Tweet
US Jewish lobby warns Turkish MFA: Even we might not be able to block the Armenian genocide bill if you don’t move
I am not trying to draw up a new crisis scenario for this year.
However, I received news that might have a “profound impact” on Turkey-U.S. relations at a dinner for top officials last night.
A very important member of the Jewish lobby in the United States said very openly, “If Turkey doesn't do something, the Armenian genocide bill will pass in the U.S. Congress despite our best efforts to block it.”
Indeed, this information which was “very sharply” worded had a cold-shower effect on all of us seated around the table including retired ambassadors and reputable businessmen.
Everybody there knew what Nancy Pelosi had promised the Armenian diaspora regarding a genocide bill and that she had pressed the button to start actual work on the topic, but nobody really expected a representative of the Jewish lobby to declare that “even we might not be able to block it if continues like this.”
The Armenian genocide bill appears on the U.S. agenda every year on April 24 but it has always been blocked by the president (regardless of whether he is a Democrat or a Republican) on one side and the Jewish lobby on the other side openly supporting Turkey.
However, according to what our guest was saying, neither the Jewish lobby nor President George W. Bush's last-minute efforts will stop the bill. The current political environment in the United States has turned against Turkey to an unprecedented degree. The degree is so large that the American Armenian National Congress expressed in a statement issued last week that their chances for passing the bill are now the highest they have been in the last decade.
But why is that?
For one thing, newly elected Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will be taking up the bill, which was last year abandoned by Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert after President Bush interfered. This is why the genocide bill which made its way to the House of Representatives last year is almost sure to be sent to the Senate after being voted on in the House. Secondly, the Democrats have a majority in the Senate, unlike last year.
Thirdly, the Armenian diaspora, which collected signatures from 32 senators and 175 congressmen in 2005 in a letter calling for Bush to recognize the genocide, has already guaranteed 50 senators will support the bill this year.
Lastly, President Bush, who was able to block the bill from being adopted at the last minute last year doesn't seem to have the power or the room to maneuver to block the bill this year.
For all these reasons, the U.S. Jewish lobby which has always managed to block the Armenian genocide bill in the past has warned the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to “either do something or be ready to face the consequences.”
The other day, I talked to a senior diplomat from the MFA to confirm what our guest said. He sufficed to say, “Unfortunately, all that you heard is true.”
What can Turkey do to reverse the tide in the United States?
There are three possible answers to this answer.
A group of senior diplomats criticize Turkey's past policies regarding the allegation and assert that “there's nothing we can do after this hour.”
Some in the Jewish Lobby believe that it is still not too late. If Turkey established diplomatic relations and opened the borders with Armenia, the tide could turn around. They have already suggested this as a way out to the Turkish MFA.
A third group says, since an overwhelming majority of parliaments in the world have already recognized the genocide, the United States will inevitably have to join them in the end. Turkey should be producing pro-active policies rather than reactionary policies on this topic.
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül in a recent interview with the Sabah daily expressed that they perceived the Armenian question as the second biggest threat for Turkey after the situation in Iraq. “The Armenian question will be taken up in the United States again," Gül said. "We are trying to block that. This topic will never be off the table for Turkey. We should always be alert and prepared. If this bill is passed, it might lead to very complicated consequences. We have no way out but to prevent this from happening.”
Obviously, Gül demonstrates that he has taken the warnings he received very seriously.
Another official from the MFA told me: “Although the atmosphere in the United States seems to be against Turks, we can still get some of the Democrats and Republicans on our side by staying on top of the issue. It is not too late.”
The same official said he didn't even want to imagine what it would be like if Turkish-U.S. relations were further crippled by the Armenian bill after the row over Iraq. U.S. diplomats express similar concerns.
Diplomats of both countries are concerned that U.S. acceptance of the genocide won't be anything like that of France of Slovakia. Turkish-U.S. relations from military tenders to trade relations would be dealt a very heavy blow. The image of the United States in the public opinion, which is currently panting on the floor (with only 20 percent of the population having positive feelings toward the Unites States) would crash altogether. The wounds still healing after the crisis over Turkey's rejection to deploy U.S. troops on its bases would be hit even worse than they were by the problems with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Iraq. This is why both Turkish and U.S. diplomats don't want to accept this as the end-scenario.
However, the bill has already turned into a scare for the Jewish lobby in the United States.
The only hope, for now, is Turkey's opening up its border with Armenia.
Although the MFA seems to be favoring a more pro-active policy, this seems unlikely since 2007 is the year of general elections in Turkey.
As you can see, the year 2007 is pregnant with a crisis that would leave even crises over the presidential elections and the general elections in the shadow, with the Jewish lobby already warning the Turkish MFA about the yet unborn child.
I know that Israel and Turkey are allies, is that the only reason for this?
Or is there also, I dont know how to call it, genocide competition?
Comment