Do you see china as "the enemy"?

[Verto]

The Red Menace must not be underestimated.

[Sava]

[GePap]

China is the future. Therefore, the future is the enemy!

[Joseph]

One day China will be the enemy, a shooting war enemy. I believe that day will be prior to 2050. As of now China is trying to bridge the tech gap.

[mindseye]

As I've said around here before, I strongly feel China's environmental problems pose a much greater threat to the world than its military or geopolitical ambitions.

Recent events around Harbin are good example of what I'm talking about. One hundred tons of benzene, a fifty mile slick, headed for a city's drinking water, and officials at multiple levels repeatedly flat-out denied there was a problem until enough information leaked out and they were forced to say something.

If you doubt this danger, ask anyone who lives along the Mekong River after it exits China, and what success they've had approaching China about this massive and growing problem.

I'm also very worried that China's economy wil become so influential that it's business culture will influence that of other nations. This would also be a very bad thing, in my opinion also a much more realistic danger than a hypothetical clash of arms.

If China's gov't could somehow morph into a more benign, more accountable organization, the Chinese have an excellent opportunity to become a major force of good on the planet. Although most Chinese are very nationalistic, I really do believe that most are also peaceful by nature, and not really interested in wars or invasions (the big exception, of course, being Taiwan).

For instance, China could easily become a world leader in fields such alternative energy sources, biotech, automoble tech and manufacturing, or space exploration to name a few promising areas.

China's potential is so enormous, but the political and economic constraints are also enormous. How this will unfold will be one of the great dramas of the 21st century.

[Bosh]

As I've said around here before, I strongly feel China's environmental problems pose a much greater threat to the world than its military or geopolitical ambitions.

Exactly
Sucks being down-wind from China, especially when I get Chinese topsoil blowing in my face for a month in the spring...

[DaShi]

I think the question to ask is: What do the Chinese think about you?

As for China rise: it's impossible to predict. There are just as many things pushing China forward as there are pushing it back. Of course once China catches up to the West, where will it go from there? Currently, nearly of all China's growth comes from and is dependent on foreign countries in one way or another. Can they truly make it on their own? Ancient history says yes. Recent history says no. Who knows?

[GePap]

Originally posted by DaShi
I think the question to ask is: What do the Chinese think about you?

As for China rise: it's impossible to predict. There are just as many things pushing China forward as there are pushing it back. Of course once China catches up to the West, where will it go from there? Currently, nearly of all China's growth comes from and is dependent on foreign countries in one way or another. Can they truly make it on their own? Ancient history says yes. Recent history says no. Who knows?

Why wouldn't the Chinese not make it on their own? Once they have enough foreign capital to invest internally then you can kee yourself going solely on your domestic markets. China is in the "gather capital" stage right now. How many people in 1979 thought China would be even a third as rich today as it is? Please. Back in 1979 most people probably thought Deng was a bit kooky and a huge dreamer.

[Zkribbler]

As China's economy becomes more integrated with the industrialized world, the chance of a military class declines as China metamorphosizes from an enemy into a competitor.

The problem with China will be its payment of stavation wages to its working class and its ecological atrocities, two policies that plague emerging nations.

[Elok]

Not really. I see Dubya, Kamau Kambon, Scientology, and the desperate tottering nuke-happy loons in North Korea as "the enemy." Not necessarily in that order, and that's hardly an exhaustive list.

China is an emerging power with a bad human-rights record and an insanely large population. They seem to be eager mostly to retain their old brutality while emerging into the VIP section of the world community, which may or may not work so well. I'm ignorant on the matter, but my paltry opinion gives them about a thirty percent chance, if that. Repressive societies don't adapt very well to a rapidly changing world. At any rate, I don't think they're going to try to "spread" their brand of communism (do they even know what their ideology is anymore?), and they've been making our products for us for decades anyway. They might become more expensive products of a higher quality, but that might not be too bad either. I should shut up now, though, since I'm DEFINITELY not qualified to speak on economic issues.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by GePap


Why wouldn't the Chinese not make it on their own? Once they have enough foreign capital to invest internally then you can kee yourself going solely on your domestic markets. China is in the "gather capital" stage right now. How many people in 1979 thought China would be even a third as rich today as it is? Please. Back in 1979 most people probably thought Deng was a bit kooky and a huge dreamer.

Depends on whether the system can hold together. China has a lot more to worry about than where to invest their money. There's also the problem of lack of innovation. During both America's and Japan's ecnomic booms, there was a surge of new ideas and technology. In fact, that's been the case for most countries. China, despite being one of the most impressive economic upswings, is extremely dissappointing on the r&d front.

Deng? He opened China up to the rest of the world.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
The problem with China will be its payment of stavation wages to its working class

Actually, wages for factory workers have been steadily rising in China.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DaShi


Depends on whether the system can hold together. China has a lot more to worry about than where to invest their money. There's also the problem of lack of innovation. During both America's and Japan's ecnomic booms, there was a surge of new ideas and technology. In fact, that's been the case for most countries. China, despite being one of the most impressive economic upswings, is extremely dissappointing on the r&d front.

Is that so? What great R&D came from Australia? Or Austria? Or Switzerland? France? Spain? Italy? What great inventions came from Italy as it became one of the top 10 economies in the world?

In 25 years the Chinese have made mind-numbing leaps, having to deal with an economy of scales no other state has ever even dreamt of having to deal with. For god's sake, if China reached Costa Rica's PCI in constant dollars, its economy would be bigger than Japan's. If it reached South korea's, its economy would be bigger than that of the US.

Deng? He opened China up to the rest of the world.

And back in 1979 I doubt most people would have thought that by 2000 China's economy would bein the top 5 in terms of constant dollars. The Chinese proved them wrong.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
As China's economy becomes more integrated with the industrialized world, the chance of a military class declines as China metamorphosizes from an enemy into a competitor.

The problem with China will be its payment of stavation wages to its working class and its ecological atrocities, two policies that plague emerging nations.

That and unimportant little flaws like sending North Korean refugees back to their deaths...

[DaShi]

Originally posted by GePap


Is that so? What great R&D came from Australia? Or Austria? Or Switzerland? France? Spain? Italy? What great inventions came from Italy as it became one of the top 10 economies in the world?

One quick one for each: Australia, sports. Austria, frankly don't follow the country, seems like the Canada of Europe in that it somehow falls into obscurity in my mind like that. Switzerland, watches. France, politics. Spain, music. Italy, film. Germany, a lot of sciences (why was your list missing this top 3 country?) It doesn't have to be a great invention (this is something specific you added to try to win a losing argument). Since you're so big on how great China's development has been, I originally picked two countries that fit the role closest as examples. You're requirements don't change the fact that China has a major innovation problem.

In 25 years the Chinese have made mind-numbing leaps, having to deal with an economy of scales no other state has ever even dreamt of having to deal with. For god's sake, if China reached Costa Rica's PCI in constant dollars, its economy would be bigger than Japan's. If it reached South korea's, its economy would be bigger than that of the US.

Which has nothing to do with what I said. You're hugging these comments like an old teddy bear to console yourself that you understand China, which you clearly don't.