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One week to go.
Kadima is still leading, looks like 38 to 40 MKs.
Kadima is still leading, looks like 38 to 40 MKs.
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"A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber -
They will be getting a considerable amount of sympathy votes on account of Sharon's condition. I figured they would even back when he was hospitalized. While sympathy votes are usually not the best basis for gaining seats, in this case it seems fair to me. -
How does the projections now compare to before Sharon took ill?Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012
When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - RahComment
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I would imagine they are in the order of ~5 seats lower. But I believe they're still much higher than could be expected for such a newly formed party whose leader is suddenly gone, had it not been for the special circumstances - and Sharon's personal standing and position in the political landscape.
But it may all be guesswork, I don't follow Israeli politics too closely.Comment
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Shame about Shinui imploding like that...Stop Quoting BenComment
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Sympathy votes will gain you seats but won't help you hold them. Good luck.
"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country. My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man." -- JFK Inaugural, 1961
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is not a vice." -- Barry Goldwater, 1964 GOP Nomination acceptance speech (not George W. Bush 40 years later...)
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2008 Presidential Candidate (for what its worth)Comment
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i dont have all the numbers to hand, but my sense is that Kadima support has been holding pretty firm, from when Sharon led them, to right after the stroke, to now. My impresssion (Israelis want to confirm this?) is that their support is less about personality and sympathy then some have said - theres a really large block of Israelis who like their approach to security and find Bibi too hawkish, and Peretz either too inexperienced or too dovish."A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin BuberComment
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Here is an analysis of the poll history.
Kadima continued to rise for a while after Sharon's stroke, IIRC, but started to decline after the Hamas win, so it's pretty much in the same situation it was a few months ago."I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie AllenComment
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Shame about Shinui imploding like that...
It ain't just imploding for no reason. They got 15 seats, delivered nothing of their promises, even with their show of power at the ballot. So, the entire parliamentary leadership pretty much slipped away from the party, after being ousted by the party, and are running as another (failing) party.Comment
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Is Kadima + Likud now stronger than Likud was before the split?Comment
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Yes. Likud pre split was 40, now Kadima+Likud are about 55. Most of the extra seats came from Shinui and some from Labor.Originally posted by Ecthy
Is Kadima + Likud now stronger than Likud was before the split?"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master" - Commissioner Pravin Lal.Comment
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Would Likud alone get the same amount of votes if it wasn't for the split?
Sometimes the splitting fo camps leads to decrease in votes for the whoel camp. At other times, it leads to an increase. Is this a matter so complex that the human mind cannot grasp it?Comment
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Sometimes the splitting fo camps leads to decrease in votes for the whoel camp. At other times, it leads to an increase. Is this a matter so complex that the human mind cannot grasp it?
Maybe not. If the Likud had split to two parties with the same ideology, I guess throwing **** on each other would've decreased their total power. But Kadima and Likud have different agendas. Olmert is practically calling for a unilateral withdrawal from most of the territories, while those who stayed in the Likud opposed even the much less controversial and easy to accept Gaza withdrawal.
Basically, the Likud remained right wing while Kadima is center and even somewhat center-left."Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master" - Commissioner Pravin Lal.Comment
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no, its only when the coalition negotiations begin that it becomes too complex for the human mind to graspOriginally posted by Ecthy
Would Likud alone get the same amount of votes if it wasn't for the split?
Sometimes the splitting fo camps leads to decrease in votes for the whoel camp. At other times, it leads to an increase. Is this a matter so complex that the human mind cannot grasp it?
"A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin BuberComment
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