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215,000 new jobs in November; let the good times roll again!

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  • Originally posted by Odin


    Negative economic growth for at least 6 months. You learn that in HS civics.

    What I am getting as is that using GDP as a benchmark makes no distintion about who is benifiting from the growth. The rich could be getting richer while wages stay stagnant and you would still get an GDP increase.
    GDP isn't supposed to make that distinction. GDP measures economic output and its growth. Period. If you want to check income equality, then go look for other types of data.
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    • There has to be a good explanation for why we are at historically very high corporate earnings while capital expenditures and hiring are somewhat less than very high.

      I think we are in the lag period between high earnings and high capital expenditures and hiring. Maybe I didn't express this well in my post above. When increases in profit (that shareholders demand) don't flow so freely, that's when companies will start adding capital investments and hires in order to drive their top-line growth.

      Here's the graph I put together in April.
      Attached Files
      Last edited by DanS; December 4, 2005, 13:28.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • Who said the country is in recession?


        43% of the population.


        KH FOR OWNER!
        ASHER FOR CEO!!
        GUYNEMER FOR OT MOD!!!

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        • I didn't see them post in this thread.
          Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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          • Because Apolyton is a representative sample of the American population?

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            • I note that the household survey is a mostly inferior data series versus the employer survey, because the employer payroll survey can be checked easily against what's coming in for federal payroll taxes and there are 50,000 data points in the sample for it each month. Because of this, I always refer to the employer payroll survey.

              The household survey is what is used to calculate the unemployment rate. I only look at the household survey out of curiosity, or if the household survey and employer payroll survey diverge over the long run.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • Yeah. I was really just trying to get to the reason why one number could say a gain of 215k while the other number had total employment remaining constant.
                12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                Stadtluft Macht Frei
                Killing it is the new killing it
                Ultima Ratio Regum

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                • Presumably, the two should converge over the long run (a couple years). Month-to-month differences are to be expected, however.
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                  • Unless there's some sort of systematic bias, then yes.
                    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                    Stadtluft Macht Frei
                    Killing it is the new killing it
                    Ultima Ratio Regum

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                    • Originally posted by DanS
                      There has to be a good explanation for why we are at historically very high corporate earnings while capital expenditures and hiring are somewhat less than very high.

                      I think we are in the lag period between high earnings and high capital expenditures and hiring. Maybe I didn't express this well in my post above. When increases in profit (that shareholders demand) don't flow so freely, that's when companies will start adding capital investments and hires in order to drive their top-line growth.

                      Here's the graph I put together in April.
                      I think that consumer demand drives profit, and it's that drive that encourages hiring. When companies try to increase profits they usually do it with cost cutbacks and restructuring that ends up with layoffs.
                      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                      • Originally posted by DanS
                        I note that the household survey is a mostly inferior data series versus the employer survey...
                        The household data is not necessarily inferior.

                        The problem with the employer survey is that it only counts payroll expenditures. So if an employer changes a full-time job into two part-time jobs then this would count as one new job created.
                        Golfing since 67

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                        • And I believe it's been consistently pointed out in these threads that the median income has risen as well, and that these aren't "McJobs" being created like Odin & Co. claim in every single fscking one of these threads.

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                          • Originally posted by KrazyHorse
                            Unless there's some sort of systematic bias, then yes.
                            Employer information should be reliable, given that employers are under pain of law to submit accurate information re payroll data.
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                            • Originally posted by KrazyHorse
                              Yeah. I was really just trying to get to the reason why one number could say a gain of 215k while the other number had total employment remaining constant.
                              One explanation could be that more people have more than one job.

                              If employers are creating more part-time jobs, and those jobs are being filled by people who already have part-time jobs then employment levels would remain constant, or even possibly shrink, even though 215K jobs have been created.
                              Golfing since 67

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                              • That would be possible by Canadian payroll reporting standards, but it would be a very depressed view.
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