Where Have the Hurricanes Gone?

[Berzerker]

O RLY...

Oh, you deny temperatures are generally colder at higher latitudes than the equatorial region, especially during ice advances? How in the hell did you and chegitz get confused by that? Btw, that aint a latitudinal temperature gradient. A latitudinal temperature gradient is identified along a particular latitude (like the 20th lat inversion), the cold air coming down the Rockies and the warm moist air coming up from the gulf to create our tornado season cross many latitudes.

it seems logical the worst storms and most activity would occur during ice advances because there is a greater contrast between the higher latitudes and the equatorial region.

You turned that into a "latitudinal temperature gradient", not me, Odiot

[chequita guevara]

I noes! I disappeared for TWO WHOLE DAYS!!!!!!

In other news, scientists said an El niño is forming, which could help keep more hurricanes from forming.

[Berzerker]

more than 3 days, and your last post only mentions your
confusion over some term Odin used

Do they have a record linking El Ninos to Atlantic hurricanes (or lack thereof)?

[Ramo]

Berz, a latitudinal temperature gradient is a temperature change in the latitudinal direction. The gradient is the mathematical operator that specifies the direction of greatest increase of a scalar field (in cartesian coordinates, it's x_id/dxⁱ. Therefore the qualifier of the gradient (whether it be longitudinal, latitudinal, or radial) indicates the direction of the change.

Anyways, the correlation between power dissipation of tropical storms with sea surface temperatures is pretty damn solid. Global warming causes increasing hurricane frequency. Not every year, and not in every area, but on average.

[BlackCat]

Ramo beat me to it - Berz, you seems not to have a clue about how tropical storms are created. Their forming mechanisms are diffent from northern/southern hemisphere storms wich is created due to pressure differences.

[Solly]

Originally posted by Sava
This is a great thread.

Thanks. And the quiet season continues..

[chequita guevara]

Tropical Storm Ivan just hit Newfoundland. And the Pacific continues to get slammed.

[Solly]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Tropical Storm Ivan just hit Newfoundland. And the Pacific continues to get slammed.

My understanding was that the Pacific is quieter than usual, actually.

[chequita guevara]

That has not been what I've been led to believe, especialy with a rather large number of people getting killed this year. The Eastern Pacific has also had a rather active year.

However, the fundimental misunderstanding that people on both sides make is that adding more energy to the system necessarily means more storms and more powerful storms. That is but one possible outcome.

Weather is a chaotic system, so when you add more energy, you can get strange results. A bifurcation graph shows what happens when you add to a chaotic system. For xn + 1 = rxn(1 − xn)


A you increase y, x increases until you hit a certain level, when it splits, and contues along until you hit parts where the result becomes wildly indeterminate. We don't know where we are along the graph or even what formula to use. All we know is that we're adding more energy.

[chequita guevara]

In any event, we still have two months of hurricane season in the Atlantic, so don't jinx it.

[Ramo]

Incidentally, that's known as the logistic map.

Neat fact:
Take the r values of each bifurcation, label them r_0, r_1, etc. The ratio of r_(n+2) - r(n+1) to r_(n+1) - r_n converges to a certain number.

Now, note that the state space map (A_(n+1) as a function of A_n) is unimodal, i.e. it goes up and then down (since it's quadratic). If you look at any other state space map that's unimodal (say, it could be Gaussian) and take the same ratio, it converges to precisely the same number, known as the Feigenbaum delta. You can do a similar thing for vertical scaling, known as the Feigenbaum alpha.

In actual physical systems, RLD circuits for instance exhibit this phenomenon. Hurricanes though are pretty different.

[TCO]

Are you JohnA?

[chequita guevara]

BTW, an el niño is developing extremely rapidly, which is what's put the cabash on this Atlanatic hurricane season. Look for flooding in the SouthWest though.

[TCO]

excuses, excuses. Little fellow traveller. Go eat some eggs at Heartland and then report for self-examination.

[chequita guevara]

Oh look, an ignorent vet.