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How silly is Iran's claim to an army of 50,000+ suicide bombers?
During the past days, Iran claimed to have at its disposal an army of 40,000 suicide bombers, obviously created for an asymmetric fight against the west (source later). I have a feeling like this is not only exaggerated, but it is rather even a complete bluff.
Said claim obviously sparks fears. Everyone knows that the defense forces of Iran are no match for US air attacks, or even Israeli ones. The widely held opinion is also that any military action against Iran would probably be air attacks only and no ground invasion, since Iraq shows how bad an idea that would be. As it seems, the scope of action for Iran to deter the west from attacking is rather limited. The main argument they can employ is terrorism. We're told that an attack on Iran would result in increased violence in Iraq, as well as increased hostilities against Israel on behalf of the Hizbollah. Repeated statements have been made that an army of up to 52,000 (latest number) volunteers are ready to carry out suicide attacks. These claims must seem very powerful against us since terrorist action is what we fear most from conventionally weaker enemies. But how serious are these claims?
I won't go into the Iran-Hizbollah links, I'll leave this field to others for now. What I'm now concerned with is the now created image in our heads of massive Iranian support for terrorist action in Iraq. This aspect brings up some questions, some concerning direct support, others indirect one:
1. How many suicide bombers so far have been citizens of Iran?
2. How capable is Iran of raising thousands and thousands of suicide bombers among its own population (maybe also: how willing to sacrifice its own population)?
3. Of 50,000+ volunteers signing papers or appearing in suicide bombing dresses at military parades, how many are really willing to carry out such a mission? Is it reasonable to assume that any Muslim would be willing to carry out a suicide attack mission?
4. As far as support for groups in Iraq is concerned, how capable - economicly and logistically - is Iran to support terrorist groups inside Iraq, how willing politically? Wouldn't they lose all international support if they answered a limited conventional attack on them with terrorism against a civilian population of a different country, and a Muslim one at that?
I'm curious about the answer to 1. Questions 2 and 3 go together pretty well, and the answer is probably this: it's all a big bluff. They dressed up some folks in funny uniforms and made them sign some volunteer papers. But the mentality behind a suicide attack is not something you can import from one day to the next and convince your own people about. Those who do it in Israel and Iraq are mostly trained by certain fanatic groups who belong to weird branches of Islam religiously. Also, the population of Iran isn't as desperate as that of the West Bank. Q4 is interesting, but not to the core point of this thread.
Said claim obviously sparks fears. Everyone knows that the defense forces of Iran are no match for US air attacks, or even Israeli ones. The widely held opinion is also that any military action against Iran would probably be air attacks only and no ground invasion, since Iraq shows how bad an idea that would be. As it seems, the scope of action for Iran to deter the west from attacking is rather limited. The main argument they can employ is terrorism. We're told that an attack on Iran would result in increased violence in Iraq, as well as increased hostilities against Israel on behalf of the Hizbollah. Repeated statements have been made that an army of up to 52,000 (latest number) volunteers are ready to carry out suicide attacks. These claims must seem very powerful against us since terrorist action is what we fear most from conventionally weaker enemies. But how serious are these claims?
I won't go into the Iran-Hizbollah links, I'll leave this field to others for now. What I'm now concerned with is the now created image in our heads of massive Iranian support for terrorist action in Iraq. This aspect brings up some questions, some concerning direct support, others indirect one:
1. How many suicide bombers so far have been citizens of Iran?
2. How capable is Iran of raising thousands and thousands of suicide bombers among its own population (maybe also: how willing to sacrifice its own population)?
3. Of 50,000+ volunteers signing papers or appearing in suicide bombing dresses at military parades, how many are really willing to carry out such a mission? Is it reasonable to assume that any Muslim would be willing to carry out a suicide attack mission?
4. As far as support for groups in Iraq is concerned, how capable - economicly and logistically - is Iran to support terrorist groups inside Iraq, how willing politically? Wouldn't they lose all international support if they answered a limited conventional attack on them with terrorism against a civilian population of a different country, and a Muslim one at that?
I'm curious about the answer to 1. Questions 2 and 3 go together pretty well, and the answer is probably this: it's all a big bluff. They dressed up some folks in funny uniforms and made them sign some volunteer papers. But the mentality behind a suicide attack is not something you can import from one day to the next and convince your own people about. Those who do it in Israel and Iraq are mostly trained by certain fanatic groups who belong to weird branches of Islam religiously. Also, the population of Iran isn't as desperate as that of the West Bank. Q4 is interesting, but not to the core point of this thread.
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