Poly 2 Fantasy Football - the Draft

[SlowwHand]

6th is still a first rounder.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
What about Tiki Barber that all, except me, gave Speer grief over?

And as well we should. Why? Because LaDanian Tomlinson does all that Barber does, but better. It's like picking Tom Brady over Peyton Manning. Solid choice, no doubt, but you get mocked for not picking the better one.

[Al B. Sure!]

of course that run does make it imperative for the next guy to get an RB so he isn't locked out by the 3rd round, so maybe it's just a 'multipy on itself' thing.

yeah... it's a game theory thing... i'm sure LT, Alexander, L. Johnson, Barber, and (maybe) Portis would have all gone real early anyway but Rudi Johnson? Edgerrin James? Stephen Jackson? Lamont Jordan? etc.?

That's just a run for the best availible RB left! Stuie probably only broke the mold because he saw an opportunity to take the best QB on the board. Had he waited til the second round, he'd probably have been stuck with shakier talents like McNabb or Bulger.

[Jaguar]

How about you just pick, sir? Aren't you picking for reis?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yeah, I'm researching (*ahem* damn Tubs)

[Al B. Sure!]

Because LaDanian Tomlinson does all that Barber does, but better. It's like picking Tom Brady over Peyton Manning. Solid choice, no doubt, but you get mocked for not picking the better one.

yeah but Ladanian Tomlinson in Phil River's offence... we've already seen Tiki have two great years with the younger Manning at QB. I think Tiki is a surer bet than Tomlinson for this season.

[snoopy369]

30-33 receptions is 1/3 of the total of the top WRs last year. That's not half bad for a guy who has plenty of points already; and the point is, the #25 RB gets like 5, so it's an extra 20-30 points for the top guys (at least!).

Shaun and LJ don't need the extra points, anyway; they'll go at the start regardless. It's the Westbrooks of the world that get the extra points, and thus are pushed ahead of the top few WRs.

Again, you're not reading my post, imran ... where I show, mathematically, how catches are more of a moderating factor than receiving yards. Oh, and that's not even considering TOUCHDOWNS, which are FAR more random than catches. Introducing catches brings the mid-tier WRs up quite a ways, as you introduce a significant point factor that is much more even than yards or TDs.

A top WR (Steve Smith roughly) will score maybe 12 TDs, get 1563 yds, and 103 catches. In a normal 10 yds per, no catches, 6pt/td league, that's 156+72 points, or 228. In a 20 yards per, catches, 6/td, that's 78+72+103, or 253. A bit higher, right?
Compare that to Donte Stallworth, who is a good example of a 20-25 ranked WR [2nd WR]. In a normal 10 yds/no catch league, he gets 70/945/7, which is 94+42 or 136. In a catch league, he gets 47+70+42, or 159.

In the no-catch league, Stallworth (136/228) is 59.6% of Smith. In a catch league, Stallworth (159/253) is 62.8% of Smith. You can easily see that in a no-catch league, there's a bit more incentive to get an early WR (Smith, or similar) as to getting two late WRs (Stallworth) than in a catch league.

The question for the RBs, though, is not 'does shaun go after the first WR'. I hope. The question is, are their RBs that are bumped above the top WR, and is that number higher than the number bumped below him?

I doubt anyone is bumped down except possibly Cadillac Williams, who probably shows enough upside to stay up there regardless of his low catch number. However, Brian Westbrook, Ronnie Brown, and possibly even Lamont Jordan (who might be above the top WR anyway) are bumped above him.

[Al B. Sure!]

it's interesting how the other league has the exact same first round picks but in slightly different order...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Alright... hard to pick among the various RBs still available, though I picked McGahee:

01.01) Albert Speer - Tiki Barber - RB - NYG
01.02) Zopperoni - Larry Johnson - RB - KC
01.03) Berzerker - Shaun Alexander RB - SEA
01.04) Stuie - Peyton Manning QB - IND
01.05) SlowwHand - LaDainian Tomlinson RB - SD
01.06) Japher - Clinton Portis RB - WAS
01.07) Spaced Cowboy - Rudi Johnson RB - CIN
01.08) Donegeal - Edgerrin James RB - ARI
01.09) Snoopy369 - Stephen Jackson RB-STL
01.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Ronnie Brown RB - MIA
01.11) Vlad - LaMont Jordan RB - OAK
01.12) Jaguar - Brian Westbrook RB - PHI
01.13) Tuberski - Carnel Williams RB- TB
01.14) Reismark - Willis McGahee RB - BUF

02.14) Reismark - Steve Smith WR - CAR

[Jaguar]

Smith at this point is a fine pick. With these league settings, bucking the trend now is good.

[snoopy369]

I agree

[Al B. Sure!]

it seems silly to project a fantasy draft but Terrel Owens and Chad Johnson going next seems likely to me... now for a WR trend

i'm hoping we can get through this round before I have to work on Friday... with my crazy work hours, yall bastards might BAPAY my last pick 2nd round and first pick third round!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
30-33 receptions is 1/3 of the total of the top WRs last year. That's not half bad for a guy who has plenty of points already; and the point is, the #25 RB gets like 5, so it's an extra 20-30 points for the top guys (at least!).

The #25 RB according to Yahoo expert rankings had 41 receptions last year. I think that elevates him higher than in a non-points per reception league.

Again, you're not reading my post, imran ... where I show, mathematically, how catches are more of a moderating factor than receiving yards. Oh, and that's not even considering TOUCHDOWNS, which are FAR more random than catches. Introducing catches brings the mid-tier WRs up quite a ways, as you introduce a significant point factor that is much more even than yards or TDs.

I think it is you who are not reading mine. Points per reception bring up RBs who can catch more than most RBs who can't. Therefore, even though it brings up some lower WRs, relatively the top WRs benefit far more than the top RBs do. It doesn't matter that catches are more of a moderating factor than yards or TDs for WRs. What matters is that the moderating factor for RBs is far more impressive... and as talking to Japher has taught me, the fantasy points seperating the 5-15 (or even 20) RBs is NOT that much at all.

Relatively, 2 tier RBs lose their great advantage over lower 2nd tier or 3rd tier RBs who can catch. Making good RBs less scarce (which is the main reason they usually are drafted by most in the 1st round)

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Albert Speer
yeah but Ladanian Tomlinson in Phil River's offence... we've already seen Tiki have two great years with the younger Manning at QB. I think Tiki is a surer bet than Tomlinson for this season.

Tomlinson's best years (arguable) have come when Brees was crap. He gets a lot more passes thrown to him when the QB is not experienced and tends to throw the ball off to his quick drop reciever.

[Tuberski]

01.01) Albert Speer - Tiki Barber - RB - NYG
01.02) Zopperoni - Larry Johnson - RB - KC
01.03) Berzerker - Shaun Alexander RB - SEA
01.04) Stuie - Peyton Manning QB - IND
01.05) SlowwHand - LaDainian Tomlinson RB - SD
01.06) Japher - Clinton Portis RB - WAS
01.07) Spaced Cowboy - Rudi Johnson RB - CIN
01.08) Donegeal - Edgerrin James RB - ARI
01.09) Snoopy369 - Stephen Jackson RB-STL
01.10) Koyaanisqatsi - Ronnie Brown RB - MIA
01.11) Vlad - LaMont Jordan RB - OAK
01.12) Jaguar - Brian Westbrook RB - PHI
01.13) Tuberski - Carnel Williams RB- TB
01.14) Reismark - Willis McGahee RB - BUF

02.14) Reismark - Steve Smith WR - CAR
02.13)Tuberski - Larry Fitzgerald WR-ARI
02.12)Jaguar
02.11)Vlad
02.10)Koyaanisqatsi
02.09)Snoopy369
02.08)Donegeal
02.07)Spaced Cowboy
02.06)Japher
02.05)Slowwhand
02.04)Stuie
02.03)Berzerker
02.02)Zopperoni
02.01)Albert Speer

Man if Fitzgerald is hurt, Im screwed in 2 leagues.

ACK!