CanPol: Thread of the Year Edition

[notyoueither]

The gaffs aren't entirely one-sided.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/31/elxn-goldring051231.html

Tory official resigns over website posting
Last Updated Sat, 31 Dec 2005 17:42:39 EST
CBC News
The campaign manager for an Edmonton-area MP resigned Friday after suggesting local Conservatives would start working toward Alberta separation if the Liberals win the election.

Gordon Stamp, manager for Tory MP Peter Goldring, posted the comments on a website called Free Dominion.

"Many of us in Alberta are working on our last federal campaign," he wrote, posting under the pseudonym 'Psycho.'

"If the Liberals remain in power, we will be working on Alberta separation after January 23."

Half of Goldring's campaign team would work toward separation if Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals win, he wrote.

Hours later, Goldring issued a statement saying he was "disturbed" by the comments.

"This evening I learned about comments posted on the Internet by Mr. Gordon Stamp, who has been serving as manager of my campaign in Edmonton East," Goldring said.

"I was deeply disturbed by these comments, which in no way reflect my views or those of the Conservative Party. To the contrary, I have spent my entire adult life fighting for a united Canada, and, in fact, was drawn into public service to fight for Canada as a united federation," Goldring wrote.

It's the latest in a series of website-related blunders in the election campaign.

Mike Klander, the executive vice-president of the Liberal party's Ontario wing, resigned on Boxing Day after he compared NDP candidate Olivia Chow to a dog in a written blog entry.

Days later, Industry Minister David Emerson was criticized after his comments likening NDP Leader Jack Layton's smile to a "boiled dog's head smile" were published on a Liberal blog.

[notyoueither]

There are some convincing arguments that no insider knowledge was required for traders to clean up with income trusts. Will this issue still drag Martin down when added to AdScam?

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051229/ELXN_income_trust_analysis_051229/20051229?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

RCMP may be on 'wild goose chase': Bay St. veteran
Updated Thu. Dec. 29 2005 9:57 PM ET

Canadian Press

TORONTO — Who knew what and when, just before Finance Minister Ralph Goodale announced that income trusts would remain free of corporate tax and that dividend taxes would be cut?

It was common knowledge that a statement was imminent _ and nobody expected Goodale to do anything unpopular ahead of an election.

So an RCMP probe into possible insider leaks could turn out to be, as one Bay Street veteran sees it, "a wild goose chase.''

Goodale made his announcement on Nov. 23 after the close of a stock-market session marked by unusual trading of many income trusts and dividend-paying shares.

That morning's newspapers had reported his promise the previous day to give the trusts issue "the greatest degree of certainty that's possible'' before the defeat of the Liberal minority government in a non-confidence vote set for three business days later.

The minister's move cut short a consultation he had launched in September into the tax treatment of trusts, a process that had been intended to go on until the end of the year.

A story on an inside business page of the Globe and Mail of Nov. 23 called this "a sudden change of timing that experts believe could pave the way for a politically popular dividend tax cut.''

The Mounties, who on Wednesday disclosed a criminal investigation into complaints by opposition politicians of possible insider trading, "are blowing in the wind, quite frankly,'' Ross Healy, president of Strategic Analysis Corp., said Thursday.

"They admitted themselves that they don't have anything and I am baffled as to what they think they're going to get,'' Healy said.

"This just strikes me as being a wild goose chase... I don't think there's anything there to find.''

Tom Caldwell, chairman of Caldwell Securities Ltd., was similarly unconvinced the RCMP will get their man.

"My gut feel is that by the time the smoke clears and a lot of money's wasted, I don't think you're going to find any clear villains,'' said Caldwell.

He added that his own firm had increased its income-trust positions in the weeks before Goodale's announcement, on the assumption that the sector's uncertainty would be resolved in due course.

On Nov. 23, given that an announcement was being moved up to before the election campaign, "you knew it was going to be positive,'' Caldwell said.

"You can interpolate, and I'm sure a lot of traders did interpolate, from the fact that there was going to be an announcement.''

That said, Caldwell noted: "Whenever you're working on a big event and there's a time lag, there's always the possibility of leaks, conscious or unconscious,'' perhaps through casual chatter by low-level workers.

"Remember, this is emanating from Ottawa, so there are people there, maybe working on this, who might not have the wildest idea of the market impact of a misplaced statement -- this is just a hypothesis.''

Tory Leader Stephen Harper said Thursday that it's unlikely investors would have bet big money on mere speculation about the government's intentions.

"People don't usually invest that kind of money on the speculation of a government decision unless they have pretty good reason to believe it's going to occur,'' he said in Vancouver.

"And I can tell you, having been in contact myself with some market players in the days preceding that decision, that decision was not widely anticipated.''

The Ontario Securities Commission, meanwhile, refused to say what it is doing in the case, if anything.

"We routinely monitor trading and we review instances of unusual trading,'' said spokeswoman Wendy Day, but "the OSC practice is neither to confirm nor deny the existence of an investigation.''

[notyoueither]

Perhaps the bigger issue should be mismanagement.

Goodale made his announcement on Nov. 23 after the close of a stock-market session marked by unusual trading of many income trusts and dividend-paying shares.

That morning's newspapers had reported his promise the previous day to give the trusts issue "the greatest degree of certainty that's possible'' before the defeat of the Liberal minority government in a non-confidence vote set for three business days later.

The minister's move cut short a consultation he had launched in September into the tax treatment of trusts, a process that had been intended to go on until the end of the year.

A story on an inside business page of the Globe and Mail of Nov. 23 called this "a sudden change of timing that experts believe could pave the way for a politically popular dividend tax cut.''

Goodale torpedoed the savings of a lot of people by throwing the freeze on income trusts. Then, as he was about to face an election he short circuited his own position and said 'just kidding.'

Meanwhile, many ordinary Canadians had been forced to divest themselves of affected securities under less than favourable circumstances, and many of them would not be expected to follow market news on a daily basis. They got screwed.

Hmmm. I don't see this ending well any way you cut it.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by notyoueither

Getting back to something relevant, don't you think reservists would benefit from reg forces personnel and equipment being available to train with? The jist of what Harper is proposing is reg forces cadres around which the reserves can mobilise.

Why do you have such a problem with it? You don't think reservists would benefit from experienced NCOs and officers training and leading them?

Once again, you demonstrate that you know nothing about the military.

Many reservists are former reg force members. The reserves have experiences NCOs and commissioned officers leading them.

The idea that 400 reg forces members would somehow dramatically improve the abilities of the reserves in a city is ridiculous.

The reg forces are better trained, but that's because they work full-time. Adding reg forces to reserve units won't change the fact that reg forces are part-timers.

Still, the reserves are well trained. Units have served overseas alongside with reg forces units.

So stop insulting the reserves.

As for our military history, you fail to understand that the reserves have always provided a strong, well trained force. The reg forces are designed to hold the front line until the reserves are fully mobilized.

What is needed are more reservists. Instead of wasting $9 billion on an arctic camp just so we can say "we see you" to passing ships, the government should use the money to expand the reserves.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Tingkai
...

The idea that 400 reg forces members would somehow dramatically improve the abilities of the reserves in a city is ridiculous.

The reg forces are better trained, but that's because they work full-time. Adding reg forces to reserve units won't change the fact that reg forces are part-timers.

Do you have even a basic grasp of the facts?

As for our military history, you fail to understand that the reserves have always provided a strong, well trained force. The reg forces are designed to hold the front line until the reserves are fully mobilized.

Horse hockey. Show it.

What is needed are more reservists. Instead of wasting $9 billion on an arctic camp just so we can say "we see you" to passing ships, the government should use the money to expand the reserves.

More basic challenge with facts. From which orifice do you pull this $9 billion number?

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by notyoueither


They shut down all the other military bases for ground forces and moved everyone from BC and Calgary to Edmonton as a cost cutting move. That was several years ago.

It makes sense to have a major depot in Edmonton, but it was also rumoured to be a reward for Landslide Annie (hence Edmonton over Calgary).

Conservatives sure are conspiracy freaks.



I suppose they shut down the base in London because it had Conservative MPs. Oh wait, London has Liberal MPs.

Well, I'm sure the conspiracy freaks here will come up with a good theory.

[notyoueither]

Actually, that was published in the press (no, not the Sun) but feel free to continue making a fool of yourself.

The very idea! A deputy PM in an area traditionally hostile to the governing party was given a bone to be shown to bring home the bacon. Not in Canada under these Liberals! Scandalous to suggest it!

What turnip truck did you fall off?

[notyoueither]

Bad news for Layton, and Harper.

http://www.ctv.ca//servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20051229/ELXN_poll_060101/20060101?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

People like NDP but fear Tory government: poll
Updated Sun. Jan. 1 2006 11:25 PM ET

Canadian Press

OTTAWA — Strategic voting could once again drive supporters away from the NDP and into the waiting arms of Paul Martin's Liberals, indicates a new opinion survey that comes as the federal election campaign enters its crucial second half.

Stakes are high as polling suggests Martin and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper are in a statistical dead heat, leading observers to warn an ugly fight for dominance lies just ahead.

And that means NDP supporters who fear a Conservative win could become crucial in the Jan. 23 vote as some consider shifting alliances to tip the balance in the Liberals' favour, says the latest Decima Research survey.

It suggests that many voters like Jack Layton's New Democrats but would still jump to the Liberals if they suspect a Conservative surge.

The online survey of 6,380 voters, released Sunday to The Canadian Press, suggests that half of those surveyed would like to see more New Democrats in the House of Commons.

But only about one-third would favour that if voting NDP might split the ballot and ultimately mean a Conservative victory, says the survey, considered accurate to within 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

It was conducted between Dec. 29 and Dec. 31, as part of a voter tracking study being conducted by Decima with help from the Carleton University School of Journalism and Communication.

That kind of strategic voting has plagued the NDP in previous elections, as many Canadians have flirted with the party but ultimately chosen another.

Layton brushed off suggestions that strategic voting could once again hurt his campaign, just as it did in the 2004 election after the Liberals mounted a successful scare campaign around Harper.

"I think Canadians are going to vote for what they really believe in this time around, and that means a lot of them are going to come to the NDP,'' Layton said at a New Year's Day levee in Toronto.

But that may not be enough for the New Democrats.

A separate Decima telephone survey released Saturday put Liberal support at 32 per cent of those who are likely to vote, compared to 30 per cent who said they intend to back the Conservatives.

The New Democrats were favoured by 18 per cent of the 1,020 respondents to survey taken between Dec. 29 and Dec. 30, while 14 per cent said they will vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

That poll came after the RCMP confirmed it had launched an investigation into allegations of a leak from the Finance Department ahead of an announcement on income trusts.

Opposition parties and some market watchers complained that a leak on tax rules governing the popular investment vehicles was responsible for a surge in trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange hours before Finance Minister Ralph Goodale made it official.

Goodale, who has refused opposition calls to resign, said he will meet with investigators this week.

All this suggests an election that's still up for grabs, which makes it likely the tone of the campaign could turn ugly.

"I would expect that there's going to be a more vigorous effort to refine and clarify the choices between the Conservatives and Liberals and that's only natural, given that the stakes go up with each passing day,'' said Decima's Bruce Anderson.

The Conservatives have already fired the first shot with an aggressive new television ad that features a black and white close-up photo of a grim-faced Martin.

A narrator talks about corruption and scandal while Martin's face gives way to a newspaper headline that says PM Plans Negative Campaign.

The Liberals have dubbed it the first real attack ad of the campaign and say they'll be releasing their own TV spots soon, which they expect will be positive, touting their government's record.

While Layton said he has no plans to change his campaign tactics, the NDP faces a struggle to capitalize on apparent public goodwill, said Anderson.

When participants in the online survey were asked if they would like to see more New Democrats in the Commons, 50 per cent agreed, said Anderson.

But when asked if they'd like to see more New Democrats elected, even if it means the Conservatives ultimately win power, support fell to 35 per cent.

And -- showing how soft some NDP support is -- 27 per cent of respondents who said they've decided to vote NDP or are definitely leaning that way also said they'd shift to the Liberals if they thought a Tory win was possible, he noted.

"As published polls show a narrowing of the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives, perhaps the most critical question affecting the outcome is whether the NDP will be able to capitalize on the voter interest it has won so far.''

I'm not sure how reliable a... what's that term for non-random poll?... is. 35% for the NDP?

But not good news for either opposition party, at any rate.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Actually, that was published in the press (no, not the Sun) but feel free to continue making a fool of yourself.

The very idea! A deputy PM in an area traditionally hostile to the governing party was given a bone to be shown to bring home the bacon. Not in Canada under these Liberals! Scandalous to suggest it!

And they closed down CFB Avenue Road and Downsview in Toronto to punish them Liberal MPs there, eh.

The fact is that the military needed to rationalize the bases and to save money by concentrating units. It was done without the politicking that happened in the U.S.

As for Chilliwack, given the relatively limited land space in the lower mainland, it makes sense to close the base so that it can be used for civilian purposes.

[joncha]

Heh. The redevelopment of CFB Chilliwack was an afterthought that happened years after the base closed. It is possible to make good arguments against funding the military, but you're just being a tool, Tingkai.

[Tingkai]

No, at the time, there was pressure from municipal leaders to have the land redeveloped.

And if I recall correctly, some of the land was claimed by native bands.

We simply can't afford to establish military bases just so people in a province can say they have a military base.

The bases need to be located where they can best serve the needs of the military.

[notyoueither]

What about the military serving the needs of the nation?

And again, Harper wants to use Comox and Esquimault.

[joncha]

Originally posted by Tingkai
No, at the time, there was pressure from municipal leaders to have the land redeveloped.

AFTER they closed the base. Before that there wasn't a single municipal leader who wanted the base closed.

When did you become a mouthpiece for the Liberals, Tingkai?

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by notyoueither
What about the military serving the needs of the nation?

And again, Harper wants to use Comox and Esquimault.

So he's complaining that there are no Reg Forces at CFB Comox and Esquimault. Well that's brilliant.

The primary task of the reg forces is the military defence of the nation, not preparing for an earthquake.

Emergency aid for civil side are handled mainly by the reserves.

There are reserve units in the lower mainland who can help out in an emergency.

What part of this simple equation do you not understand?

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by joncha


AFTER they closed the base. Before that there wasn't a single municipal leader who wanted the base closed.

When did you become a mouthpiece for the Liberals, Tingkai?

I recall the situation differently.

And this has nothing to do with politics. This is about the military and what it needs.

If the Conservatives offered some realistic plans for the military than I would say fine. The problem is the Conservatives are either incredibly stupid when it comes to the military or they're promising anything they can to get votes.

The Liberals are no better. They cut the military and then expand its responsibilities. There has been some signs of improvements, such as allowing the purchase of new Hercs, but there is still a lot of damage that needs to be repaired.

Reopening Chilliwack and building another Arctic base is not what the military needs.