Hillary Clinton is officially a moron.

[MrFun]

Republican voters will never vote for Guiliani -- he's to the left of the pope, making him, in Republican voters' eyes, a dangerous, radical extremist.

[Ramo]

Absolutely not. Hilary will be fighting being tarred as a liberal, and fighting for blue-collar white guy "Reagan Democrat" votes. Plus, two senator on one ticket is a very, very bad idea, as 2004 illustrated, because it makes it harder to run against the GOP as the party of out-of-touch Washington. Obama wouldn't play, even if he had more experience. Obvious choices:

Gov. Mark Warner - moderate, from a red state in the South, not a Senator.

Gov. Bill Richardson - moderate, from a battleground state in the West, Hispanic, served in the last Clinton Administration.

Gov. Tom Vilsack - moderate, from a battleground state on the Plains, well-respected within the party.

My money's on Richardson. The Dems aren't going to play very well in the South with Hillary at the top of the ticket, no matter what. But the Dems could actually play in the West, particularly by emphasizing environmental and privacy issues, where they're much more credible than the GOP. Vilsack would be the fallback if the wisdom was that a woman+hispanic ticket would lose more white male votes than it would gain Hispanic votes.

I definitely wouldn't bet on Vilsack. His coattails are weak enough to give GOP Rep. Nussle a strong chance at succeeding him as the swing state's Governor next year (in contrast to Warner/Kaine). Also, courting the chair of the DLC won't win Hillary any friends among the Dem base, already somewhat skeptical about her; while Vilsack's probably no more moderate than the other three (especially Warner), that's going to be a strong symbolic repudication, and one that Reagan Democrats won't particularly care for (they are socially conservative, economically liberal, and the DLC is generally the converse).

Warner and Richardson (and possibly Schweitzer) would be more likely Veep candidates.

Don't be suprised to see her pick Bayh or even Clark (she and Billy were close to him in '04).

[Vince278]

Originally posted by DaShi
Richardson has some liability. This is a guy who has private meetings with Castro and Kim Jong-il. Republicans will definitely try to use that on the national security platform that both sides will be running on.

Many Dems still have a "Joan Baez" complex. For them at least, meeting Fidel and Kim would be a plus.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ramo
Don't be suprised to see her pick Bayh or even Clark (she and Billy were close to him in '04).

Bayh is hard to see because of the 2-senator problem (though he's also been a governor). But Clark would be a very, very interesting choice for veep.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Clark would be a good VP choice for Hillary. Some national security cred on the ticket.

[Tiamat]

who do you think the republicans are going to run? Does Hillary have any type of chance?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Tiamat
who do you think the republicans are going to run? Does Hillary have any type of chance?

If its McCain, Hillary is TOAST. If the right cannibalizes itself and someone like Frist (but not actually Frist himself, because he's damaged goods) wins out, Hillary has a pretty good shot.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
If its McCain, Hillary is TOAST.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Vince278


Many Dems still have a "Joan Baez" complex. For them at least, meeting Fidel and Kim would be a plus.

They'll vote for Hillary anyway. However, he might keep her left enough for them as she keeps moving toward the center.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


If its McCain, Hillary is TOAST. If the right cannibalizes itself and someone like Frist (but not actually Frist himself, because he's damaged goods) wins out, Hillary has a pretty good shot.

Probably true. But,

1) I'm still struck by how easy it was for Bush to beat McCain in 200, even though Bush was even then clearly a brainless doofus with no real accomplishments to his name. The GOP establishment doesn't like McCain, and the GOP base -- especially the Christian Right -- doesn't like McCain. Even if he got the nomination, I'd imagine he'd come to the convention very bloodied adn pretty much broke.

2) Hillary's candidacy and McCain's are likely to be part of a fluid system, rather than things that develop separately. It may well be that, if McCain emerges as a frontrunner in the GOP, Dems will view Hillary as less electable and switch allegiences to someone like Warner or Bayh, who I think could beat McCain.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Bayh?! Are you nuts? McCain would carve Bayh for dinner and feed Bayh his own testicles. Warner has a shot, though.

As for point 1, didn't you follow the 2000 primaries? The big money guys got behind Bush, which meant he was getting that nomination. The big money looks to be lining up behind McCain (whether it all materializes, we'll see). They'll get him through, and probably relatively painless. The Republicans are well organized like that (or, if you want, sheep).

The Christian Right will be pacified by the fact that McCain IS against abortion... and that the opponent may be Hillary, so by God, they need to beat her no matter what. If Hillary loses, we'll see. But if Hillary wins the nomination, there is NO WAY the Christian Right stays home.

[Ramo]

Allen still looks to be the most likely nominee, though he was in a much better position several months ago. There's an even an off-chance that he'll be beaten by James Webb this fall. Romney also looks very good right now.

I'm inclined to say that McCain would be unbeatable in the general, but the race would be considerably tighter than the polls currently make it out to be.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Bayh?! Are you nuts? McCain would carve Bayh for dinner and feed Bayh his own testicles. Warner has a shot, though.

As for point 1, didn't you follow the 2000 primaries? The big money guys got behind Bush, which meant he was getting that nomination. The big money looks to be lining up behind McCain (whether it all materializes, we'll see). They'll get him through, and probably relatively painless. The Republicans are well organized like that (or, if you want, sheep).

Yeah, Bayh's pretty weak. But McCain is nowhere near as strong as people make out. To use the new favorite GOP insult, he's been quite the flip-flopper these past 6 years, trying to be his own man and a good team player simultaneously. And he has spent a fair amount of time as a Bush apologist, which is very unlikely to help him when Bush leaves office as teh most unpopular president since Carter.

As for the 2000 primary, that was just my point: the big money hasn't lined up behind McCain yet, in part because I think they really want another candidate. If Frist hadn't screwed himself so well, they'd have one. But i'll wait until I actually see money behind McCain before I think of him as the obvious candidate.

I think the Dems will ahve a long, hard slog in 2008, made worse by their own inability to get their act together. But I do think they have a shot, even with Hillary at the head of the ticket, and I do think even Mccain is beatable. Of course, the election is still 30 months away, so this is all a bit like talking about whether we'll be builing ranch homes or split-levels once we put suburbs on Mars.

[Ramo]

There's a chance that associating with Bush money men (like the recent Terry Nelson hire) could be fatal for McCain in a couple years, with all this Abramoff dirt about to come out.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly


I'm confused. Are you insulting Clinton and Gore. or insulting communists?

I think it may actually be a trifecta.