Israeli election thread

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
Elections Poll Summary:

Out of 120 seats:

Kadima: 30 seats
Labor: 21 seats
Israel Our Home: 13 seats
Shas: 12 seats
Likud: 10 seats
National Union – NRP: 9 seats
United Torah Judaism: 6 seats
Pensioners' party: 7 seats
Meretz: 5 seats
Arab parties: 7 seats


Meaning:
Next government will likely be formed of center-left leaning parties, and religious parties:

Kadima + Labor + Pensioners + Meretz + Shas + United Torah

= Mapai + Mapam + old pre-nutbag Mafdal. Except old Mafdal had more integrity than Shas, IIUC. But OTOH Mapam economics was truely loony, not just defense of the welfare state. In any case the goal is for BenGurion/Olmert to have a free hand in security.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Eli
This hitkansut thingie is a disaster. First, because the radical groups among the settlers learned their lesson. In the next round, they wont be crying, they will be shooting. Case in point, Amona.

And the second reason is that we have Katyushas falling on Ashkelon. The media made a nice job of playing it down during election day but when the next one hits it will be major headlines.

Thats only one element in the larger question of pressure on Hamas.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Eli
They're the secular far right. Most of their votes came from ex-Soviet Union immigrants. They are far right, but not fanatics, more of the familiar secular nationalist type.

Yeah, but their far rightism seems to be expressed mainly by harsh statements about arabs. They dont seem to be committed to a Greater Israel ideology - IE they may not be unwilling to follow Kadima on some kind of "convergence" plan on the West Bank.

If I read it right the only votes for Greater Israel were the votes for Likud, and NU-Mafdal - only 19 votes altogether. A watershed in Israeli history.

[Last Conformist]

You mean 19 MKs.

[Eli]

No way. No one voted for Liberman thinking he will support a withdrawal. It's Liberman after all, his party was part of the NU. Greater Israel got 32 seats.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Eli
No way. No one voted for Liberman thinking he will support a withdrawal. It's Liberman after all, his party was part of the NU. Greater Israel got 32 seats.

what exactly is the point of pushing Arab villages from Israel to Palestine, if theres not going to be a withdrawl and a Pal state? Doesnt make sense.

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by Last Conformist I'm not familiar with these Yisrael Beitenu (or however you spell it) folks; my newspaper describe them as "ultra-right", which sounds rather sinister. Someone give a quick rundown?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset

[Eli]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


what exactly is the point of pushing Arab villages from Israel to Palestine, if theres not going to be a withdrawl and a Pal state? Doesnt make sense.

There is a very large difference between population exchanges as a result of a final peace treaty and an unilateral withdrawal.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Eli


There is a very large difference between population exchanges as a result of a final peace treaty and an unilateral withdrawal.

a pal state on the west bank as part of a final peace treaty doesnt seem to really be consistent with Greater Israel either.

[Eli]

It isnt. But for all intents and purposes, for the next few years, Liberman is firmly in the Greater Israel camp.

[Sirotnikov]

Agree with Eli.

[muxec]

Students in my university showed high participation rate. Many voted Mafdal, Likud, Kadima, Mertz. It's Bar-Ilan university so I guess TAU students voted for Avoda and Meretz.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
what exactly is the point of pushing Arab villages from Israel to Palestine, if theres not going to be a withdrawl and a Pal state? Doesnt make sense.

Reminds me of what I implied earlier in the thread about changing demographics on purpose. I didn't think Israel would be doing it though.

[lord of the mark]

final wasnt final

the soldiers' votes is now in.

Kadima, Likud, and Meretz have each picked up a seat, at the expense of one each from the Arab parties, Israel Beitenu, and Shas.

Likud is now tied for 3rd largest party, instead of being 5th largest.

Kadima now has 29 MKs. Together with Labour, Pensioners, and Meretz, thats 61 MKs = a simple majority for the Zionist pro-seperation parties.

[Eli]

Together with Labour, Pensioners, and Meretz, thats 61 MKs = a simple majority for the Zionist pro-seperation parties.

This is going to end with tears.