The College Football Thread 2006

[Guynemer]

By the by, the answer is: those are the only 7 of the 19 teams that do NOT have a I-AA team on their schedule this year. Shameful.

[Drake Tungsten]

I don't see what's so shameful about it; the addition of the 12th game this year left a lot of teams scrambling for an extra home opponent. If the same number of I-AA teams are being scheduled in 5 years, however, then I'll be concerned.

[Guynemer]

The usual 7 people have voted, but this by no means limits any other ballots people want to offer:

1. Ohio State (7) 70
2. Michigan 57
3. West Virginia 47
4. Texas 34
4. Louisville 34
6. Tennessee 32
6. Cal 32
8. Florida 25
9. Notre Dame 20
10. USC 9

ARV: Auburn 8, LSU 7, Clemson 5, Arkansas 3, Rutgers 1, Pittsburgh 1.

[Guynemer]

It's not like this is the first time that most teams have 12 games, Drake, nor was it a big surprise; schools had plenty of time to schedule opponents. You'd best believe this trend will continue 5 years hence. In fact, at least one of the above teams (Ohio State) has scheduled a Div I-AA team for the next two years.

[Drake Tungsten]

It's not like this is the first time that most teams have 12 games, Drake

Uh, yes it is. Teams were limited to 11 regular-season games before this year.

nor was it a big surprise; schools had plenty of time to schedule opponents.

But they also have lots of competition and only a limited pool of schools to draw from, which leads many teams to schedule a I-AA team when Buffalo backs out on them...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/sports/ncaafootball/23college.html?ex=1313985600&en=6c9319bdf85298db&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

It's not like this is the first time that most teams have 12 games, Drake

Uh, yes it is. Teams were limited to 11 regular-season games before this year.

1995, 1998, 2002, 2003...

[Drake Tungsten]

I don't understand what you're hinting at.

[reismark]

THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 3

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking. For the full listing, check ESPN, which provides a more detailed breakdown than the "official" listing at FOX Sports.

1. Ohio State [1, 1, 2]
2. Michigan [2, 2, 1]
3. West Virginia [3, 3, 13] (+1)
4. Florida [7, 7, 4] (+2)
5. Louisville [5, 5, 9] (+3)
6. Auburn [6, 6, 7] (-1)
7. Texas [4, 4, 12]
8. Southern California [9, 9, 6] (-5)
9. Notre Dame [10, 10, 5]
10. California-Berkeley [11, 11, 3]
11. Tennessee [8, 8, 10]
12. Rutgers [14, 15, 8] (+2)
13. Arkansas [12, 12, 14]
14. Boise State [15, 14, 11] (+1)
15. Boston College [16, 16, 16] (+2)
16. Wisconsin [17, 17, 15] (+2)

You think a five-spot drop is bad for Southern California? It's about to get much, much worse. Their weaknesses have been consistently exposed by inferior teams for over a month, and after a recovery game at Stanford, they've got a month of hell coming up against Cal, Oregon, and Notre Dame. The only positive for them is that all three of those games are in the friendly confines of the Coliseum. Nevertheless, I can almost guarantee there will be at least one more loss and possibly two before it's over - Southern Cal is just not that good a team this year, and this past week was the exclamation point on the proof.

The other big dive of the week was taken by Clemson, who got smashed by Virginia Tech just one week after smashing Georgia Tech and after yours truly declared them among the elite. Well, maybe they're still among the elite in the ACC, which is proving itself week after week to be the weakest of the six major conferences - a welcome change from all the Big East bashing I've had to do in the past few years. Perhaps the bad karma the ACC generated in stealing Miami, BC and Virginia Tech from the Big East is finally catching up with them. (What's even better is that the only one of the three teams the ACC stole so that they could have their precious conference championship game - which ended up sending the league's fifth-best team to the BCS last year - is Boston College, which was the throw-in to the two teams they really wanted, Miami & Virginia Tech. Justice, indeed.)

GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK
West Virginia at Louisville (Thursday, 7:30 PM) is, of course, a must see, as the great Big East shakeout will finally begin. While the Mountaineers and the Cardinals have been the favorites all along... do not discredit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, also undefeated. They don't have much of a passing game, but with their running attack and defense, they can beat anyone on any given night. Missouri at Nebraska (Saturday, TBD) is a de-facto Big 12 North Division title game. With Kansas State having already lost to both, whoever wins will have a nearly insurmountable gap over the other two. Finally, Boston College at Wake Forest (Saturday, 7:00 PM) will be crucial to determining who will emerge from the ACC Atlantic Division, and the acid test for figuring out whether the Demon Deacons are truly for real.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Teams with an equal number of losses are considered to be in the same tier. (This means that a 3-0 record in conference play would be just as good as a 5-0 record and better than a 4-1 record for the purposes of projections.) Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths (for conferences that do not have title games) or bids to conference title games. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, or in the instance where the two teams projected to meet for a conference title have the same record in conference play, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

MAJOR CONFERENCES
ACC: Georgia Tech (def. Maryland)
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan
Big 12: Texas (def. Missouri)
Pac-10: California-Berkeley
SEC: Arkansas (def. Florida)

OTHER BIDS
Non-BCS Conference Auto Bid: Boise State (WAC; #14 higher than ACC champion)
Other Auto Bids: Ohio State (Big Ten; #1), Florida (SEC; #4 with no SEC rep in title game)
At-Large Entries: Notre Dame (Independent; #9)

First question I'm sure will come up: Maryland in the ACC title game? Yup, they've got the edge at the moment, given that none of the ACC Atlantic Division leaders have played each other yet. (Divisional record is the second tiebreaker, and right now, Maryland's 2-0 trumps BC's 2-1 and Wake's 1-1.) Whether or not this will last in the coming weeks is, of course, up to date, but you guys know the rule with the projections by now.

Here's an interesting one to wrap your head around: In the Big Ten, the tiebreaker that comes after the head-to-head matchup and the overall record (assuming no head-to-head matchup between the tied teams) is the teams' recent history of inclusion in the BCS, with the team that was in the BCS most recently being eliminated first. So what does this mean?, you ask. Essentially, this means that by the book, I have to project Michigan as the Big Ten conference winner and Ohio State as the at-large entry until they actually play each other, just because Ohio State's been in the BCS more recently than Michigan. One of those quirks that can only happen in college football, LOL.

I made this mistake last week but I'm correcting it with this week's entry: According to the new BCS by-laws, Boise State would actually get an automatic bid at #14 at this point. Of course, if they make it to #12 or higher, their bid would be guaranteed irregardless of the circumstances, but at #13-16, should a major conference champion finish behind them in the rankings (and given the overall weakness of the ACC this year, that's a distinct possibility) the bid would also be guaranteed. With the prestige factor sure to get Notre Dame into the BCS if they're eligible, there's a lot riding on Louisville this coming week to knock off West Virginia, because even at #5, they're getting squeezed out right now.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
National Championship Game: Ohio State v. Michigan
Rose Bowl: California-Berkeley v. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech v. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas v. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas v. West Virginia

Big Ten auto-entry Ohio State & Big Ten champion Michigan are automatically placed into the National Championship Game due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. Pac-10 champion California-Berkeley is placed into the Rose Bowl, SEC champion Arkansas is placed into the Sugar Bowl, ACC champion Georgia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl, and Big 12 champion Texas is placed into the Fiesta Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins.

Since the Rose Bowl loses one of its conference champions to the title game, it gets to replace that team before the other bowls make their selections. It chooses independent at-large Notre Dame to be its second representative. (The Rose Bowl, according to BCS by-laws, gets top priority over all BCS games other than the National Championship Game in filling its vacancies.)

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's proximity to the National Championship Game in scheduling, with games scheduled nearer to the Championship Game receiving higher priority. Based on this, the BCS has established the following priority order for this year's bowls:

1. Sugar Bowl
2. Orange Bowl
3. Fiesta Bowl

The new BCS by-laws do not impose restrictions on selecting teams for final allocations in the vein like "conference champions cannot be listed last" as in previous years. Hence, it is prudent to presume that the remaining selections will be made in order of BCS rankings (with exceptions made where needed to avoid matching teams from the same conference against each other). Fortunately, this is not needed here: Big East champion West Virginia is selected by the Sugar Bowl, SEC auto-entry Florida is selected by the Orange Bowl, and WAC auto-entry Boise State is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.

Note that for obvious reasons, no shifts would be made to change the National Championship Game from matching the #1 and #2 ranked teams, even if (as projected) it involves the meeting of two teams from the same conference.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Hey Reis, you still think Rutgers is going to knock off Louisville? Hell, I'm just hoping they can wrap this up against UConn

[MRT144]

Originally posted by reismark
THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 3


You think a five-spot drop is bad for Southern California? It's about to get much, much worse. Their weaknesses have been consistently exposed by inferior teams for over a month, and after a recovery game at Stanford, they've got a month of hell coming up against Cal, Oregon, and Notre Dame. The only positive for them is that all three of those games are in the friendly confines of the Coliseum. Nevertheless, I can almost guarantee there will be at least one more loss and possibly two before it's over - Southern Cal is just not that good a team this year, and this past week was the exclamation point on the proof.

This is why DanS ranking of #4 is offensive to the collective intelligence of all football fans everywhere.

[Tuberski]

Originally posted by MRT144


This is why DanS ranking of #4 is offensive to the collective intelligence of all football fans everywhere.

Somebody finding someone else's opinion about football offensive makes us real football fans laugh and laugh and laugh.



It's a game, treat it as such.

ACK!

[Eroberer]

I actually like the BCS rankings this week. I think it's crazy how both the coaches poll and the AP poll are so similar. The BCS, though, shows a huge drop from Michigan to WVU. Now, I really like this WVU team, but the BCS numbers pretty much tell the story.

[reismark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Hey Reis, you still think Rutgers is going to knock off Louisville?

I saw nothing tonight to change my opinion that Rutgers has a good chance to knock off Louisville, not that they would. Just encouraging you to have faith in your team, that's all.

[MRT144]

Originally posted by Tuberski


Somebody finding someone else's opinion about football offensive makes us real football fans laugh and laugh and laugh.



It's a game, treat it as such.

ACK!

real football fans? opposed to the ones that are made out of cardboard and do what?

anyway, part of the game is finding fault with another's opinion, and being offended is the height of that. I should be considered a hero among football fans.

[pchang]

Stop jinxing Cal

BCS has them ranked appropriately. We need to win out to deserve a BCS bowl bid and the offense has been unreliable recently.