Down with the evil Gas lords. (yes, i am brave enough to post another from myspace)

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Kaak
oooh john, so you are saying that there is actually less than 6 billion, possibly even a lot less, refined, and exxon refines almost a billion of it's own oil. And that helps your point how?

Thanks

No, I'm saying that you have been quoting an (admittedly exaggerated) figure of ONE BILLION BARRELS. You then point to a list that has over 6 billion potential barrels of refined product a day, and ... what? Exxon has 1 billion, the US has 6, that means the other players have 5 billion. Last time I looked,

5>1

Can one of you math guys check that one out for me? Maybe run some regression analysis or something that will prove that 5 is, in fact, greater than 1.

Thanks!

Edit: Upon further review of the list...

Anyway, Kaak, you have proved to us that Exxon has, at most, 1.8 billion barrels of potential refining capacity a day, out of 13.552 billion barrels of potential capacity only counting those refineries that can produce 100,000 bb/d equivalent (the top 61 refiners). Again, maybe somebody will want to check my math, but this shows that Exxon has less than 13.2% of the refining capacity on that list.

Again, business-wise, this is not a "controlling" marketshare position, Kaak. Don't you ever run the numbers? You'd think after getting PWNED like you have you would be more careful than shoving some bull**** top-5 list out here and crying "See???"

[Flubber]

Originally posted by JohnT


You're the guy who is not Kaak's dad. Poseur.

Right-- well I'm finished lunch so back to work-- maybe on a royalty agreement


Oh kaak ???? Do you still assert that royalties don't vary by price??

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Kaak
Really Imran? Like computers? When technology gets better, production costs can go down. surprised you didn't know that :-p

Making excuses for the fact that gas is one of the very few (if not only) commodities

You evidently don't even know what "commodity" means in this context.

[GhengisFarb™]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Petroleum is exactly the same thing as it was in 1950.

Originally posted by Zkribbler
Yes, but are refining methods?

Thanks to the Enviro nazis and the EPA, pretty much, yeah.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Gas prices are set locally.

If so, why are the gas prices in the US exploding, and the profits of the gas companies are also exploding?

It's not like the demand for gas is experiencing a massive increase in the US right now (unlike the global demand for oil). And usually, in a non-expanding market where the costs of production increase (aka crude oil), the companies are taking a hit. This is not what we're witnessing.

I see four possible reasons for that:
- gas companies are making all their current money on oil extraction schemes, and are making fewer profits than before in their gas-retail schemes (data about this would be welcome)
- gas is a dysfunctional market (oligopoly or whatever)
- the market price of gas was largely understated in the US prior to the current craze.
- gas prices are set globally.

While I wouldn't be surprised that there is a global factor to gas prices (many countries have insufficient refining abilities, so the western refinieries have things to sell there), I would be suprised that it alone explains the hike we're witnessing.

The profits for the Majors' gas-related activities might be freefalling, but I somehow doubt, though I don't have data. But if they don't, it does seem to mean that the local oligopolies are using the oil prices as an excuse to hike the gas prices, and to abuse the market's lack of elasticity.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kaak
Really Imran? Like computers? When technology gets better, production costs can go down. surprised you didn't know that :-p

Had to respond


and when the stuff that is highest quality and easiest to flow is produced, oil companies go after the more remote, more challenging stuff-- like say oilsands or stuff thats under 2000m of ocean. This means costs are higher-- I'm surprised you didn't know that

[Arrian]

I'm sure some gains have been made in efficiency, and that would probably explain why the inflation-adjusted cost of gasoline is lower than it used to be, not higher.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Originally posted by GhengisFarb

Thanks to the Enviro nazis and the EPA, pretty much, yeah.

Que? From what I've seen, the EPA is mainly concerned with things like, oh, dumping tons upon tons of petroleum sludge in unlined pits over the course of decades and then playing dumb about the resulting groundwater contamination.

What did the EPA and "enviro nazis" do that restricted advances in refining techniques?

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
Yes, but are refining methods?

I'd imagine it is also cheaper to produce a serving of Coke, but I wonder if the price has gone down for that good .

Also add in taxes that weren't in existance back then.

[KrazyHorse]

The major factor is that while equivalent extraction costs have gone down, the supply of easy-to-drill oil has diminished considerably.

The same is true of many non-replenishable commodities. which is why many of them cost more than they used to.

[KrazyHorse]

And usually, in a non-expanding market where the costs of production increase (aka crude oil), the companies are taking a hit

The oil market did expand, spiffor. Global demand increased by 10% over the last couple of years.

[Kidlicious]

I don't want to look for it in this thread, but did anyone post how much of the US refining market Exxon/Mobil has. How is it segmented?

[Kaak]

Spiffor: Demand isn't what making price go up. Prices are rising due to concern about what might happen, as they have been doing for a long time. Speculation causes futures to rise, which causes the market to rise.

this round of hikes is because of fears that we will go to war with iran, and something about nigeria, even though the ammount of oil it produces is somewhat trivial. Several of the guys in this thread just want you to believe that supply and demand are the only thing causing gas prices to go up, but rumor and speculation has as much to do with it. Pretty good deal for the oil companies when the supply is never actually disrupted

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I don't want to look for it in this thread, but did anyone post how much of the US refining market Exxon/Mobil has. How is it segmented?

I just did a quick and dirty based on Kaak's list and XOM has less than 13% of the refining capacity on it.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
The oil market did expand, spiffor. Global demand increased by 10% over the last couple of years.

Yep, and I'm not wondering about oil prices here, but about gas prices (one would have to be a moron to think that there's a conspiracy between the rise of oil prices).

I'm not sure the demand for gas in the US has increased remotely as dramatically. And unless the gas market is global (like the oil market is), I'd imagine there is somehting fishy about the explosion of gas prices in localized areas where the demans didn't rise that much.