Petraeus: "Surge" has 25% chance of success.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


WRT to Sunni insurgent attacks yes. Not wrt to Shiite retaliations, AFAICT.

The US has been incapable of stamping out the Sunni insurgency for the last 4 years. I see nothing in the current surge that will allow the US to finally get control of that situation, and the problem is that while the surge had certainly brought down killings by Shiite death squads in Baghdad (not only because of the increased forces, but also because the Shiite parties in power have put pressure on other Shiite factions to play nice and go along), it is only with the defeat of the Sunni insurgency that peace can come.

What new political conditions have been created that bring us closer to a political solution? The main parties in Iraq are all still secterian parties with constituencies made up almost exclusively of one sect or the other. So politics remains a bunch of secterian horse trading. It would be nice to think that Sunni parties might have caught a glimpse of their future if they failed to play nice with the Shiites when the death squads were more active, but their rhetoric and the continuing violence in the Sunni areas does not seem to bear this out. The older more established (and more Iran connected) Shiite groups like Dawa or SCRII might support the current security plan, but if the AQ types pull off some new massive attack against something very Holy to Shiites their constituency might not allow them to continue to stand by this US plan. And then of course there is the coming referendum in Kirkut coming up.

[MOBIUS]

This 'Surge' is going great just recently...

A helicopter shot down, one of Baghdad's main bridges blown up AND at least one Iraqi MP killed INSIDE the Green Zone - not to mention the massive increase in killings outside of Baghdad...

Very impressive. Now they're talking of sectioning Baghdad off into a series of giant open air prisons - they're making this stuff up as they go along...

[Dinner]

What happens when the surge fails? The Bush Administration wants to "resurge" that is increase the escalation from 21k troops to 34k troops. That's right folks... Bush is pushing to escalate the war a second time. Not that it will do him any good.

U.S. considers sending 13,000 new troops to Iraq

Last Updated: Tuesday, April 10, 2007 | 12:22 PM ET
CBC News

U.S. President George W. Bush could send as many as 13,000 new troops to Iraq by the end of the year and extend the deployments of thousands more soldiers currently serving in Iraq.

The U.S. Department of Defence announced Monday it had sent out notices to members of National Guard units in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Indiana and Ohio.

The four brigade combat teams, which include about 13,000 soldiers, could be sent to Iraq starting in December for a year-long deployment.

The call-up is controversial because under Pentagon rules, National Guard troops can only be deployed every five years. About one-third of the affected troops will have had only two years between deployments.

The move comes more than three months after Bush announced a "troop surge" of roughly 20,500 additional soldiers. Most were sent to Baghdad to clamp down on rising sectarian violence in the capital.

Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, has recently told Pentagon officials he believes the troop surge is paying off in Baghdad and doesn't want to lose momentum by shrinking the size of the force.
Continue Article

There are roughly 145,000 American troops currently serving in Iraq.

"The final determination of whether these units will deploy will be made based on conditions on the ground in Iraq," said a news release from the Pentagon.

Also Monday, the Pentagon said it is considering extending the tours of duty of 15,000 soldiers already in Iraq.

The five brigades would have to spend an extra four months in service before heading home.

The troop alerts and word of possible extensions come as Bush and the Democratic-controlled Congress wrestle over legislation that would set timelines for troop withdrawals from Iraq.

Bush asked for more than $100 billion US to pay for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan this year.

Congress has approved the money, but the Senate added a provision calling for most U.S. combat troops to be out of Iraq by March 31, 2008. The House version demands a September 2008 withdrawal. Bush has said he would veto any legislation that includes such deadlines.

With files from the Associated Press

[Dinner]

To be fair Baghdad is the key to Iraq. If they can make Baghdad safe and keep it safe then that creates a central core to build upon. The problem is they can't keep it safe and they can only minimize the worst ethnic cleansing until the troop surge ends around next Christmas. Since they've pulled forces into Baghdad from outlining areas the violence will just move from Baghdad to the rest of Iraq and will return to Baghdad as soon as the foreigners leave.

[Dinner]

Of course Bush's new escalation is desperately needed because of this (hint, Sadr told his militia to kill Americans):

al-Sadr calls for attacks on U.S. troops

By SAAD ABDUL KADIR, Associated Press WriterSun Apr 8, 9:09 AM ET

The renegade cleric Muqtada al-Sadr urged Iraqi forces to stop cooperating with the United States and told his guerrilla fighters to concentrate their attacks on American troops rather than Iraqis, according to a statement issued Sunday.

The statement, stamped with al-Sadr's official seal, was distributed in the Shiite holy city of Najaf on Sunday — a day before a large demonstration there, called for by al-Sadr, to mark the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad.

"You, the Iraqi army and police forces, don't walk alongside the occupiers, because they are your archenemy," the statement said. Its authenticity could not be verified.

In the statement, al-Sadr — who commands an enormous following among Iraq's majority Shiites and has close allies in the Shiite-dominated government — also encouraged his followers to attack only American forces, not fellow Iraqis.

"God has ordered you to be patient in front of your enemy, and unify your efforts against them — not against the sons of Iraq," the statement said, in an apparent reference to clashes between al-Sadr's Mahdi Army fighters and Iraqi troops in Diwaniyah, south of Baghdad. "You have to protect and build Iraq."

The U.S. military on Sunday announced the deaths of four American soldiers, killed a day earlier in an explosion near their vehicle in Diyala province northeast of Baghdad. The province has seen a spike in attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces since the start of a plan two months ago to pacify the capital. Officials believe militants have streamed out of Baghdad to invigorate the insurgency in areas just outside the city.

Separately, a pickup truck loaded with artillery shells exploded Sunday near a hospital south of Baghdad, killing at least 15 people. The blast left a crater 10 yards wide, the Iraqi military said.

Three mortars sailed into houses in eastern Baghdad, sending six people to the hospital with breathing difficulties from a possible chemical agent, police said.

Doctors said the victims' faces turned yellow and they were unable to open their eyes. One hospital official said the chemical was chlorine, and that the victims were expected to recover.

Chlorine has been used in at least nine attacks in Iraq since January, mostly in bombings by al-Qaida in Iraq.

The bombing in Mahmoudiyah involved a pickup truck parked next to the city General Hospital, an Iraqi army officer said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the matter. Other reports said the explosion was a rocket attack.

At least 26 people were wounded, he said.

Hours later, five burned and mutilated bodies remained scattered at the scene. Most of the dead were technicians who worked at auto repair shops nearby, officials said.

The hospital was slightly damaged by flying debris and shrapnel, but shops and residential buildings bore more damage. Many of those wounded were in their homes at the time of the blast.

Mahmoudiyah is 20 miles south of Baghdad.

Also Sunday, Iran's state news agency reported that a spokesman for the country's foreign ministry confirmed that Iran refused to allow Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's plane to fly through Iranian airspace. But the spokesman, Mohammad Ali Hosseini, said the dispute was only a technical issue.

"For all flights there is a need for authorization, for which formalities must have been done in advance," he was quoted as saying.

Members of the delegation traveling with al-Maliki told The Associated Press early Sunday that the plane was diverted to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, where al-Maliki stayed in the airport for more than three hours while his government aircraft was refueled and a new flight plan was filed.

The four U.S. soldiers killed Saturday were assigned to Task Force Lightning, the U.S. military said in a statement. A fifth soldier was wounded in the blast.

At least 3,274 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count. The figure includes seven military civilians.

In the past two weeks, U.S. forces cleared two "terrorist safe havens" and surrounding palm groves in Diyala — killing more than 30 suspected militants, capturing 28 and seizing more than 15 weapons caches, the military said in a statement.

U.S. forces also captured a senior al-Qaida leader and two others in a raid Sunday morning in Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

The al-Qaida figure was identified as "the gatekeeper to the al-Qaida emir of Baghdad" and was linked to several car bomb attacks in the Iraqi capital, the military said in a statement, without naming the captive.

Thousands of Iraqis streamed toward the Shiite holy city of Najaf for a demonstration Monday to mark the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad.

Witnesses said thousands of residents of Baghdad's largest Shiite slum, Sadr City, boarded buses and minivans Sunday for Najaf.

"The faithful should participate in a demonstration in Najaf on April 9, demanding that the occupiers withdraw from our lands. They should carry or wear Iraqi flags," said a statement released by al-Sadr's office.

On Sunday, Iraqi flags flew from most houses and shops in Sadr City. Drivers and motorcyclists affixed them to their vehicles. Police escorted convoys of pickup trucks overflowing with young boys waving Iraqi flags, en route to Najaf.

An Iraqi flag was hoisted over a military base in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, as Iraqi troops took control of the facility Sunday from British forces. The Shat al-Arab base is the second base transfered to Iraqi control in Basra over the past month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070408/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_070408114317

[Patroklos]

Where did you get they have moved troops from other areas to Bagdad? Doesn't make sense if they are sending 34,000 more troops and the Baghdad garrison didn't increase by that numbers, were did the rest of those troops go? Net, after all the pieces are moved, I bet the other areas of Iraq will look much the same as far a troop levels go.

Next Christmas is a long ways off. If they can keep the peace up to then, especially through the muslim religious holidays, perhaps some of the population will lose their bloodlust. We shall see, just my opinion.

[Dinner]

It's something I saw on the news a while back when they were discussing the surge. They said they'd move additional forces into the country but also reprioritize where the troops who were already in country were deployed.

Did you also hear that all new deployments are now going to be a year and a half instead of the old 8 month tours like I did?

[Patroklos]

Yeah, it was announced yesterday officially I think.

About time, now if they would just raise a war tax for those of us on the homefront maybe it would look like we were taking this thing seriously.

Watched the chief of the national guard testify before congress, and he metioned how disgusted he was that as far as the average American is concerend nothing is going on. Sure everyone *****es and moans but almost no one actually experiances any hardship unless your a family member.

[Dinner]

War taxes would be a good idea. Let the war supporters in Congress put up or shut up. I could see the Republicans now: "Of course I support the war, I just don't think we should pay for it".

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Oerdin
"Of course I support the war, I just don't think we should pay for it".

Isn't that called the spiraling national debt...

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by Oerdin
War taxes would be a good idea. Let the war supporters in Congress put up or shut up. I could see the Republicans now: "Of course I support the war, I just don't think we should pay for it".

Someone should propose funding the war by rasing capital gains taxation. That'd be interesting to watch.

[Dinner]

The Republicans would just claim that we have enough money to pay for the war without raising taxes. Of course, that ignores the fact that we have to largest budget deficit in the history of humanity. But we must not speak truth when it is unpopular with campaign donors.

[MOBIUS]

Otherwise you might not be able to board a plane without harrassment...

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Oerdin
The Republicans would just claim that we have enough money to pay for the war without raising taxes. Of course, that ignores the fact that we have to largest budget deficit in the history of humanity. But we must not speak truth when it is unpopular with campaign donors.

We also have the largest economy in the history of humanity. That softens the blow a bit.

[Patroklos]

Someone should propose funding the war by rasing capital gains taxation.

That makes no sence, why would you foist something that every citizen is responsible for on a select goup?

There is more to taxes that simply raising X amount of dollars.