Are you ready for some FOOTBALL - Playoff Edition

[Dis]

great games this weekend, too bad I missed them due to work. .

I'm glad the Panthers won. I've always liked that team. Never cared for the bears, but my boss likes the bears...

And I like Peyton Manning alot, I thought this would be the year. What is wrong with that team?

[pchang]

When teams can get a good pass rush, Peyton Manning doesn't have the mobility to make things happen on his own. I think his loss percentage goes way up if he gets sacked 3 or more times in a game.

[Dis]

yeah, but usually he thrashes em' with his hurry up offense. I only got to watch the first quarter, so I'm not sure how much they used the hurry up offense that game.

[pchang]

Originally posted by Dis
yeah, but usually he thrashes em' with his hurry up offense.

That is because most teams cannot get a good pass rush on him. Look at the games he lost this season. Most would say the only REAL games he lost were against San Diego and Pittsburgh. Against San Diego, he was sacked 4 times. Against, Pittsburgh, he was sacked 5 times.

[Frozzy]

Manning wants to win too much. He trys to think too much in playoff games and ends up seeing things that aren't there.

In the PIT game, as soo as he played by instincts, he played very well. When he was thinking, he played awfully.

And please, Tom Moore, when a team is consistently blitzing on one side, run some screens or draws. Thank you.

[Frozzy]

Originally posted by MOBIUS
Here is a graphical illustration even the impressively deluded Sava must be able to comprehend, of why the Bears defence is OVERRATED

Teams that the Bears played with top 16 (top 50%) rated offenses:



Teams that the Bears played with next 25% rated offenses:



Teams with the BOTTOM 25% rated offenses:



*Cough*OVERRATED*Cough*

Sava Pwned by a Welsh Sheepshagger on the subject of American Football - oh the shame...

The Bears allowed 6.3% less yards than their opponent's offensive averages during the year (#2 NFL), and 34.1% less points than their opponent's offensive averages during the year (#1 NFL). They also allowed 6.5% less yards than their opponents offenses averaged during the year (#1 NFL)

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by pchang
When teams can get a good pass rush, Peyton Manning doesn't have the mobility to make things happen on his own. I think his loss percentage goes way up if he gets sacked 3 or more times in a game.

Every team loses more when their QB gets sacked more, but to get the sack you need to have the right coverage too. Otherwise good QBs will just complete passes before the rush gets there.

[Japher]

I don't think the Bears defense is/was overrated.

One thing I've learned about football though is that the team with the most points usually wins.

Uh, they need an offense.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Dis
great games this weekend, too bad I missed them due to work. .

I'm glad the Panthers won. I've always liked that team. Never cared for the bears, but my boss likes the bears...

And I like Peyton Manning alot, I thought this would be the year. What is wrong with that team?

First, his success comes primarily from reading defenses and making adjustments. If you put Peyton and Eli side by side and told them to throw at a tire 30 yards away, you'd find little difference in raw accuracy. The difference is in their ability to see what defenses are doing, where the zone will have holes, and who will be passrushing.

One myth that dumbass announcers perpetuate is that bringing pressure helps beat Manning. Bringing the blitz is ineffective against most quarterbacks when it's expected. Even the youngest ones know to check off to a slant when they see a big blitz coming. Manning, of course, is considerably better than that. If a linebacker looks like he's going to blitz, then Peyton will have a receiver run to the hole that the linebacker vacates. Manning actually loves getting blitzed, and he has thirteen touchdown passes (of a total 28, IIRC) off of blitzes. http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9163271

Announcers gave the impression that the Steelers were bringing blitzes repeatedly against Manning to throw him off. That's because they can't count. Whenever someone gets into the backfield quickly, they assume it must have been a big blitz. Often they'll say something idiotic like "they brought in nine men on that blitz." Really, teams never bring more than six. Five is a blitz, six is a big blitz. If you blitz eight, you're leaving three men covering five eligible receivers. Even a mediocre quarterback can get the ball off to one of them.

In all of the first half, I think the Steelers brought five men maybe four times or so. They might have brought six once, but I didn't notice any six-blitzes in the first half when I watched my tape of the game.

So, then, what were they doing to pressure Manning?

Partly, they were just really good. Sometimes Porter and Hampton and Oelhoffen and company got way into the backfield very quickly.

But they were also well-coached. They knew that Manning reads the defense before the snap, so they faked blitzes that didn't materialize, and when Manning expected a man to blitz, he'd find the hole covered after the snap. They also didn't show it when they were going to blitz.

As I mentioned, a standard rush is 4, and even the most blitz-heavy teams use it in more than 60% of their plays. The Steelers, however, have a 3-4 defense. Three down linemen. The other rusher can come from anywhere. 3-4 defenses are more used to bringing a variety of different rushers. They have four linebackers, some of whom are capable of defending the pass rather well. As a result, they're more comfortable with rushing defensive backs as well. Sometimes the Steelers will rush their three linemen and Joey Porter. Sometimes the fourth man will be Ike Taylor. Sometimes it will be Troy Polamalu. You never know. The unpredictability gives the 3-4 defense its strength. The linemen are unsure of whom they'll be blocking.

Why am I making such a big deal about the 3-4?

In full games since November 8, 2004, Manning is 22-3. The three losses are to three different 3-4 teams. The Steelers, the Chargers, and the Patriots.

It's in part a coincidence, to be sure. It's in part because those teams are very good. It's in part because Merriman had his best game of the year at the right time. But it's also because 3-4 defenses are often less straightforward and a smart coach like Belichik, Cowher, or Schottenheimer will figure out how to confuse even the best quarterbacks.

[Frozzy]

Local police today confirm answering a call for "shots fired" at the home of NFL kicker Mike Vanderjagt, Vandy as he is known was found dispondant but unharmed. The subject was noted to be holding a pistol which had clearly been fired repeatedly, it was later found to have only spent shell casings, confirming police suspicions that it was Mr Vanderjagt who actually discharged the weapon...Police did note 6 large holes in the wall just behind and to the right of Mr Vanderjagts head. When questioned Vandy simply kept muttering, "after I missed the kick Sunday I locked myself in my house here, reliving the kick over and over. I just couldn't take it anymore and decided to end it all, I put the gun to my head but every time I pulled the trigger I shot wide right"

No word yet as to whether the gun was tipped at the line of scrimmage, or if Vandy simply slipped on his approach to the gun....

-----

Apparantly though, the ball was tipped at the LOS. I doubt it though because Joey Porter isn't taking credit for it.

[Frozzy]

Jag has a point. The CBS announcers in the PIT-IND game were ****house. When Dallas Clark went for his TD, the announcers said "They have got to keep on blitzing Manning!". The play came off a 6 man blitz.

The big pass tthe Reggie Wayne setting up the Edgerrin James TD came off a 6 man blitz.

[Japher]

laces out!

[pchang]

Please note that I said pass rush and not blitz. Pass rush != blitz. I think Jaguar may be a fan of Gregg Easterbrook.

[Jaguar]

I like him. It's not the first time he's complained about announcers being idiots about blitzes, and it's not the first time I have either. I should add that being a fan of the number one team against the blitz adds to the sentiment. I've seen the blitz get owned for years.

I bet sports announcers have been derided since the days of gladiators.

Pass rush is key, of course. But if you need to take six players to do what other teams can do with four, you're going to get burned.

[Frozzy]

Exhibit A: Green Bay, Week 3, last season.