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Turns chess board around. So why aren't 5 year futures lower?
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Good question. No way to divine a satisfactory answer.
Some talk about speculators carving out a nice chunk of the market for themselves.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Make me King and things would be different...Comment
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Sadly, kings are of the constitutional style nowadays.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Don't make me get all D2K on your ass.Comment
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D2K is a thin shell of his former self.
Anyway, I agree that as a theoretical matter, an extra, quick shot of US production could destablize the cartel. However, there seems little prospect of this, from my vantage point as a marginal producer who could provide such a shot in the arm. Not much drilling is going on in my old neighborhood, even with $60/bbl sustained. From what I can see, the equipment is going toward natural gas fields out West. In the late 70s/early 80s, it was something of a gold rush -- lots of activity in marginal areas.
It takes a long time to spool up the offshore/Alaska drilling, although I guess you could argue that the prospect of increased production 5 or 10 years in the future could impact the cartel.Last edited by DanS; March 23, 2006, 21:56.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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nm...Comment
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I bet you a dollar that prices in 5 years will be at least as high as today in nominal terms (US$)Originally posted by DanS
Good question. No way to divine a satisfactory answer.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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I'll bet in five years that the price is $5/gal.Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I bet you a dollar that prices in 5 years will be at least as high as today in nominal terms (US$)
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I'm not talking about retail gasoline prices...12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Sure, I'll take that bet. Light sweet crude is trading around $64/bbl, so let's set that as the strike price.Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I bet you a dollar that prices in 5 years will be at least as high as today in nominal terms (US$)I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Fine with me
12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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You are betting against the futures market, Kitty. (And note that you said in current dollars, so you will have inflation working against you.
Dan, giving that Kitty is giving you odds versus the futures market, raise the bet to 100,000,000. You could even hedge with some futures buying and make the transaction riskless for you.Comment
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OPEC doesn't want the price of oil this high, and it is. Therefore, OPEC has no control of the price. It's very simple. There is no cartel price anymore.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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No, he said nominal dollars. I think KH and I are on the same page.And note that you said in current dollars
With regard to the odds, this is for pride. KH will not like losing to me on this bet. KH values pride more than money. That said, I would be willing to up the bet to an arbitrary amount of KH's choosing. I view this as an almost riskless bet for me anyway without hedging.
Edit: I'm not so sure that the transaction costs for hedging wouldn't eat into my profits to an unacceptable degree. December '11s are about $63/bbl. Also, I'm not so sure that KH's ability to pay would cover a large bet. Certainly not riskless (no offense intended, Kitty).Last edited by DanS; March 24, 2006, 12:45.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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