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Hey! Saddam launched a blood-for-oil war! Who in their right mind would do such a thing?! 
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The Sunni's desire for oil is irrellevant. THey will either be dominated by the Shia or partioned out to nothing. Iran is a stronger patron then Syria. Appeasing the disgruntled Sunnis is pointless. Let the Shia take revenge. The Sunni's are the one's that caused the problems before and now.Originally posted by Ramo
The point is, of course, that Turkey's not going to hold back in invading a Kurdistan. Certainly not with the Israel/Lebanon precedent fresh in their minds.
The biggest cause for concern wrt a partition is that the Sunni Arabs would be shut out in terms of oil revenue, meaning that they would have every incentive to continue fighting.
And the Saudis aren't going to be happy about a SCIRI/Sadr-run state in the South.
Then there's the India-Pakistan/Yugoslavia style ethnic cleansing that would probably happen after partition.
The only actor that substantially comes out ahead in this situation would be Iran, and that's only until the almost inevitable regional war breaks out.
Partition would be an enormous cluster****. The only "solution" that I can see is to get all the regional actors on the table and have them prevent the situation from degenerating. And that really isn't much of a solution...Comment
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Everyday brings us closer to an all-out war between Iraqi Sunnis and Shia.
We should either get the hell out, or back the Shia--they have the manpower, the oil wealth and the most powerful ally. Plus al Qaeda (remember al Qaeda?) is Sunni- based.
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Who wins a war between egypt and iran?I need a foot massageComment
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So Russia was right?be freeComment
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Israel??Originally posted by Brachy-Pride
Who wins a war between egypt and iran?Comment
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Mobius was right all these yearsOriginally posted by Sn00py
So Russia was right?
I need a foot massageComment
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The point is in debate. Asserting that it's settled, when it's being debated is silly. Saying "of course" is the cherry on the sundaeOriginally posted by Ramo
The point is, of course, that Turkey's not going to hold back in invading a Kurdistan. Certainly not with the Israel/Lebanon precedent fresh in their minds.Comment
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Of course, TCO is correct.Comment
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Neither Egypt nor Iran are capable of actually fighting each other. Neither of them have that kind of power projection.Originally posted by Brachy-Pride
Who wins a war between egypt and iran?If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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Mais, oui!Originally posted by Zkribbler
Of course, TCO is correct.Comment
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I cross-posted with che (was originally responding to Dan) so it wasn't meant to sound quite that arrogant... But the idea that Kurdistan's going to be safe when all hell breaks loose elsewhere else is an absurd idea.
The point is in debate. Asserting that it's settled, when it's being debated is silly. Saying "of course" is the cherry on the sundae
The Shia gov't has an even stronger patron than Iran right now, and there's no end in sight. Complicating matters is that SCIRI and the Sadrists are probably gonna come to blows at some point.The Sunni's desire for oil is irrellevant. THey will either be dominated by the Shia or partioned out to nothing. Iran is a stronger patron then Syria. Appeasing the disgruntled Sunnis is pointless. Let the Shia take revenge. The Sunni's are the one's that caused the problems before and now.
It's not about "appeasing" the Sunnis, but to come up with a settlement where there isn't, you know, a ****load of violence. That won't happen if the Sunnis are left with a dirt-poor state."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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That point has long since past.Complicating matters is that SCIRI and the Sadrists are probably gonna come to blows at some point.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Relatively speaking, but it still would be devastating for everyone involved.As for a regional war, Iran would come ahead in the end"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Syria would not be the "sunni patron." The sunni patrons would be Jordan, Egypt, and primarily KSA.If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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