Chavez steals millions from foreign companies.

[Arrian]

Here is another figure:

Poverty and Unemployment Down significantly in Venezuela in 2005

Friday, Oct 14, 2005 Print format
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By: Venezuelanalysis.com


Caracas, Venezuela, October 14, 2005—Venezuela’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) says that poverty will drop by 8% points by the end of 2005, relative to the previous year. Similarly, unemployment dropped 0.6% points, from 12.1% in August, to 11.5% in September of this year.

INE director Elias Eljuri made the announcement yesterday, saying that Venezuela’s poverty rate is expected to drop to 35% by the end of the year, down from 47% for 2004.

link: http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1785

Even if they're right, a major improvement would drop poverty to 35% of the population!

-Arrian

[Arrian]

One year swings mean little.

That being said, if the second link I posted is accurate, an 8% drop is excellent... the question is whether it's sustainable.

-Arrian

[Velociryx]

Nahhh, one year isn't a clear endorsement of the big red poster boy.

We need to pick an area he's obviously interested in (the poor, for example, as evidenced by his copious donations TO the poor) and see how he does.

I like it, but it needs to be career spanning. Let's put him thru his paces, and see if he lives up to the adoration being heaped upon him.

-=Vel=-

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Velociryx
Nahhh, one year isn't a clear endorsement of the big red poster boy.

We're talking about economics here. A lot of things will happen that are out of his control anyway. One year is just as good as two or ten for that matter.

[Arrian]

So betting that Venezuela's poverty rate will be lower than the United States' is... well, just looking for a way to lose.

You're far better off leaving the US (a developed, powerful country with a diverse economy) out of it and concentrating on Venezuela's progress (or lack thereof) against its current status.

-Arrian

[Velociryx]

I agree with Arrian.

He's your poster boy.

He's got all the answers.

It's DEFINITELY gonna work this time.

So let's see the goods.

Before his time in office, let's say he takes whatever the current poverty rate is and cuts it in half.

Big goal, but he'll have the rest of his life, I'm sure, so.....

-=Vel=-

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Arrian
So betting that Venezuela's poverty rate will be lower than the United States' is... well, just looking for a way to lose.

You're far better off leaving the US (a developed, powerful country with a diverse economy) out of it and concentrating on Venezuela's progress (or lack thereof) against its current status.

-Arrian

I think we should compare to another country since the whole world economy will be a big factor here, but I don't care really. 5 years or whatever is fine, I just don't think it's much fun to have a bet that no one will win until 5 years from now.

[Velociryx]

We're talking about economics here. A lot of things will happen that are out of his control anyway. One year is just as good as two or ten for that matter.

And this is ENTIRELY incorrect.

You could put Mr. Ed, the talking horse in charge of a country and the poverty rate MIGHT decrease.

This would, however, be a relatively poor endorsement of a particular set of policy decisions.

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

Yes Kid, but the POINT of the bet is that we're putting your boy to the test.

And trust me, unless I've "crossed over," I'll be here to collect. Or rub it in. Or whatever.



-=Vel=-

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Kidicious


I think we should compare to another country since the whole world economy will be a big factor here, but I don't care really. 5 years or whatever is fine, I just don't think it's much fun to have a bet that no one will win until 5 years from now.

Well yeah, that's the problem with duration. If you choose a limited time frame, the results are meaningless. If you want meaningful results, you gotta wait... and by then most likely you won't be posting at 'poly anymore.

-Arrian

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Velociryx
This would, however, be a relatively poor endorsement of a particular set of policy decisions.

-=Vel=-

Well we don't manipulate the data stretch the truth like capitalists, because we have plenty of good endorsements.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Arrian


Well yeah, that's the problem with duration. If you choose a limited time frame, the results are meaningless. If you want meaningful results, you gotta wait... and by then most likely you won't be posting at 'poly anymore.

-Arrian

You realize that forcasts get less accurate with time duration don't you?

[Velociryx]

Well, we will sure find out, won't we! Arrian duly logged the current poverty level in your boy's country, so let's see how he does!

-=Vel=-

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Velociryx
Yes Kid, but the POINT of the bet is that we're putting your boy to the test.

And trust me, unless I've "crossed over," I'll be here to collect. Or rub it in. Or whatever.



-=Vel=-

No you won't. You will lose and then you will never show your face here again. And I don't want that to happen.

[Velociryx]

Dude, in case you missed the PREMISE of the bet, we're not looking at a forecast, we're looking to see how Chavez does.

He's your miracle man, remember?

we don't want to know what he's forecasted to do, we are interested in finding out how he does.

you picked the index. poverty.

now we're watching it.

got it?

-=Vel=-