Turkey threatens to invade Iraq

[Sava]

seriously

[Darius871]

Quite.

[Perfection]

I think everyone should invade Iraq. That would be insanely cool

[Ancyrean]

There is indeed intense public reaction towards the US due to its conduct in Northern Iraq. The Turkish government and the army have so far maintained quite a sober grasp of the complexities of the situation, including the utter American dependance on Kurdish warlords in the north. Everybody realises that an operation into northern Iraq will be difficult, but they are running out of options fast.

Those warlords-turned-leaders (Barzani and also Talabani-the honourable president of new Iraq) say they can't attack fellow Kurds (PKK), even if they are seperatists of a neighbouring country. They can't also give the green-light for others to do the job. Americans in their turn don't have enough credit with those leaders to tell, let alone convince, them to let PKK go. Result: functional US protection of the PKK.

I really don't think this course of events is viable in the long run. The winter thaw in the mountains has recently started, the army already massed tens of thousands of troops and armour along the border. Specops started to go in an out of the area frequently for quite a while. Did I also mention this is an election year in Turkey?

Any intensification of the PKK attacks in the coming months will almost certainly trigger a massive Turkish military incursion, despite any sad side effects on the surge.

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by VetLegion
If only Turkey invaded Iran, or vice versa. Then we'd finally have a proper war with real battles for War Nerd to write columns about and us to read. This guerrilla thing is not very interesting.

(DISCLAIMER: yes, war is bad, destruction and suffering is bad and I don't wish more of it in the ME, but admit it, Turkey vs. Iran would be interesting).

Interesting from a distance

In fact, both countries are too large to win in a total war, and too proud historically to forget a defeat in a limited one. Our regimes are diametrically opposed, so we mutually have the option of inciting hostile ideological propoganda. There are around 25 million Turkish speaking Azeris in Iran and 10 million Shiite-associated Alewites in Turkey. Although both minorities have shown remarkable integration with their host countries over the past centuries, it adds to the list of reasons for both countries to keep it cool.

A war between Turkey and Iran a lose-lose situation whichever way you look at it. We know each other too well to get ourselves in a war .

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by Brachy-Pride


Serious question, why didnt greece go to war when that happened? Because turkey was a very valuable ONU member during the cold war?

Simply because the military junta in Greece at the time couldn't be sure enough of a clear victory over Turkey in a multi-front war (in the air and on the sea in the Aegean, on the land in Thrace, all the while trying to supply faraway troops in Cyprus. In other words, they didn't because they utterly couldn't.

There was also the fact that the already internationally unpopular junta would probably not make things better for itself by threatening the integrity of NATO by attacking another NATO member.

Cyprus had been a great opportunity for the junta to prove its nationalist credentials toward the Greek public. They nurtured the Greek Cypriot nationalists (by financial and material help, sending mainland Greek troops under Cypriot uniforms, sending officers etc etc)for years, banking on the essentially irrational calculation that Turkey would just watch aside while Cyprus united with Greece.

In the end, the junta created their own demise by not being able to handle the situation when their efforts came to their natural fruition, the point of a coup in Cyprus to bring about the Cypriot anschluss. Their inability to prevent Turkey's response discgraced them beyond repair.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Perfection
I think everyone should invade Iraq. That would be insanely cool

Invading Iraq is just so 2003.

[MOBIUS]

If it was OK for Israel to invade Lebanon, then it sure as hell is OK for the Turks to invade Kurdish Iraq - but they shouldn't stop until they've destroyed that regions entire infrastructure, just like Israel...

I also like the US' hypocrisy in dealing with terrorist organisations...

[Elok]

We already destroyed that region's infrastructure, dumbass. We uprooted it wholesale, remember? They can't have rebuilt that much in three years or so, not with things as they are. Turkey needs to give them a while to build oil wells with security strong enough to prevent arson before blowing said wells up with airstrikes. It's just common courtesy.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by MOBIUS
If it was OK for Israel to invade Lebanon, then it sure as hell is OK for the Turks to invade Kurdish Iraq - but they shouldn't stop until they've destroyed that regions entire infrastructure, just like Israel...

I also like the US' hypocrisy in dealing with terrorist organisations...

The PKK has kidnapped Turkish troops across the border? Its firing missiles into Turkish towns? The PKK denies Turkeys right to exist?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Elok
We already destroyed that region's infrastructure, dumbass. We uprooted it wholesale, remember?

In Kurdistan? Er no. In fact Kurdistan is apparently thriving, and is getting in migrants from other parts of Iraq.

[Elok]

Yeah, I was thinking of Iraq in general when I posted that. Heh, whoops. Oh well, at least I was rude to MOBIUS, even if it was for the wrong reason. That's got to count for something.

[lord of the mark]

If Turkey were to agree to Kurdish aspirations to a full autonomy within Iraq, and to agree that the status of Kirkuk was an internal Iraqi matter, to be decided withoug Turkish input, in return for full cooperation of all Iraqi authorities, including in Kurdistan, for a crackdown on the PKK, would Talibani and Barzani really turn it down?

[Ancyrean]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


The PKK has kidnapped Turkish troops across the border? Its firing missiles into Turkish towns? The PKK denies Turkeys right to exist?

Yes, the nature of the threat Hizbullah poses to Israel and PKK to Turkey is different. However, the PKK is still responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians and military personnel in Turkey over the past 15 years. PKK terrorists still infiltrate from across the border regulary to ambush military convoys and units, lay land mines, extort money from the locals. They have around 5000 people across the border to those all these. Not to mention also their extensive network of drugs-guns-people smuggling that reaches into Europe.

In Kurdistan? Er no. In fact Kurdistan is apparently thriving, and is getting in migrants from other parts of Iraq.

Any Turkish operation would only be concentrated towards the immediate area in Northern Iraq. It wouldn't be with a view to go all the way down to Erbil and destroy the economic development in the region. Much of that development is due to Turkish businessmen and investors. The Kurdish authority's only exit to the world is through Turkey. Their refined oil is supplied by Turkey.

It makes more sense to keep Northern Iraq as much dependant on Turkey as possible instead of turning the entire region against Turkey by an orgy of destruction.

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Elok
Yeah, I was thinking of Iraq in general when I posted that. Heh, whoops. Oh well, at least I was rude to MOBIUS, even if it was for the wrong reason. That's got to count for something.

Yeah, basically you got pwned and looked like a total dick all in one post... Bravo **** for brains...!