear British mines faster than they are laid

This doesn't even start to happen until the Germans have naval superiority in the Channel as well as air superiority

[lord of the mark]

BTW ned, im reading about the Panama Canal now. You know one of the reasons the US thought it was so urgent to take over the French diggings and complete the canal in Panama? Thats right, in case the Germans bought out and finished the French canal.

That was also a motivation for the annexation of the Phillipines.

wiki

"The Spanish-American war began in 1898 after the USS Maine, sent to Cuba in connection with an attempt to arrange a peaceful resolution between Cuban independence ambitions and Spanish colonialism, exploded and sank in Havana harbor. After Commodore George Dewey defeated the Spanish squadron at Manila, the U.S. invited Aguinaldo to return to the Philippines, which he did on May 19, 1898, in the hope he would rally Filipinos against the Spanish colonial government. By the time U.S. land forces had arrived, the Filipinos had taken control of the entire island of Luzon, except for the walled city of Intramuros. On June 12, 1898, Aguinaldo declared the independence of the Philippines in Kawit, Cavite, establishing the First Philippine Republic under Asia's first democratic constitution.[6]

Simultaneously, a German squadron arrived in Manila and declared that if the United States did not seize the Philippines as a colonial possession, Germany would. In the Battle of Manila, the United States captured the city from the Spanish. This battle marked an end of Filipino-American collaboration, as Filipino forces were prevented from entering the captured city of Manila, an action deeply resented by the Filipinos.[10] Spain and the United States sent commissioners to Paris to draw up the terms of the Treaty of Paris which ended the Spanish-American War."

[TheStinger]

BY 1943, the Uk had at leat 50 divisions including some armoured ones.

Also if they was still a realistic prospect of invasion in 1943 the defences on the South Coast would be like the Maginot line

[Dis]

the simple fact is both axis powers bit off more than they could chew. It wasn't even close. They had no hope of winning the war in any scenario. Had germany not declared war on the soviet union... But war there was probably inevitable anyways.

Germany had their hands full with England. Having control of the straits of gibralter and suez would be significant, however. It would have extended the war and forced an invasion of normandy earlier, which would have been bloodier.

[Dis]

This may be a stupid question. But what were Hitler's objectives in the war?

If we know them, we can perhaps come up with some scenarios. Obviously he attacked the soviet union for the oil in the south. Suppose he won. Could have have held a country that large? Unlikely. It would have lengthened the war.

Hitler's biggest mistake was starting ww2 in the first place. Why did he feel the need to annex and conquer other countries? They aren't german. astria has similar language, but they still aren't german.

If he wanted to he could have remained in power for decades. No one would have stopped him. This is germany's best chance. Build up over 20 or 30 years, and then perhaps they could have done something (they would have had nukes). Even then, though. Attacking (for the purpose of occupying) other countries is stupid. It just doesn't work in modern times, including Iraq.