Israel plans using mini nukes to blow up Iran nuclea facilities

[Dr Strangelove]

COuld this possibly be made up?

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Ned
Darius, while there is a lot of Israeli this and Israeli that in the article, it never really identifies who disclosed the information to the Times.

Read it again. No, read it three times. It didn't just say the word 'Israeli' x number of times, it very clearly indicated that its sources were Israeli officials. The only US officials even mentioned were those approached to comment on the Iranian nuclear issue in a general way, or to comment on the leak itself after the fact. But maybe you're more comfortable with a completely unfounded assumption.

Oh wait, I'm talking to Ned here.

Originally posted by Ned
But I would find it amazing, literally, that the Israeli military would disclose that they are practicing already, etc., and the high level of detail in the Israeli plans.

It's not amazing at all; disclosure would serve as A) a warning to Washington that if the US doesn't stop the Iranian program conventionally then Israel will unconventionally (with disastrous consequences), and B) a possible deterrent to Tehran. In fact, the OP that you apparently only skimmed pointed to the same rationale:

the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack

[Cranky]

Woot... more death and destruction. The right wing psycho-crap just love this blood lust stuff.

[Fake Boris]

Y'know, brown people aren't really smart enough to understand MAD. Therefore Iran will start a nuclear war.

[Darius871]

The concern is about millenarian fanatics hoping to accelerate a messianic age; whether they happen to also be brownies is irrelevant.

[joncha]

[GePap]

I wouldn't call the Olmert government "millenarian fanatics"

While I can see why a nutcase like Drake would think this a sound plan, for Israel to attempt it would be a disaster.

Assuming the plan was to work anyways, which is doubtful because Iran has hidden much work, Israel attacking Iran with any form of nuclear weapon would:

1. not stop Iran. Iran would only be slowed down, but such an attack would give it carte blanche to drop out of the NPT and persue nukes, since it could claim accurately that neighboring states were seeking to destroy it with nuclear weapons.

2. Destroy current Israeli nuclear policy and spur both Egypt and KSA to build nukes. A state that uses nukes shows itself capable of anything, and obviously its neighbors would have every rational reason to think that regime no longer trustworthy.

3. Possibly ring the deathknell of the NPT if Israel were not severaly punished by the international community for using nulcear weapons. If Israel used nukes offensively and the UNSC did not slap harsh sanctions on them for it, the rest of the world would seriously have to evaluate their current aquiescense to a nuclear monopoly.

4. Strengthen Iran's diplomatic hand in the ME and undermine any attempts by Egypt or KSA to sideline them. NO Muslim government could possibly do anything else other than side with Iran under those conditions.

One hopes none in Israel is stupid enough to contemplate such an attack seriously, and if I am mistaken with that preposition, hopefully no one in the US is so monumnetally moronic (unlike several poly posters) to actually ever let the Israelis think the US would go along with such idiocy.

[GePap]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/810130.html

Israel denies plan to hit Iran enrichment plant with tactical nukes
By Haaretz Service and Agencies

The Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem denied Sunday a report in the British media that Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment facilities with conventional and tactical nuclear weapons.

Citing what it said were several Israel Defense Forces sources, the British newspaper The Sunday Times said two Israel Air Force squadrons had been training to blow up an enrichment plant in Natanz using low-yield nuclear "bunker busters."

Two other sites, a heavy water plant at Arak and a uranium conversion plant at Isfahan, would be targeted with conventional bombs, the Sunday Times said.

But Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said that Israel wanted the issue of Iran's nuclear program resolved through diplomacy.

"The focus of the Israeli activity today is to give full support to diplomatic actions and the expeditious and full implementation of Security Council resolution 1737. If diplomacy succeeds, the problem can be solved peaceably."

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office declined earlier to respond to the report.

"We don't comment on stories like this in the Sunday Times," said Olmert's spokeswoman, Miri Eisin.

Minister of Strategic Threats Avigdor Lieberman also declined to comment.

In Tehran, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told a news conference that the newspaper report "will make clear to the world public opinion that the Zionist regime is the main menace to global peace and the region."

He said "any measure against Iran will not be left without a response and the invader will regret its act immediately."

The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously last month to slap sanctions on Iran to try to stop uranium enrichment that Western powers fear could lead to making bombs. Tehran insists its plans are peaceful and says it will continue enrichment.

Israel has refused to rule out pre-emptive military action against Iran along the lines of its 1981 air strike against an atomic reactor in Iraq, though many analysts believe Iran's nuclear facilities are too much for Israel to take on alone.

The newspaper said the Israeli plan envisaged conventional laser-guided bombs opening "tunnels" into the targets. Nuclear warheads would then be used fired into the plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce radioactive fallout.

IAF pilots have flown to Gibraltar in recent weeks to train for the 2,000 mile round-trip to the Iranian targets, the Sunday Times said, and three possible routes to Iran have been mapped out including one over Turkey.

However, it also quoted sources as saying a nuclear strike would only be used if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene. Disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, the paper added.

Washington has said military force remains an option while insisting that its priority is to reach a diplomatic solution.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Israel, widely believed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal, has said it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

Israel has long maintained a policy of nuclear ambiguity. Recent perceived slips by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have reinforced suspicions that Israel does have nuclear arms, but Jerusalem has stuck to its line that it will not be the first to introduce atomic weapons to the region.

The Sunday Times newspaper was the first to report on Israel's nuclear capabilities in 1986, based on leaked information by Mordechai Vanunu, a former employee at the Dimona research plant.

Following the expose, Vanunu was snatched by Israeli agents in Italy and returned to Israel, where served an 18-year prison sentence. He was released in April 2004.

[MarkG]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
So nice to see paiktis back, no?

i'm afraid i cant replace him

[Darius871]

Originally posted by GePap
I wouldn't call the Olmert government "millenarian fanatics"

I was referring to elements within the Iranian government.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Darius871


I was referring to elements within the Iranian government.

You mean the side not threatening to use nuclear weapons?

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris
Y'know, brown people aren't really smart enough to understand MAD. Therefore Iran will start a nuclear war.

This has got nothing to do with skin colour. For Iran, where the suicide cult (Basiji) is part of it's proud history (I posted an article before about waves of childern being used to clear minefields in the Iran-Iraq war) MAD does not apply.

Nowadays, Basiji are sent not into the desert, but rather into the laboratory. Basiji students are encouraged to enroll in technical-scientific disciplines. According to a spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard, the aim is to use the “technical factor” in order to augment “national security”.[34] But what is the implication of atomic weapons in the hands of those who interpret death in the battle field as a spiritual triumph?

In December 2001, then Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani broached this question. He explained that “the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything”. On the other hand, even in the case of a nuclear response on the part of Israel, it “will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.”[35] Rafsanjani thus spelled out the terms of a macabre cost-benefit analysis. It will not be possible to destroy Israel without suffering damage in turn. But for Islam the level of damage that Israel’s nuclear response could inflict is, nonetheless, bearable. Some hundred thousand or so additional martyrs for Islam – the price is not to high to pay.

Rafsanjani’s counting on a hundred thousand deaths might seem on first glance like a worst-case scenario. But it is not. For Rafsanjani is a representative of the “pragmatic” wing of the Iranian Revolution. In contrast to the apocalyptic wing of the Revolutionary Guard, who in 1988 wanted to pursue the war against Iraq no matter the costs, the “pragmatists” are concerned that any war should have a “worthwhile” outcome. What atomic weapons could mean in the hands of the “apocalyptic” faction is virtually unimaginable.

http://www.matthiaskuentzel.de/contents/ahmadinejads-world

[34] Iranfocus, 12. August 2005.

[35] Cited in Daniel Jonah Goldhagen, "Iran Bares ,Genocidal Intent’," in: The Sun, November 3, 2005 and MEMRI, Special Dispatch Series – No. 325, January 3, 2002.

[Drake Tungsten]

While I can see why a nutcase like Drake would think this a sound plan, for Israel to attempt it would be a disaster.

When did I say it was a sound plan? I just said it would be awesome, which it would be. I also said it isn't going to happen. I don't even think they're seriously considering it.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by GePap
You mean the side not threatening to use nuclear weapons?

Cort Haus' post makes my point better than I could have, but to the Basij and Pasdaran I'd also add the increasing influence of Hojjatieh since Khomeini's death.

And that goes without mentioning that the very premise of the Jafari sect is awaiting the messianic Mahdi's return amidst great tribulation, his defeat of ad-Dajjal, and the arrival of peace and plenty throughout the earth.

From that perspective I'd guess sprouting a few mushroom clouds would seem like a great way to bring on the Qiyamah. Besides, even if I'm wrong and the Mahdi won't actually show up 'til 2163, at least I'll get to go to paradise for being a martyr anyway so why not give it a shot? It's win-win! See you on the other side!

[Sprayber]

Originally posted by Cort Haus He explained that “the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything”. On the other hand, even in the case of a nuclear response on the part of Israel, it “will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.”[35] Rafsanjani thus spelled out the terms of a macabre cost-benefit analysis. It will not be possible to destroy Israel without suffering damage in turn. But for Islam the level of damage that Israel’s nuclear response could inflict is, nonetheless, bearable.

I wonder what the Palistinians would think about this being bearable.


I so miss the Soviets.