Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

[JohnT]

Actually, my bad: I found the original post in another thread. You mentioned nothing about drilling, just "oil companies" eating alive the "smaller players":

The industry is supposedly in crisis, yet look at the profits. There's no real competition. When smaller players try to offer lower prices, they'll quickly get eaten alive. There's an obvious trust between the giants. I'm glad I'm not an American consumer.

I then made a list of small oil companies here in Knoxville (which is NOT an oil town) in refutation, showing that the small companies were alive and well despite your vision of destructive competition and wasteful mergers. I even went to the effort to detail which sector of the petroleum industry they were in.

You didn't limit your comment to drillers, so I didn't need limit my response to them.

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=142825&perpage=1000

You also didn't reply... until now.

[RGBVideo]

Glad we got this settled

I then made a list of small oil companies here in Knoxville (which is NOT an oil town) in refutation, showing that the small companies were alive and well despite your vision of destructive competition and wasteful mergers. I even went to the effort to detail which sector of the petroleum industry they were in.

I thought it was obvious that I was talking about drilling companies precisely because the negatives I was complaining about have never been part of neither retail or refinery (I mean producing chemicals, plastic etc. from oil or selling them) part of the industry.

Also note the post I quoted in my own post:

Originally posted by Verto
Every company sells their product at a profit, or at least tries to. People need to stop this bull**** about making oil companies sell oil at cheaper prices, or building more refineries, and all that, and come to terms with the fact that excessive consumption is what put them in their current situation. If we hadn't allowed ourselves to continue growing more and more dependent on these commodities, we wouldn't be dealing with this in th first place.

I'm sorry about my non-productive sarcasm, but the way you very quickly start retorting things you imagine someone has meant or said (well that's common in teh internet) without bothering yourself with the context (that's not) pisses me off often. I'll try to fix my attitude now.

[JohnT]

But I didn't retort anything that you've might have said in this thread! I didn't even quote you - I quoted Flubber. You were the one who retorted with a comment about a thread posted 6 months ago w/o providing any context.

Talk arguing against that which you imagined someone to say!

[RGBVideo]

But I didn't retort anything that you've might have said in this thread! I didn't even quote you

No no no no, not in this thread, I didn't want to imply that. In the one which you digged up, you took your time to search for a big-ass list of retailers without understanding the context (the quote of Verto: in my post I was answering to Verto's talk about oil companies that shouldn't be forced to sell oil itself at cheaper prices) of my original message.

Sorry for the threadjack.

[Flubber]

Re: Re: Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

Originally posted by JohnT


I was thinking along these lines just last night. I was reading a number of "Peak Oil" posts and a number of them kept correcting the detractors by claiming that the theory doesn't state that the oil will run out, but that the cost of oil will become so high that civilization will come grinding to a halt.

However, one thing nobody has ever done, as far as I can tell, is run the numbers to determine:

What price is "too high"?

Obviously $65/barrel can be laughed off w/o any grave effects on the economy or our actions... $150? $250? Has anybody ever tried to find out?

To get back on track-- I don't think we know what price is "too high"-- Six years ago people would have been shocked the idea that $50 oil was sustainable but here we are with a couple of years significantly north of that and, while there have been troubles and adjustments, the sky has yet to fall.

Now I will have a skewed view since Alberta wants higher oil prices to make oilsands development economic. Here in Alberta, high prices mean profits and jobs.

The national news was based in calgary yesterday on CBC and the story was on the lack of available labour. The official unemployment rate here is 3.1% and the story highlighted unfilled jobs. One restaurant is offering a $500 bonus to any workers that stay 3 months and a trip to Mexico if you stay a year. Another is bringing in 10 chefs from Sri Lanka on a 3 year contract. A local drywalling company has Mexicans working here on temporary visas

All this activity is pushed by oil

[Flubber]

Re: Re: Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

Originally posted by JohnT



Obviously $65/barrel can be laughed off w/o any grave effects on the economy or our actions... $150? $250? Has anybody ever tried to find out?

I'll have to look around a bit but certainly there must be economic modelling that predicts impacts at prices like 70 or 80 or 90 a barrell.

Obviously there must be a limit. there comes a point when alternatives are much cheaper or when people simply cut consumption radically-- BUt I'm not sure I know where that is. Most people would have thought there would have been a marked change in behavior at the current levels but it just seems like its not happening

[JohnT]

Re: Re: Re: Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

Originally posted by Flubber


I'll have to look around a bit but certainly there must be economic modelling that predicts impacts at prices like 70 or 80 or 90 a barrell.

Obviously there must be a limit. there comes a point when alternatives are much cheaper or when people simply cut consumption radically-- BUt I'm not sure I know where that is. Most people would have thought there would have been a marked change in behavior at the current levels but it just seems like its not happening

I remember when the prices jumped because of Katrina... it was the Wednesday-Friday before Labor day and prices in Atlanta were over $3.00/gal.

I pulled into a Wendy's to grab a bite to eat - there were 14 cars in the drive through, 2 people inside standing in line.

Whatever.

[Flubber]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

Originally posted by JohnT


I remember when the prices jumped because of Katrina... it was the Wednesday-Friday before Labor day and prices in Atlanta were over $3.00/gal.

I pulled into a Wendy's to grab a bite to eat - there were 14 cars in the drive through, 2 people inside standing in line.

Whatever.

And here in Calgary you still saw large SUV after large SUV containing one person-- Now Calgary may be different since many of these people profit from high oil too . .. but my impression was that consumer behavior changed a little-- some individuals made radical changes but on average folks just went about their lives with little change

[Dinner]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Nuclear tends to be subsidised heavily indirectly. The real cost of power generated by a nuclear plant is significantly higher than that generated by a coal or gas-fired plant.

No more subsidized then any other for of energy. The armies used to secure foreign oil supplies cost money, allowing coal companies to mine public land at virtually no fee also costs something, as does the government building a multibillion dollar dam across a major river or even the tax subsidies for solar.

[Agathon]

Re: Re: Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

Originally posted by Drogue

I wouldn't. It's not in their interest to have cheaper oil, nor in the long term interest of the world. The only use of low oil prices is short term economic growth. I'd like to see a slow, steady rise in oil prices, say a couple of percent a year above inflation. Slowly incentivize people to invest in cleaner, sustainable fuels while not doing the huge shock/cripple economy method. And I'd buy stocks in energy technology firms.

You are hereby sentenced to death for using that abominable substitute for a real word.

Report yourself to a local abbatoir.

[Dinner]

BTW my solution to high oil prices and my plan to decrease GHG output.

1) Big increases in CAFE to get ourselves back to the CAFE levels we held in 1988 (that would mean a 20% improvement to CAFE or there about) and once we regained what we had achieved in 1988 we pass them are replicate what the Europeans have already achieved with fuel economy.

2) Massive recylcing of plastics in order to minimize the creation of new plastics (which uses oil) and to save energy as well as to off set imports of raw materials.

3) Sweeping new clean air laws to cut down on GHG output plus manditory "Cap & trade" systems where the cap size keeps shrinking every year. Fines for exceeding caps should be large enough to exceed the cost of installing newer cleaner equipment.

4) To stop companies simply moving off shore massive tarrifs will be placed on all countries which don't sign the new Koyoto agreement along with a series of worker's rights and environmental treaties. Those which do sign get free trade as there reward.

5) change building codes to reward multi-use designs plus require greater energy efficency.

6) increase the gas tax to discourage wasteful use and encourage things like car pooling, walking, biking, and the purchase of more fuel efficent vehicles.

7) protect what competition we do have in the fuel market blocking mergers which would impact the market more then a few percentage points of market share.

8) Build real mass transit and people will use it as long as it is clean, fast, convient, and affordable. Skimp here and no one will use it.

9) Push nuclear energy as the main source of domesticly produced electricity with hydro, wind, and geothermal taking up a few percentage points each. Together they'll help offset a lot of GHG.

10) Domestically produced ethanol to offset imported oil. That just makes sense.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Oerdin
BTW my solution to high oil prices and my plan to decrease GHG output.

1) Big increases in CAFE to get ourselves back to the CAFE levels we held in 1988 (that would mean a 20% improvement to CAFE or there about) and once we regained what we had achieved in 1988 we pass them are replicate what the Europeans have already achieved with fuel economy.

2) Massive recylcing of plastics in order to minimize the creation of new plastics (which uses oil) and to save energy as well as to off set imports of raw materials.

3) Sweeping new clean air laws to cut down on GHG output plus manditory "Cap & trade" systems where the cap size keeps shrinking every year. Fines for exceeding caps should be large enough to exceed the cost of installing newer cleaner equipment.

4) To stop companies simply moving off shore massive tarrifs will be placed on all countries which don't sign the new Koyoto agreement along with a series of worker's rights and environmental treaties. Those which do sign get free trade as there reward.

5) change building codes to reward multi-use designs plus require greater energy efficency.

6) increase the gas tax to discourage wasteful use and encourage things like car pooling, walking, biking, and the purchase of more fuel efficent vehicles.

7) protect what competition we do have in the fuel market blocking mergers which would impact the market more then a few percentage points of market share.

8) Build real mass transit and people will use it as long as it is clean, fast, convient, and affordable. Skimp here and no one will use it.

9) Push nuclear energy as the main source of domesticly produced electricity with hydro, wind, and geothermal taking up a few percentage points each. Together they'll help offset a lot of GHG.

10) Domestically produced ethanol to offset imported oil. That just makes sense.

To add to this:

11. Build a National high-speed rail system connecting all cities over 5,000 people and to all suburbs.

12. Encourage high-density development as opposed to suburban sprawl by giving tax deductions for living in a condo or appartment within 2 miles of said national high-speed rail system

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Oerdin
BTW my solution to high oil prices

Those are impressive ideas, but we can't lower oil prices alone if world demand doesn't decrease. Your solutions are very costly, so we might have trouble getting from here to there.

[Kidlicious]

Re: Re: Re: Fixing oil ? What's your approach?

Originally posted by Flubber
Obviously there must be a limit. there comes a point when alternatives are much cheaper or when people simply cut consumption radically-- BUt I'm not sure I know where that is. Most people would have thought there would have been a marked change in behavior at the current levels but it just seems like its not happening

I think instead of an imediate change in behavior, we are going to see inflation and central banks raising interest rates which will eventually slow down the economy.

[TCO]

I would encourage production in the US. This would be more in the nature of trying to fracture the cartel than for the production itself. I beleive that a large part of the current pricing and even futures pricing is related to the expectation of a strong cartel.