North Korea missile showdown!

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Who's blackmailing whom? What's DPRK demanding from the international community (read: US and Japan) again?

If China is so unworried about regional threats like DPRK then why are they in the midst of one of the most massive military buildups ever? Have you suddenly determined that Taiwan is a threat? It can't be Japan...they don't even have the offensive capability to hit North Korea. Or is China scared that the US will after nearly 60 years of Chinese weakness suddenly attack? Have you guys decided to go after India again? What gives? Could it be that your leaders are actually scarred ****less by what the moron in control of DPRK might actually do?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Most of the leaders we call insane are quite rational. They just go against "our" interests, and thus they must be mad.

LotM, what if the DPRK launched a missile and nobody cared? Would it still then be a destabilizing event? It is only destabilizing because everyone's getting worked up into a tizzy, which is exactly what the DPRK wants.

Well, lets take a look. They made all kinds of announcements about their nuclear program, and they didnt get too much of a tizzy - the US refused unilaterl talks, accepted only multilateral talks, the participants havent given them what they wanted, so they walked away, and so now theyve tried the missile launch. The logical conclusion is that avoiding a tizzy doesnt lead them to give up, it only leads to MORE aggressive behavior.

Even so, we're NOT striking at them militarily, or doing other "tizzy" kinds of things. All we're doing is pushing forward diplomacy, in coordination with both our allies in the region, and other concerned parties. And, yes, we are going to the UNSC. Where there is a natural interchange between more decisive approaches (led by Japan, with her Western allies being supportive) and more conciliatory approaches suggested by China. The final resolution will probably split the difference.

I really dont beleive that a UNSC resolution condemning them was the "tizzy" that NKor had in mind. It seems more likely that what they wanted was more pour boires. Mainly for the US to drop financial sanctions (made in response to counterfeiting and drug smuggling) that seem to be inflicting pain on the regime. Failing that, maybe a military attack would have united at least the military behind Kim. I cant really see that UN resolutions or sanctions will unite the military behind Kim.

In any case the flow of diplomacy is good for the US. Weve solidified further our relationship with Japan. We've established one more front where we are working closely with UK AND France. And South Korea, despite its overriding concern for stability on the peninsula, and its wariness about Japan, is finally getting fed up with North Korea and is drifting, albeit subtly, back in the direction of the US and its allies. And China is realizing that IT has to act as a responsibile power in the region.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


It seems that India is much more vulnerable to economic measures than DPRK. For example, just imagine what would happen if the US and EU pass measures against using Indian IT services. No call centres, nothing. That's an enormous blow in itself.

Why doesnt China impose economic sactions on India then? Oh wait, its China that opposes economic sanctions on ANYONE, from the genocidaires in Sudan, to the tyrants in Burma, to Iran, etc.

But here someone from China wants the US to sanction India for accquiring nuclear weapons, weapons they developed largely in response to China's own nuclear buildup. Wow, what a great deal for China that would be!! Either India gives and no longer has nukes to deter China, OR India is weakened economically, and the US - India relationship is ruined.


We spent several years trying to put the geniee back in the bottle wrt Indian nukes. And, at the same time, Pakistani nukes. IIRC, we did so with little or no support from the Peoples Republic of China. Well its too late now. India is effectively accepted as a nuclear power, and behaved responsibily.


In any case India is by no means as dependent on the US as Nkor is on China.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger

Who's blackmailing whom? What's DPRK demanding from the international community (read: US and Japan) again?

They want us to drop the financial sanctions that are hurting them.

also

"Closing off another possible avenue for diplomacy, the North pulled out Thursday from high-level talks with South Korea after Seoul refused to discuss any aid while Pyongyang abstains from the nuclear negotiations"

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


Who?

Didn't you speak of realism just not that long ago? Have you ever considered the consequences of DPRK imploding? My guess is you haven't, given your responses in this thread so far.

Theres no particular evidence that the status quo will lead to a soft landing for North Korea. It may just be a question of when, and under what circumstances, Nkor implodes.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Theres no particular evidence that the status quo will lead to a soft landing for North Korea. It may just be a question of when, and under what circumstances, Nkor implodes.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Flip McWho
You're forgetting theres a lot of corporate interest in outsourcing to India. North Korea has nothing to offer anyone so is ripe for the bullying.

Well said.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Saras
Hello? Japan is in an economic recovery unseen for 20 years? Or do you mean some other, non-economic problems?

Japan has just started recovering (moved to a non-zero prime rate), but you probably realise that a) there is still a very long way for them to go and b) the more than a decade long recession had moved the political compass a lot to the right.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by PLATO
If China is so unworried about regional threats like DPRK then why are they in the midst of one of the most massive military buildups ever?

What kind of "massive military buildup" are you talking about?

AFAIK, the number of military personnel has been consistently reduced for the past decade or so.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Why doesnt China impose economic sactions on India then? Oh wait, its China that opposes economic sanctions on ANYONE, from the genocidaires in Sudan, to the tyrants in Burma, to Iran, etc.

Because embargoes doesn't work? The only partial exception is South Africa, but then there was already an internal movement to end apartheid. It doesn't work on Cuba. It didn't work on Iraq.

Originally posted by lord of the mark
But here someone from China wants the US to sanction India for accquiring nuclear weapons, weapons they developed largely in response to China's own nuclear buildup. Wow, what a great deal for China that would be!! Either India gives and no longer has nukes to deter China, OR India is weakened economically, and the US - India relationship is ruined.

If you react to a country testing missiles, you should react to all countries testing missiles the same way. Hypocrisy doesn't earn you any friends.

Originally posted by lord of the mark
We spent several years trying to put the geniee back in the bottle wrt Indian nukes.

I can't remember the US has ever done much wrt India's attempts in acquiring nuclear weapons and developing missiles.

Originally posted by lord of the mark
In any case India is by no means as dependent on the US as Nkor is on China.

Had Iraq ever been dependent on the US?

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
They want us to drop the financial sanctions that are hurting them.

DPRK says they will gladly return to the Six Side Talk if the US stops sanctioning a Macao bank accused of laundering money for the country.

Besides, there's no difference between the US embargoing a country to get it stop doing something and the DPRK testing missiles to get the US stop doing something.

So if you claim the DPRK is blackmailing you have to apply the same label to the US.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


DPRK says they will gladly return to the Six Side Talk if the US stops sanctioning a Macao bank accused of laundering money for the country.

Besides, there's no difference between the US embargoing a country to get it stop doing something and the DPRK testing missiles to get the US stop doing something.

So if you claim the DPRK is blackmailing you have to apply the same label to the US.

are you insane? NK has a vast US currency counterfeiting operation. The US absolutely cannot consider any action that weakens much less eliminates the very limited tools it has to mitigate the effects of an operation on such scale.

IMHO, such massive state funded counterfeit operations should be regarded as an act of war. NK is lucky the US is limiting itself to blocking the money laundering side of the operation.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


DPRK says they will gladly return to the Six Side Talk if the US stops sanctioning a Macao bank accused of laundering money for the country.

Besides, there's no difference between the US embargoing a country to get it stop doing something and the DPRK testing missiles to get the US stop doing something.

So if you claim the DPRK is blackmailing you have to apply the same label to the US.

No. There's a huge difference. The US is a world power. DPRK is not.

Obviously, this sounds like 'bullying', putting it this way... but yet, this is how the world works. Beyond that, it's the right way for the world to work. Larger powers are more stable, and generally have the interest (in the modern day) of world peace and stability in mind; smaller nations, such as DPRK, may well not have this in mind.

Further, missile testing is a militant act, not dissimilar to having 'war games' off the coast of another country - essentially showing that the country has the military power to hurt another country. Economic sanctions are a world-accepted method of discouraging 'bad' behavior, and are not in any way similar to use of military force.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
It didn't work on Iraq.

It didn't? Where are the WMD then?

I can't remember the US has ever done much wrt India's attempts in acquiring nuclear weapons and developing missiles.

http://library.findlaw.com/1998/May/13/127144.html

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


What kind of "massive military buildup" are you talking about?

AFAIK, the number of military personnel has been consistently reduced for the past decade or so.

Google has 6,780,000 articles on "Chinese military buildup". I invite you to learn the truth by reading some of them.

Of course, you might need to go to a country where google isn't censored by the government...