Are you ready for some FOOTBALL! - Hot Stove Edition

[OzzyKP]

Yea but proving yourself by running sprints on a track is totally different from being out on the field and proving yourself to be effective. It seems Young has done that. So whatever he does in a workout session doesn't seem to be as important.

And certainly I am aware of QB busts, poor Joey...., but if its a crap shoot anyhow, I'd prefer someone who proved himself on the field gameday over someone who proved himself during warm-ups.

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Since 1982, QB busts drafted in the top 12...

1982 - Art Sclichter #4
1986 - Chuck Long #12
1987 - Kelly Stouffer #6
1990 - Andre Ware #7
1992 - David klingler #6
1993 Rick Mirer #2
1998 - Ryan Leaf #2
1999 - Tim Couch #1, Akili Smith #3, Cade McNown #12
2002 - Joey Harrington #3

For playing well enough to be worthy of the high pick, it's really only about a 50-50 bet.

I have a feeling that Alex Smith is going to be added to that list someday. That's the 49ers' punishment for having two Hall of Fame QBs in a row, followed by a multiple Pro Bowler.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Since 1982, QB busts drafted in the top 12...

1982 - Art Sclichter #4
1986 - Chuck Long #12
1987 - Kelly Stouffer #6
1990 - Andre Ware #7
1992 - David klingler #6
1993 Rick Mirer #2
1998 - Ryan Leaf #2
1999 - Tim Couch #1, Akili Smith #3, Cade McNown #12
2002 - Joey Harrington #3

How about Heath Shuler (#3 overall) from 1994?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ShulHe00.htm

By 1997 he reached truly legendary levels of terribleness.
2 touchdowns 14 interceptions

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Yea but proving yourself by running sprints on a track is totally different from being out on the field and proving yourself to be effective. It seems Young has done that. So whatever he does in a workout session doesn't seem to be as important.

... against college players.

Combine stuff is important because simply that you could run or pass over college talent doesn't mean you can be effective on the pro field, which is an entirely different beast. The combine stuff can show which of those players can best replicate their sucess at the next level.

And everyone considered for the first round (or the third round for that matter) 'proved' themselves to be effective in gameday situations.

[-Jrabbit]

Missed Shuler. Good catch, Jaguar.
Stopped after 2002 -- too soon to tell after that.

[-Jrabbit]

Cowboys Sign Vanderjagt

Len Pasquarelli, of ESPN.com, reports the Dallas Cowboys have signed free agent PK Mike Vanderjagt (Colts). According to league sources, Vanderjagt signed a three-year deal. Financial terms of the deal were not available, but it's believed the contract is worth about $2 million annually.

(Wonder who NE will end up with -- Edinger?????)

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Missed Shuler. Good catch, Jaguar.
Stopped after 2002 -- too soon to tell after that.

Well I still hold out hope that Joey will develop. Maybe the Cheifs will be more conducive to his success. You can't blame him really, being a QB in Detroit sets one up for failure no matter how good you are.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
(Wonder who NE will end up with -- Edinger?????)

Flutie. Why do you think Belichick let him try the drop kick at the end of the year? It was obviously a tryout...

I think they'll either draft or try to steal Josh Brown.

[-Jrabbit]

There's still time for some of these guys to blossom (see Jim Plunkett). Couch, for instance, had a serious shoulder injury and could still make a comeback. But after a few years, their value as a first-rounder is dissipated. They have no more (and as proven failures, arguably less) cachet than any other QB available.

That's why you do serious retirement planning with the bulk of your big signing bonus. There are no promises of success in this league.

[-Jrabbit]

For laughs, here are the other top-12 QBs drafted since 1982...

1982 - Jim McMahon #5
1983 - John Elway #1 (plus Todd Blackledge #7, move to Bust list)
1986 - Jim Everett #3
1987 - Vinnie Testaverde #1
1989 - Troy Aikman #1
1990 - Jeff George #1
1993 - Drew Bledsoe #1
1994 - Trent Dilfer #6
1995 - Steve McNair #3, Kerry Collins #5
1998 - Peyton Manning #1
1999 - Donovan McNabb #2, Daunte Culpepper #11
2001 - Michael Vick #1
2002 - David Carr #1

15 players on the "Good Pick" list.
13 players on the "Bust" list (added Blackledge and Shuler).

You can probably argue either way on a few of these guys (natably Dilfer). But based on these 21 drafts, it does seem to be about a 50-50 shot to pick an early 1st round QB who will succeed on the NFL level. (Of course, the odds of QB success get WAY worse with lower picks.)

Prediction: Only one or two of the top 3 QBs in this year's draft will succeed in the NFL.

[OzzyKP]

Marino wasn't picked in the top 12?

edit: I checked, he was drafted 27th, what a steal!

edit2: Joe Montana taken in the 3rd round, Brett Favre taken in the 2nd round, 33rd overall

[Jaguar]

His draft class was absurdly good. It was so good that Dickerson was picked second, but you can't really blame the team with the #1 pick. They took Elway.

[SlowwHand]

Don't lose faith in Alex Smith just yet.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Jaguar
His draft class was absurdly good. It was so good that Dickerson was picked second, but you can't really blame the team with the #1 pick. They took Elway.

Yeah, but then they had to trade him

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Marino wasn't picked in the top 12?

edit: I checked, he was drafted 27th, what a steal!

There were rumors that Marino was a coke head party guy, that's why he fell. That's why he fell all the way to 27. As a Steelers fan, I was very bitter about the whole Marino situation. Marino was born and raised in Pittsburgh and starred for Pitt. Marino fell to the Steelers' pick, and the Steelers passed on him.

If the Steelers would have just picked Marino, we wouldn't have had to suffer through the Malone-Brister-O'Donnel-Tomczak-Stewart-Maddox years.