Hypotethical situation: The US pulls out of Iraq

[Velociryx]

....a split second too late.

Iraq is impregnated. Nine months from now, Allah-Land is born, which proves to be a strange synthesis of down home Christian religious conservatism and Islamic radicalism.

Within six months, it has a GDP larger than the US and China combined, as it becomes the world's premier arms dealer, and begins exerting an increasing amount of influence around the globe.

Once his term ends here, Shrub begins campaigning hard to become their next president, and takes to wearing a turban.

That was easy...

-=Vel=-

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Velociryx
....a split second too late.

Iraq is impregnated. Nine months from now, Allah-Land is born, which proves to be a strange synthesis of down home Christian religious conservatism and Islamic radicalism.

Within six months, it has a GDP larger than the US and China combined, as it becomes the world's premier arms dealer, and begins exerting an increasing amount of influence around the globe.

Once his term ends here, Shrub begins campaigning hard to become their next president, and takes to wearing a turban.

That was easy...

-=Vel=-

Yeah, and when it easy, it sometimes also is wrong

The rising oil prices has that funny effect that other sources of energy gets competitive, so the oil regime of Iraq may be short. I know that Shrub is considered to be dumb, but I don't think that he is as dumb as people may consider him. I guess that he stays in texas and starts windmill farms.

[Mr. Harley]

from Turkey and the Middle East. I also found a second link,

But more important is that Turkey gained security. The Iraqi army was weakened, significant parts of it were annihilated and the country was subjected to extensive intelligence surveillance. Turkey was inundated with modern weapons systems (600 M60 tanks, 400 Leopard tanks, 700 armored troop carriers, and an assortment of helicopters, missiles and planes). The "Patriot" missiles stationed in Turkey in the course of the fighting were ultimately left in place. Turkey's air force gained over 40 US combat planes, while its aircraft industry (T.A.I.) has been licensed to construct 46 F-16s and, moreover, sell them (in this instance, to Egypt). Turkey is now in second place among all the countries receiving surplus American weaponry. Turkey has since received billions of dollars in export contracts, oil deliveries, customs concessions, grants, canceled debts and access to markets which have more than made up for its initial losses.

However, I finally found a link indicating that the Leopard's may be Mark 1's, which do not have composite armor. Defense Industry Daily. Plus a second link confirming a minimum of 230 of those are the Leopard 1's - p26: Cold War Dinosaurs or Hi-Tech Arms Providers.

These figures help to explain how the Leopard 2 has become the modern-day standard European and Scandinavian tank via second-hand purchases and upgrades. Not to mention the remarkably inexpensive terms on which countries like Greece and Spain are acquiring them. While Germany will not sell them to just anybody (it refused Turkey, for instance), the fire-sale process for those countries that are on the approved list make serious consideration of new-built Western 6th generation tanks like the American M1 Abrams, British Challenger, or French LeClerc virtually impossible. Even far-inferior options like the T-72 make little sense in this context.

This is significant because the modern composite armor tanks are largely immune to anything the Kurds have. However, the current inventory in the Turkish arsenal is the older rolled steel MBT's, and these are vulnerable, especially given the terrain considerations and the fact that the older Soviet weapons that will make up the bulk of the Kurdish weaponry was designed to defeat precisely those threats.

The reorganization of the Turkish army to meet newer Nato standards of mobility would make it more dangerous in the context of an war with the Kurds of Iraq, especially reference both their attack helicopters and the TAC cabability of their air force. What these facts basically show is that that Turkey would win the conventional war, albeit with more losses than the US forces had against Iraqi army. In the subsequent guerilla war they could expect even heavier losses than the US is currently suffering. I would suspect, only suspect mind you, that the current government would not attempt this. However, I am not familiar with the current relationship between the Turkish military and the civil government. Since the Turkish military has a degree of autonomy from the civil government, and it is determined to remain secular, I cannot speak with any authority on those issues, which are critical for our speculations here.

[GePap]

Iran is years away form the even the most rudimentary nuclear weapon.

Turkey has the largest army in the Middle East, which makes sense given they are the biggest country in the ME. They would beat Iran in a war, thought a war Between Iran and Turkey is far fecthed.

Both Iran and Turkey would have significant reasons to crush an independent Kurdistan, and they would probably work together, not against each other, to end a trully independent Kurdish state.

The Turkish military probably has more than enough autonomy to move in northern Iraq on its own volition, thought the amount of opposition that the Civil government would state would depend on the size of the outrage form Europe and the US, neither of which would care that much about Turkish concerns about Kurdish nationalism.

[Ted Striker]

Resisting urge to post pics of hot Turkish chicks.

[Mr. Harley]

No - please do.

[Ted Striker]

[Mr. Harley]

:drool:

[Saras]

She looks very greek

[Zevico]

Niiiiiiiiice.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by shawnmmcc
Thanks Oerdin - I knew about the two Kurdish groups, but cannot remember their names.

The Kurdish Democratic Party (PDK) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The PUK is actually a splinter group of the PDK and the leader of the PUK used to be the second in command of the PDK. In the Anfal campaign of the 1970's General Barzani (the founder of the PDK) launched a civil war against the Iraqi Sunni government with the support of the Shahist government of Iran. The Kurds hate the Persians (the kurds don't seem to get alone with many people) and weren't going to accept the Persian offer but they said they'd do it if the US agreed to help. Kissinger told Barzani the Us would help the Persians supple the Kurdish rebels.

The Kurds usually are guarilla fighters but this time they tried to fight a conventional war against the Iraqs with front lines, trenches, and fixed positions. They did well too except the Shah sold them out and agreed to turn on them in exchange for Saddam giving the Shah some land in southern Iraq. The Kurds then found themselves without support and facing both the Iraqi and Iranian armies. Hundreds of thousands if not millions were killed and vast areas were ethnically cleansed. Nixon's administration had fallen and Ford was i power but Ford didn't want to start a war in Iraq since Vietnam was in its final throws. This is why many Kurds believed the US betrayed them by not coming when Kissinger implied they would.

[Mr. Harley]

Right - that history I knew. I am more interested in the Shia milities, because that is a real wildcard. Did a little research after you mentioned it, and found out the government has it's own militia of 15,000. That's a big paramilitary.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by BlackCat
Nah, that would never happen - both Iran and Turkey are muslim countries and muslims doesn't fight muslims.....*

* not my words, but the reason that danish muslim soldiers gives for not going to Afghanistan/Iraq

The bastards who ignored their orders after joining the army should be publically flogged then sent to prison to be ass raped for the rest of their lives. Muslims don't fight muslims? ****, they've been butchering each other just as long as everyone else has.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Oerdin


The Kurdish Democratic Party (PDK) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The PUK is actually a splinter group of the PDK and the leader of the PUK used to be the second in command of the PDK. In the Anfal campaign of the 1970's General Barzani (the founder of the PDK) launched a civil war against the Iraqi Sunni government with the support of the Shahist government of Iran. The Kurds hate the Persians (the kurds don't seem to get alone with many people) and weren't going to accept the Persian offer but they said they'd do it if the US agreed to help. Kissinger told Barzani the Us would help the Persians supple the Kurdish rebels.

The Kurds usually are guarilla fighters but this time they tried to fight a conventional war against the Iraqs with front lines, trenches, and fixed positions. They did well too except the Shah sold them out and agreed to turn on them in exchange for Saddam giving the Shah some land in southern Iraq. The Kurds then found themselves without support and facing both the Iraqi and Iranian armies. Hundreds of thousands if not millions were killed and vast areas were ethnically cleansed. Nixon's administration had fallen and Ford was i power but Ford didn't want to start a war in Iraq since Vietnam was in its final throws. This is why many Kurds believed the US betrayed them by not coming when Kissinger implied they would.

DAMN

I didn't know that

So we sold the Kurds out TWICE now????