Petraeus: "Surge" has 25% chance of success.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ramo

Yeah, the Iraqi gov't tried to hoodwink us on that one. They didn't normalize the mortality count wrt the length of the month, and didn't include the last day of February...

The Iraqi government officially stopped reporting civilian deaths. Officially it claimed it was to difficult for it to record and report how many of its civilians died each month but large numbers of inside sources have admitted to the press that the main reason was that it was embarrassing to the government. They kept taking a cheney-esque line claiming that everything is getting better but kept getting caught with the "if everything is getting better then why do your own statistics say body counts continue to rise?" line. The Iraqi government solution was to stop recording deaths. No body count = no reason to explain why ever more people are dying as they claim things are getting better.

[Drake Tungsten]

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Given the continued level of carbombings, the major uncertainties about political progress, and the general uncertainty associated with operations in Iraq its premature to say things are "going pretty well" even with the caveat "so far"

If a 50% reduction in deaths after only a couple weeks of the surge isn't enough to warrant the tepid praise that is "it's going pretty well so far", I don't know what is...

basically after only a few weeks, unless Al Sadr and Mutlaq were dancing the Hora and singing God Bless America I would avoid saying anything positive. Too often something started well, and then turned bad. Better to emphasize how hard things will be, and hope to be surprised in the positive direction.

[Drake Tungsten]

Too often something started well, and then turned bad.

So what? The fact that things turned bad later doesn't change the fact that they started well. I don't see why I should deny the current reality of the situation because there's a (good) chance that things may not go as well in the future.

[Ramo]

Do you have data on the mortality count in Baghdad for Feb, and for the previous 12 months? Brookings Iraq Index doesnt break out Baghdad, and doesnt have data for Feb for civilian deaths posted yet.

Nope, I don't know of a Baghdad tally. I was referring to the numbers that the Iraqi Ministries of Interior, Defence, and Health came up with - that was almost certainly the source of the NPR story you heard.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=164851

But theyre not disputing the allocation of revenues then, are they? The key Sunni vs Shia issue(wrt oil) , IIUC. Odd that the Sunnis would object now, as they were part of the negotiations. The Sadrists only have 30 seats and may well lose in parliament, if the Kurds, the other Shiites, the Allawi block, and most of the Sunnis vote together.

The issue seems kind of muddy to me... Some people are saying that the Sunnis fear the prerogatives the regions have in negotiation of oil contracts could be the basis for engineering a secession, while others seem to be saying that the central council is going to be a tool of big oil, and will aggressively purse production sharing agreements...

As for parliamentary opposition, labor seems to be strongly against the law, and I'd imagine that they might be able to push some Da'wa mp's against the law. Remember, this was a smoke-filled room drafting process, and the rank and file legislators of the various parties might not be following their leadership.

[Ramo]

The Iraqi government officially stopped reporting civilian deaths.

Yep, but they went to the effort just now to tabulate the body count to prove the glorious results of the surge for American consumption. Guess they were successful if NPR didn't realize that the figures weren't normalized...

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo


Yep, but they went to the effort just now to tabulate the body count to prove the glorious results of the surge for American consumption. Guess they were successful if NPR didn't realize that the figures weren't normalized...

Or maybe NPR knows how to divide 30 into 28 themselves?

I doubt it was the number in the Turkish press article, which seems to be for the country as a whole. Im pretty sure NPR was referring to Baghdad only.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Too often something started well, and then turned bad.

So what? The fact that things turned bad later doesn't change the fact that they started well. I don't see why I should deny the current reality of the situation because there's a (good) chance that things may not go as well in the future.

Because it raises expectations. If you say its going hunky dory, and it goes only "OK" then its a disaster. If you say nothing, and it goes "OK" then its "OK"


What is to be gained by touting uncertain successes.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

What is to be gained by touting uncertain successes.

Flip side, "What is to be gained by declaring certain failure?"

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe


Flip side, "What is to be gained by declaring certain failure?"

i wouldnt do that either.

[Ramo]

It really does look like the "surge" has simply distributed the sectarian violence around the rest of the country. See yesterday's attack on Shia pilgrims at Hilla (that killed 114)...

[Ramo]

Or maybe NPR knows how to divide 30 into 28 themselves?

Thought you were referring to total casualties. So NPR has an estimate for Baghdad?

And 31 into 27...

[Drake Tungsten]

If you say its going hunky dory, and it goes only "OK" then its a disaster.

Only in the eyes of morons...

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
It really does look like the "surge" has simply distributed the sectarian violence around the rest of the country. See yesterday's attack on Shia pilgrims at Hilla (that killed 114)...

WRT to Sunni insurgent attacks yes. Not wrt to Shiite retaliations, AFAICT.

[DRoseDARs]

And The Surge's troop levels just keep on surgin'...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070311/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_iraq

Bush seeks 8,200 more troops for wars

By DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writer 17 minutes ago

MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay -
President Bush asked Congress on Saturday for $3.2 billion to pay for 8,200 more U.S. troops needed in
Afghanistan and
Iraq on top of the 21,500-troop buildup he announced in January.

Bush wants Congress to fund 3,500 new U.S. troops to expand training of local police and army units in Afghanistan. The money also would pay for the estimated 3,500 existing U.S. troops he already announced would be staying longer in the region to counter an anticipated Taliban offensive in Afghanistan this spring.

In Iraq, most of the additional troops would help with the latest Baghdad security plan, which is getting under way in the capital. The money would pay for 2,400 combat support troops, 2,200 military police forces and 129 troops for reconstruction teams.

The budget revisions come as many lawmakers opposed to the buildup in Iraq are debating funding for the war. But in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (news, bio, voting record), Bush proposed canceling $3.2 billion in low-priority defense items to offset the extra money needed to support the additional troops.

Cutting the programs, he said, would eliminate the need to increase the overall $93.4 billion in additional defense money he's already requested to finance this year's war operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"This revised request would better align resources based on the assessment of military commanders to achieve the goal of establishing Iraq and Afghanistan as democratic and secure nations that are free of terrorism," Bush wrote in his letter to lawmakers.

Bush signed the letter on his flight Friday from Brazil to Uruguay, part of his five-nation tour of Latin America that continues on Sunday in Colombia. The White House released the letter Saturday in Montevideo, Uruguay.

Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, recently hinted of the need to bolster the U.S. troop presence in Iraq.

"Gen. Petraeus expects under the Baghdad security plan as well as other parts of Iraq, that the number of people going into detention will increase and so these military police forces will be for that," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council.