Poly 2 Fantasy Football - the Draft

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
QB's don't catch a lot of passes.

Unless they play for the Chargers

[SlowwHand]

Be watching a QB at Georgia, via Highland Park H.S. in Dallas. A freshman this year, the guy will be awesome. Matthew Stafford.

Trivia for the day.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Points per reception tend to increase RBs going early, and discourages taking a top WR early, since there's a lot less of a boost from the top WRs due to TDs and particularly yardage not counting as much ... thus the top RBs, especially pass catching ones, are key

I'd disagree on there not being as much of a boost from a top WR. In effect, it makes the top WRs even more seperate from the the average WR. Yards and TDs don't always have the level of seperation you'd expect from a top tier WR and second tier one, but catches will do that. And the amount of that 'drop' is what makes a top pick a top pick.

In essense, it makes the second tier RBs (anyone outside the Top 3 really) not worth as much as they could have been. Though it does make pass catching RBs worth more than normally would be.

[snoopy369]

... which makes there more 2nd tier RBs (which are generally considered worth more than a 1st tier WR). Moreover, it means the drop from a Rudi Johnson to a Ruben Droughns is a lot more than the drop from a Chad Johnson to a Andre Johnson.

Last year, the top WR caught 103 passes. The #25 receiver by catches caught... 69 passes. That's 34 passes (34 points), or 2 points/game between the #1 wr and the #25 (which would be the 2nd WR for one of the last teams to get a WR). That's a 33% drop.

Compare that to the yardage difference. 1563 for the top WR versus 917 for the #25 (by yards receiving). That's a 41.3% drop.

Compare that to the RBs.

The #1 RB by catches caught 70 passes, compared to 31 for the #25 ... 39 different, which is greater than the difference between WRs. Again, just over 2 pts/game difference, which isn't a huge difference, but it's a 2 pt/game difference positive in favor of the higher RBs. Compared to the negative difference related to the higher WRs...

[vlad]

01.01) Albert Speer - Tiki Barber - RB - NYG
01.02) Zopperoni - Larry Johnson - RB - KC
01.03) Berzerker - Shaun Alexander RB - SEA
01.04) Stuie - Peyton Manning QB - IND
01.05) SlowwHand - LaDainian Tomlinson RB - SD
01.06) Japher - Clinton Portis RB - WAS (BAPAY)
01.07) Spaced Cowboy - Rudi Johnson RB - CIN
01.08) Donegeal - Edgerrin James RB - Ari
01.09) Snoopy369 - Stephen Jackson RB-StL
01.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Ronnie Brown RB - MIA
01.11) Vlad-LaMont Jordan RB - OAK(well of course a Raider)
01.12) Jaguar
01.13) Tuberski
01.14) Reismark

[Jaguar]

01.01) Albert Speer - Tiki Barber - RB - NYG
01.02) Zopperoni - Larry Johnson - RB - KC
01.03) Berzerker - Shaun Alexander RB - SEA
01.04) Stuie - Peyton Manning QB - IND
01.05) SlowwHand - LaDainian Tomlinson RB - SD
01.06) Japher - Clinton Portis RB - WAS
01.07) Spaced Cowboy - Rudi Johnson RB - CIN
01.08) Donegeal - Edgerrin James RB - ARI
01.09) Snoopy369 - Stephen Jackson RB-STL
01.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Ronnie Brown RB - MIA
01.11) Vlad - LaMont Jordan RB - OAK
01.12) Jaguar - Brian Westbrook RB - PHI
01.13) Tuberski
01.14) Reismark

[SlowwHand]

What did I tell you? Dark=Vlad. Damn night stalker. "D

[-Jrabbit]

Well, he is in Vancouver...

[SlowwHand]

Canadian night stalker. All the worse.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
... which makes there more 2nd tier RBs (which are generally considered worth more than a 1st tier WR). Moreover, it means the drop from a Rudi Johnson to a Ruben Droughns is a lot more than the drop from a Chad Johnson to a Andre Johnson.

Last year, the top WR caught 103 passes. The #25 receiver by catches caught... 69 passes. That's 34 passes (34 points), or 2 points/game between the #1 wr and the #25 (which would be the 2nd WR for one of the last teams to get a WR). That's a 33% drop.

Compare that to the yardage difference. 1563 for the top WR versus 917 for the #25 (by yards receiving). That's a 41.3% drop.

Compare that to the RBs.

The #1 RB by catches caught 70 passes, compared to 31 for the #25 ... 39 different, which is greater than the difference between WRs. Again, just over 2 pts/game difference, which isn't a huge difference, but it's a 2 pt/game difference positive in favor of the higher RBs. Compared to the negative difference related to the higher WRs...

Here is the problem... the top pass catching RB isn't necessarily the top yardage RB, or even in the top tier of yardage RBs (see Westbrook, Brian). On the other hand, the top recieving yard/TD WRs generally have higher pass catches.

Undoubtably a RB which catches more balls and runs for a lot of yards (see Tomlinson, LaDanian) is far more valuable under this scoring. However, some second tier RBs who don't catch a lot of balls are brought down a bit while RBs who do catch a balls are brought up, to establish less of a drop among RBs.

What it does is lessen the gap among 2nd tier RBs (and brings some up that may be lower), but keeps or widens the gap among WRs.

[snoopy369]

It doesn't widen the gap between WRs though ... that was the point of all of those math things up there The PERCENT dropoff is more important than the numerical dropoff; sure, WRs get more points in this scoring system, but QBs get a huge ton'o points, and you don't see them going early in the draft, excepting the uberstars...

Between the #1 and the #25 WR, the pass reception # drops 33%. The pass yard # drops 41.3%. Thus, any system that devalues pass yards in exchange for pass receptions decreases the dropoff from the top WRs, and encourages players to choose not to draft WRs early on, as the later WRs are worth more as a percentage of the value of the earlier WRs.

Certainly, not every single RB has pass receptions. However, the top tier (4-5) RBs certainly all do, and several of the already second tier ones (Westbrook, ie) do, which increases THEIR relative value. Beyond the top 15-20 RBs, basically nobody has significant pass receptions (excepting a few that can't really play anyway, kevin faulk like RBs that won't be starters anyway). Thus, RB dropoff increases, while WR dropoff decreases.

Anyway, feel free to draft WRs to your heart's content... I'm just saying that in this league, the fact that we have 10/11 picks as RBs isn't a surprise, and is probably as it should be. Eventually the RB dropoff will be less than the WR dropoff... but not yet.

[Tuberski]

01.01) Albert Speer - Tiki Barber - RB - NYG
01.02) Zopperoni - Larry Johnson - RB - KC
01.03) Berzerker - Shaun Alexander RB - SEA
01.04) Stuie - Peyton Manning QB - IND
01.05) SlowwHand - LaDainian Tomlinson RB - SD
01.06) Japher - Clinton Portis RB - WAS
01.07) Spaced Cowboy - Rudi Johnson RB - CIN
01.08) Donegeal - Edgerrin James RB - ARI
01.09) Snoopy369 - Stephen Jackson RB-STL
01.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Ronnie Brown RB - MIA
01.11) Vlad - LaMont Jordan RB - OAK
01.12) Jaguar - Brian Westbrook RB - PHI
01.13) Tuberski -Carnel Williams RB- TB
01.14) Reismark

ACK!

[Imran Siddiqui]

It doesn't widen the gap between WRs though

Relatively it does...

Certainly, not every single RB has pass receptions. However, the top tier (4-5) RBs certainly all do, and several of the already second tier ones (Westbrook, ie) do, which increases THEIR relative value. Beyond the top 15-20 RBs, basically nobody has significant pass receptions (excepting a few that can't really play anyway, kevin faulk like RBs that won't be starters anyway). Thus, RB dropoff increases, while WR dropoff decreases.

Really? Shaun Alexander and his 15 receptions strike fear into you? What about Larry Johnson and his 33? Portis and his 30? etc.

What it does do is make some RBs really good (LT, Barber), and brings up some 2nd tier RBs who can catch to close the gap among higher 2nd tier RBs and 1st tier RBs.

That's why so many RBs in a row is surprising... of course that run does make it imperative for the next guy to get an RB so he isn't locked out by the 3rd round, so maybe it's just a 'multipy on itself' thing.

[SlowwHand]

What about Tiki Barber that all, except me, gave Speer grief over?

If you want to get technical, Manning shouldn't have gone before 6 in any league, but he did in both leagues here.

[Jaguar]

Our scoring is QB-friendly enough to make Manning a genuine first-rounder. Most fantasy scoring nerfs QBs to the point of silliness.

I'd call him a late first-rounder, though. Not because he's not got great value over replacement level, but because you want to be able to nip one of the second tier RBs with a pick at the top of the second round if you take him.