Turkey threatens to invade Iraq

[TheStinger]

If Turkey stopped mistreating Kurds, then the PKK would lose all its support

[MOBIUS]

Just like the IRA did when we stopped mistreating the Irish...

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Given Turkish interest in Kirkuk, Turkish discomfort with Kurdish autonomy, etc, it hardly seems all that implausible.

If it's plausible, reassurances of many sorts, by Turkey and by the US, along with diligent safeguards, can be worked out and implemented to allay those concerns. The deployment can be made according to a clearly defined schedule, with 3rd party observers looking on, etc. That's not possible when Iraqi Kurds don't have the larger Iraqi picture in their mind.

I rather suspect that if Turkey had joined in the fight against Saddam, nothing the Kurds could have said would have prevented Turkish troops from entering Iraq overland.

However that moment was lost. Turkey got to stand with the Islamic world, and with France and Germany, against the invasion. Turkey has reaped whatever benefits came from that stand, and now is unfortunately suffering the costs.

Yes, you're right on this. By refusing the US to use our territory, we effectively lost the chance to shape events in the post-war period. While that's true, it's not feasible to say to Turkey "I can't help you because you didn't help me bakc then" because this kind of perpetual reprisal only prolongs the acrimony and threatens cooperation on all other fields, political and military (including the continuing supply of US forces through Turkey).

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ancyrean


Yes, you're right on this. By refusing the US to use our territory, we effectively lost the chance to shape events in the post-war period. While that's true, it's not feasible to say to Turkey "I can't help you because you didn't help me bakc then" because this kind of perpetual reprisal only prolongs the acrimony and threatens cooperation on all other fields, political and military (including the continuing supply of US forces through Turkey).

Im of course not saying we shouldnt help Turkey at all - we can and should help Turkey in any number of ways, from encouraging the EU to give them a viable path to membership, to bilateral economic cooperation, to welcoming their involvement in regional issues, including Lebanon, Israel AND Iraq. And doing what we reasonably can now about the PKK and putting the PKK high on our to do list once the Iraq situation is stabilized.

What we are NOT obligated to do, though, is to endanger the whole Iraq enterprise, at a sensitive time, when we are trying to maneuver the Iraqi govt into concessions to defuse a budding civil war, maneuvers that will require Kurdish cooperation, either as part of the Maliki coalition, or possibly as part of an alternative coalition. Maneuvers to defuse a situation that might well not be nearly as bad had the 4th infantry division deployed as bad (and Im not putting ALL the blame on Turkey for that - it was Rumsfelds duty to have a plan B for getting sufficient troops in, and he didnt - still that doesnt alter the fact that Turkish cooperation at that moment might have changed the course of the last 4 years in Iraq)

I am indeed very sorry that Turkey has lost 40 or more soldiers to the PKK in the last 6 months or so. The Iraqi Army has lost far more. US forces in Iraq have lost far more. The Iraqi civilian losses have been massive. Our first priority has to be resolving that situation.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by Geronimo
Forgive my straying a bit off topic but a couple years ago I remember reading in an article about addmission of Turkey to the EU about a woman (Layla Zana or something like that?) who was released from supposably having been imprisoned for speaking kurdish in Turkeys parliament right after swearing her oath of office as a member of that parliment.

Does anybody know if that account was exaggerated? Was there a kurdish member of paliment who was imprisoned for speaking kurdish in the parliment? If so what did she say? Was it some inflammatory irredentist call for terrorism or some other statement that would explain the imprisonment rather than the mere fact it was spoken in Kurdish?

Yes, it was Leyla Zana.

There had been many Kurdish MPs in the Turkish parliament after every election for as long as there was a parliament. In her case, she was elected on a social democratic ticket in early 90s, maybe 91-92. On the day of the ceremony of taking the oath in parliament, she appeared in session with some kind of a headband with the colours of the PKK, read the oath in Turkish and then launched herself into a statement in Kurdish about how she will work for the brotherhood of Kurdish and Turkish peoples or something to that effect. While her words sounds all politically correct, it actually was the exact phraseology that the PKK uses.

Those times were when the PKK was at its strongest, and soldiers, teachers and civilians died on a daily basis. Her launching into PKK language in Kurdish during the oath ceremony was indeed a transparent provocation. She was subsequently shorn of her MP-status, tried with anti-terror laws on charges of accomplicity with PKK and using the parliament stand for the PKK, and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

She emerged from the prison after the harmonisation laws with the EU was enacted, a few years prior to the end of her time. So far acted moderately in advancing Kurdish rights, renounced and condemned use of force (in contrast to the PKK), avoided the fiery and provocative tone of her earlier years, received international human rights awards.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by VetLegion
Ancyrean, is Kurdish population in Turkey still increasing at faster rate than Turkish?

Does Turkish government see that as a long term problem? I know most of them are peaceful, but that can change. Guerillas certainly couldn't operate in Turkey without local support.

Actually, very recently there has been a comprehensive poll by the Turkish daily Milliyet on the ethnic composition of Turkey, with 48,000 respondents all over the country. According to the results, the number of Kurds in Turkey (in terms of first language used) is around 10-11 million. 3 million people are from marriages of Turks and Kurds. The largest Kurdish population emerged in Istanbul, with more than 1,5 million. As for the rate of pop increase of Kurds, it declined over the years, still remaining above that of the Turks as of now.

I don't think anybody here feels seriously threatened by the population increase of the Kurds, since their number is around 1/6th of that of Turks. As the economy grows, more and more Kurds get better off and have less children. Turkish population is expected to plateau at 90 million in the next 30-40 years and I would guess the number of Kurds would probably not exceed 20 million of that figure, slowing down to an equilibrium around that range.

[VetLegion]

I don't think anybody here feels seriously threatened by the population increase of the Kurds, since their number is around 1/6th of that of Turks.

But that's huge. Serbs in Croatia rebelled when they while being only 12% of the population. Or 800 000 Chechens vs. 140 million Russians. Or East Timorians vs. Indonesia.

On the other hand, mixed marriages are a great sign of integration into society. If there are many, that's good

BTW., how come you're quoting a newspaper poll? Something wrong with the figures from the oficial census?

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by VetLegion

I don't think anybody here feels seriously threatened by the population increase of the Kurds, since their number is around 1/6th of that of Turks.

But that's huge. Serbs in Croatia rebelled when they while being only 12% of the population. Or 800 000 Chechens vs. 140 million Russians. Or East Timorians vs. Indonesia.

On the other hand, mixed marriages are a great sign of integration into society. If there are many, that's good

BTW., how come you're quoting a newspaper poll? Something wrong with the figures from the oficial census?

It's a large proportion, yes (some 15 %), but Turks and Kurds have been living for almost a thousand years with the benefit of sharing the same religion, unlike the minorities you mention. Although Kurdish rebellions were endemic in history, they were on tribal rather than national basis. Overall, they are fairly decently integrated into the society in general.

On intermarriages; I also think it's a great sign. Children of mixed parents are always the best guarantee for coexistence

About the newspaper poll; official numbers are actually not useful in this respect because state censuses don't ask about ethnicity and spoken language at home as a matter of principle (all citizens are equal; by law being Turkish is considered as denoting possession of country's citizenship, not as marking membership to the Turkish race).

[VetLegion]

Although Kurdish rebellions were endemic in history, they were on tribal rather than national basis.

Didn't know this. I thought Kurdish nationalism was the motivation for Kurds, even the commies.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

What we are NOT obligated to do, though, is to endanger the whole Iraq enterprise, at a sensitive time, when we are trying to maneuver the Iraqi govt into concessions to defuse a budding civil war, maneuvers that will require Kurdish cooperation, either as part of the Maliki coalition, or possibly as part of an alternative coalition. Maneuvers to defuse a situation that might well not be nearly as bad had the 4th infantry division deployed as bad (and Im not putting ALL the blame on Turkey for that - it was Rumsfelds duty to have a plan B for getting sufficient troops in, and he didnt - still that doesnt alter the fact that Turkish cooperation at that moment might have changed the course of the last 4 years in Iraq)

I am indeed very sorry that Turkey has lost 40 or more soldiers to the PKK in the last 6 months or so. The Iraqi Army has lost far more. US forces in Iraq have lost far more. The Iraqi civilian losses have been massive. Our first priority has to be resolving that situation.

There's another thing I forgot to mention before. What many don't also understand here is, if an incursion by Turkish troops have that many complications, and if the Americans can't spare any troops for the job themselves, why not drop some bombs on the PKK bases and installations? What's holding the US back about that? If you fear the reaction of the Kurdish government in the north so much as to not even bomb terrorist Kurds (which have nothing to do with the Kurdish authority) now, how will you do it when their continued participation in the common Iraqi enterprise will be as important as their initial joining?

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by VetLegion

Although Kurdish rebellions were endemic in history, they were on tribal rather than national basis.

Didn't know this. I thought Kurdish nationalism was the motivation for Kurds, even the commies.

Historically the Turkish state usually played off one Kurdish tribe against other. Some tribes had a history of supporting the state, some rising against it. There were local rebellions of varying magnitudes, but there was no single unifying leader for the cause for all the Kurds. PKK brought a totally new dimension to Kurdish nationalism, in terms of doctrine and organisation. Yet again, PKK doesn't command the support of anything near the majority of Kurds in Turkey, let alone outside of it.

[TheStinger]

Originally posted by MOBIUS
Just like the IRA did when we stopped mistreating the Irish...

Sinn Fein became the largest nationalist/republican party after the IRA ceasefire

[Dinner]

True that.