Kissinger says Iraq not winnable

[DanS]

On the other hand, here is the current policy of the administration. From the The Australian...

Iraq partition 'unacceptable' to US
From correspondents in Washington
November 16, 2006
PARTITION of Iraq along sectarian lines is "wholly unacceptable" to the United States, a senior State Department official said overnight, warning of the high cost in human suffering.

"Partition in Iraq could only be achieved at an expense of human suffering and bloodshed and forced dislocation that would be both profound and wholly unacceptable, I believe, to the American people," said Ambassador David Satterfield, the State Department's coordinator of Iraq policy.

"It is wholly unacceptable to this administration," he told a Senate hearing after being asked about partition as an option for stabilising Iraq.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Brachy-Pride
Turkey will never accept a kurdish state

If they are under the U.S.'s wing, which they are, then they have no choice. Odd, because both of the two leading Kurdish parties are communist (Maoists) and openly so.

[Ramo]

The point is, of course, that Turkey's not going to hold back in invading a Kurdistan. Certainly not with the Israel/Lebanon precedent fresh in their minds.

The biggest cause for concern wrt a partition is that the Sunni Arabs would be shut out in terms of oil revenue, meaning that they would have every incentive to continue fighting.

And the Saudis aren't going to be happy about a SCIRI/Sadr-run state in the South.

Then there's the India-Pakistan/Yugoslavia style ethnic cleansing that would probably happen after partition.

The only actor that substantially comes out ahead in this situation would be Iran, and that's only until the almost inevitable regional war breaks out.

Partition would be an enormous cluster****. The only "solution" that I can see is to get all the regional actors on the table and have them prevent the situation from degenerating. And that really isn't much of a solution...

[Kuciwalker]

The only actor that substantially comes out ahead in this situation would be Iran

That's the same for every scenario...

[Barnabas]

Do you people think it is partisan and mad tree hugging leftist to want Bush on a trial, or invading a country with no justification, and to make it worse, getting nothing good but problems out of that actions, merits getting him on a trial?

[Ramo]

That's the same for every scenario...

Actually it's not really the case in the partition scenario, since as I said, they'd probably be ****ed by the regional war.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Ramo
The point is, of course, that Turkey's not going to hold back in invading a Kurdistan. Certainly not with the Israel/Lebanon precedent fresh in their minds.

The difference is that the U.S. pushed Israel to attack Lebanon, not the other way around. We saw it as a way to slap down both Syria and Iran without actually having to attack them ourselves (though they did try and get Israel to expand the war to Syria). It wasn't until it became apparent that the Israelis were ****ing up beyond belief that the U.S. began to think that maybe it had gravely miscalculated and tried to put the leash back on Israel.

In the case of Kurdistan, it's the only thing that the Bush Admin can salvage as a success in this whole fiasco. They aren't about to let Turkey destroy it. Turkey has already been told in no uncertain terms to lay off, and it has.

[DanS]

BP: No, of course it doesn't merit it. Only loons think it does.

[Ramo]

che, with all the chaos in this scenario, I don't know how much of a position we'd be in to demand anything from Turkey. After all, the Turks have been raiding Iraqi Kurdistan just recently. Hell, Iran might even do it. There's a considerable Shia population in Kirkuk (who were settled their by Saddam), and Iran might want to defend their coreligionists from ethic cleansing (and get the oil around the city). And in the process, they get to crush nationalist fantasies out of their Kurdish population (who we, according to Sy Hersh, have been arming - so why not repay the favor?).

[Ramo]

It is interesting that Kissinger has come to this realization after Woodward reported that he's been such a strong cheerleader for the occupation at the White House.

[chequita guevara]

While Turkey has raided Kurdistan, a full out invasion is a different scenario. This won't be Cyprus. Kurdistan is occupied by the U.S., and as I mentioned before, the only success story the Administration has to offer. They aren't going to let the Turks destroy it, even if they will let them raid some PKK bases in the mountains.

Iran, on the other hand, though not really wishing an independent Kurdistan on the border, might be willing to ignore it considering it's going to be picking up a powerful satellite in Basra. Nor does Iran want to come to direct blows with the U.S. If they act against Kurdistan, they will do so through proxies.

[Elok]

Still, I'd like to thank Oerdin for finally quoting someone whose opinion is worth caring about in this, his latest political thread. This is a good sign, I think.

As for the thread topic, it's nice to see Kissinger saying what most of the western hemisphere has been thinking for months now.

[Zkribbler]

Sunni Cleric's Arrest Sought

Friday, the L.A. Times carried a front-page story re: the Iraqi government's issuance of an arrest warrant for the country's leading Sunni cleric: Harith Dhari. The Interior Minister said the charge against Dhari is inciting violence. The government claims Dhari is colluding with insurgents.

This arrest warrant, coupled with the government's failure to bring to justice those insurgents who show up in government uniforms to kidnap and kill Sunnis, will probably result in the Sunnis finally pulling out of the coalition.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Elok
Still, I'd like to thank Oerdin for finally quoting someone whose opinion is worth caring about

Who? Where?

[Elok]

Come on now, "legendary former secretary of state" is far more noteworthy than, say, "some douche writing for Rolling Stone." You might not agree with HK's advice, but surely it's worth reading?