Want a PS3? Apparently there's tons.

[GePap]

Last night I saw a coworker of mine who is not a gaming type in any possible sense of the word playing with the Wii, and from what I heard of what was going on before I got there, he was rather engrossed by the boxing game earlier.

I think it was smart for Nintendo not to try to simply compete with a more and more powerful console to compete for the hardcored gamer market, but instead try to broaden its base demographic.

[Thue]

Looking at ebay, Xbox 360 systems seem to hover around retail prices ($400).

PS3 also seems to hover around US retail price (600$), or slightly more expensive than retail (there was one at 800, most at 6XX).

Wii (retail price $250) seems to sell for 350-400, and unlike xbox 360 and PS3 far most of the items put up for sale actually have bids and look like they will be sold.

[Asher]

One thing to keep in mind is the novelty aspect of the Wii's controls, especially among non-typical gamers.

I have no doubt that the Wii will sell quite a bit of hardware given its relative price to the competition and new control scheme, but software sales over time tell the tale -- and even the initial software sales for the Wii are not strong.

I'm again making my prediction that the Wii's novelty will wear down considerably over time, its hardware age will start to show, and software sales will be fairly low (both now and in the long term).

[asleepathewheel]

Asher-

What was your prediction for the DS?


Oh, and apparently Zelda: TP has sold 2m (wii version only) http://www.benjaminwillcock.com/week...1CB6CBA2C.html

[Asher]

I didn't predict anything for the DS. I don't care about handhelds, nor do I follow them. The market is pretty fundamentally different from the home console market.

Oh, and apparently Zelda: TP has sold 2m (wii version only) http://www.benjaminwillcock.com/wee...81CB6CBA2C.html

Please don't insult us by sourcing a fanboy's blog for sales figures...thanks.

They reference VGCharts, which is fine, so long as he reads it correctly.

The 2 million figure is:
1) Worldwide
2) For GCN + Wii combined
3) A "shipped" figure, not sold
4) Has not been substantiated from a credible source (last real figures showed 800,000 combined by Nov 31st)
5) He's comparing MS' sold numbers as of Nov 31st compared to "estimates" of Nintendo's numbers as of Christmas...

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher
I didn't predict anything for the DS. I don't care about handhelds, nor do I follow them. The market is pretty fundamentally different from the home console market.

No ****. I was just trying to gauge your predictive capabilities.


Oh, and I was curious, since there is very little that you will not post a strong opinion on, and this is what I found from you a couple of years ago. (note, that I too thought the ds would suck) posts 60, 61

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&goto=lastpost&threadid=114517

It's a stupid idea all around. Not only will they cost a fortune to make, they're trying to compete with Sony. Gaming devices will become something of a fashion accessory and a statement, much like the iPod craze today. If people have a choice between the console maker who tried a purple cube with a gay plumber running around spraying water everywhere, or the sleak black console and brand name with a game involving murdering prostitutes for money, which do you think most kids will go for?


Nintendo rapidly lost marketshare to Sony in the console world, and they're going to do it again in the handheld world.

While technically N did lose marketshare (obvious, since it was 100% before the psp), the DS has outsold the psp by a near 2-1 margin. A far cry (eh) from what you thought would happen.


You were wrong about the DS, why are you right about consoles? I think the Wii is proving that the hordes of casual gamers that bought the DS will buy the Wii. I expect the Wii to capture 35-40% of the market by the end of the decade.

They reference VGCharts, which is fine, so long as he reads it correctly.

The 2 million figure is:
2) For GCN + Wii combined
3) A "shipped" figure, not sold
4) Has not been substantiated from a credible source (last real figures showed 800,000 combined by Nov 31st)

2. According to vgcharts the figure is just for Wii, not GC.
3. Good point, so it would be a bit less than 2 mil, but I would expect close to it.
4. Well, whatever the number is, it should be substantiated fairly soon.

As to the rest of your points, they are irrelevant. My apologies for posting from a blog rather than that market information (that I found a minute ago)

[Asher]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Oh, and I was curious, since there is very little that you will not post a strong opinion on, and this is what I found from you a couple of years ago. (note, that I too thought the ds would suck) posts 60, 61

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&goto=lastpost&threadid=114517

While technically N did lose marketshare (obvious, since it was 100% before the psp), the DS has outsold the psp by a near 2-1 margin. A far cry (eh) from what you thought would happen.

So I predicted Nintendo would lose marketshare, they did. Not sure why this is a far cry from my prediction.

I did overestimate Sony's competence in many areas, admittedly.

On the other hand, I was **** straight-on w.r.t. to the Gamecube...and my PS3 predictions are holding true as well.

You were wrong about the DS, why are you right about consoles? I think the Wii is proving that the hordes of casual gamers that bought the DS will buy the Wii. I expect the Wii to capture 35-40% of the market by the end of the decade.

WAIT a minute...hordes of casual gamers are buying DSes? That is definitely not the case, at least in Canada...DS is being sold to the same audience it always is. It has good games, the PSP doesn't, so thus it's selling well.

2. According to vgcharts the figure is just for Wii, not GC.

Ah...but according to VGCharts, there is no Gamecube game. Since the software between the two is virtually identical, it's easy to see they folded the sales into one category. Either that or despite ~21 million consoles in the wild, gamecube software sales REALLY suck (something I predict to happen with the Wii also). Either way...

4. Well, whatever the number is, it should be substantiated fairly soon

Around mid-month, NPD releases sales figures for the prior month. I've found zero sources for this 2 million number for the Wii aside from the numbers pulled from VGCharts' asses.

Indications are 360 and Wii sales are very strong, while PS3 sales are weak. I'm willing to bet the 360 again outsells the Wii in December.

And, again, current sales have nothing to do with the longterm health of a platform. If you'll recall, the Gamecube got off to an even stronger start...and thanks to its low pricepoint it moved a lot of hardware. Software sales, however, were very low in general. I think this will be even more exacerbated on the Wii as more "casual" people will buy it initially and then have it collect dust as it has for most Gamecubes.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Asher
Ah...but according to VGCharts, there is no Gamecube game. Since the software between the two is virtually identical, it's easy to see they folded the sales into one category. Either that or despite ~21 million consoles in the wild, gamecube software sales REALLY suck (something I predict to happen with the Wii also). Either way...

I think it hasn't charted yet because it hasn't broken 1 mil sold, as of the last update.

AS for the rest, time will tell.

[Asher]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=158897930&play=1

Holiday sales (USA):

Xbox 360: ~2 million
Wii: ~1.8 million
PS3: ~750,000