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At least if the election were held today though we still have a month to go. Slate has a great article on this showing the breakdown of the Senate races where the numbers are as follows:
Noncompetitive Seats (meaning landslide for one side): Dems 27 Reps 40
Safe Seats (meaning pretty big leads): Dems 18 Reps 8
Leans one way seats (Slight lead): Dems 4 Reps 1
Tossup: 2 seats
That means it is likely to be 50 seats for dems and 48 for Republicans with 2 seats unknown at this time. If the dems take one or both they win control while if the Reps take both seats then they tie.
Here's the Slate article:
Noncompetitive Seats (meaning landslide for one side): Dems 27 Reps 40
Safe Seats (meaning pretty big leads): Dems 18 Reps 8
Leans one way seats (Slight lead): Dems 4 Reps 1
Tossup: 2 seats
That means it is likely to be 50 seats for dems and 48 for Republicans with 2 seats unknown at this time. If the dems take one or both they win control while if the Reps take both seats then they tie.
Here's the Slate article:
Election Scorecard
Where the midterm elections stand today.
By Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin
Updated Thursday, Oct. 12, 2006, at 6:33 PM ET
Which party would control the U.S. Senate if the election were held today? The numbers below show the leaders based on averages of the most recent polls in each state. The "momentum shift" meter indicates statistically meaningful trends in recent polls of competitive races. How did we get these numbers and what do they mean?
Senate Race Summary for Oct. 12:
The race for the U.S. Senate is looking closer than ever, thanks to a surge for Bob Menendez in New Jersey. Two new surveys out in New Jersey today from Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports show Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez leading Republican Thomas Kean Jr. by margins of four and five percentage points, respectively. Menendez has now run ahead of Kean by at least three points on five of the last six surveys. His four-point lead (45 percent to 41 percent) on our last-five-poll average moves New Jersey to the "lean Democrat" column.
So, as of today, the race for the Senate looks like a dead heat, with 49 seats leaning or held by Democrats and 49 seats leaning or help by Republicans. The two remaining tossups are Tennessee and Missouri.
Speaking of Tennessee, a new Rasmussen poll out late yesterday shows Democrat Harold Ford a statistically insignificant two points ahead of Republican Bob Corker (48 percent to 46 percent). That's the opposite of the SurveyUSA result we noted yesterday, showing Corker ahead by two. Although Ford leads narrowly on our last-five-poll average (46.6 percent to 44.2 percent), his margin remains close enough to classify Tennessee as a tossup.
Where the midterm elections stand today.
By Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin
Updated Thursday, Oct. 12, 2006, at 6:33 PM ET
Which party would control the U.S. Senate if the election were held today? The numbers below show the leaders based on averages of the most recent polls in each state. The "momentum shift" meter indicates statistically meaningful trends in recent polls of competitive races. How did we get these numbers and what do they mean?
Senate Race Summary for Oct. 12:
The race for the U.S. Senate is looking closer than ever, thanks to a surge for Bob Menendez in New Jersey. Two new surveys out in New Jersey today from Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports show Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez leading Republican Thomas Kean Jr. by margins of four and five percentage points, respectively. Menendez has now run ahead of Kean by at least three points on five of the last six surveys. His four-point lead (45 percent to 41 percent) on our last-five-poll average moves New Jersey to the "lean Democrat" column.
So, as of today, the race for the Senate looks like a dead heat, with 49 seats leaning or held by Democrats and 49 seats leaning or help by Republicans. The two remaining tossups are Tennessee and Missouri.
Speaking of Tennessee, a new Rasmussen poll out late yesterday shows Democrat Harold Ford a statistically insignificant two points ahead of Republican Bob Corker (48 percent to 46 percent). That's the opposite of the SurveyUSA result we noted yesterday, showing Corker ahead by two. Although Ford leads narrowly on our last-five-poll average (46.6 percent to 44.2 percent), his margin remains close enough to classify Tennessee as a tossup.
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