Hypotethical situation: The US pulls out of Iraq

[chequita guevara]

It would be a civil war, but unless the Sunnis were able to restore the Ba'athis army, they'd come out the worst for it.

[Flip McWho]

But Gods on Osama's side.


But Gods on the Americans side.



My god I'm confused.

[Mr. Harley]

First - when Saddam's army disintegrated, the Kurds walked in and helped themselves to the hardware from several divisions. When the US insisted that the Kurds remove their forces from Kirkut, I saw the video of a road jammed with ex-Iraqi army hardware being removed. They already have weapons, it's just that the Turks do have superior hardware. Now if the Kurds can get some US hardware, they can become an even tougher and more expensive nut to crack.

However, the Kurds are not being paticularly nice to the native Turkmans, and that is providing local support for the Al Quaeda destrabilizers. It also may give Turkey an excuse to intervene in the North. However, since Turkey is now becoming a conservative quasi-religious state, the US may not be as neutral over this as they might have if Turkey had helped out with the invasion and still had a purely secular government. Turkey is the wildcard in the situation.

However, I find the idea of Muqtada al-Sadr making coming cause with the Sunni highly improbable. Instead I see his militia becoming the counter-weight to the Sunni death squads, producing a blood bath in central Iraq. I have documented before that while Imam Sistani has been calling for moderation in the face of the Sunni death squads (who are excuting large numbers of young combat aged Shia males, in numbers such that 60 corpses at a time are fished out of the Eurphates), the Shia have started counter-reprisals.

This will put al-Sadr in the position to become the de facto Shia domestic and religious leader in Iraq. He might accept being designated Imam Sistani's successor, while taking control of most of the security mechanisms of the state. The only question is that the Shia of Iraq are Arabs, and feel that the Shia of Iran treat them as second class Shia. I am not sure how that will play out reference Iraq becoming it's own theocratic state in alliance with Iran, or becoming a satellite state of Iran.

The Sunnis cannot win. The Shia control the army, police, and the courts - and one they seriously deploying their own militias, the Sunnis will not have the numbers, the weaponry, nor the monopoly on atrocities. As the Shia militias escalate over the car bombings of Mosques and children, you can expect ethnic cleanising, maybe even to the point of genuine genocide, on the part of the militias. Look to Central America and the wipings out of entire villages of Mayan descended inhabitants for what it will look like.

As a point, each and everyone of you imagine if your child, or mother, or sister was killed in a car bomb, or your brother or sister executed by a local Sunni death squad. The numbers of Shia who have died due to this are in the thousands, and each of the dead has an extended family that has suffered. Now maybe some of you can honestly say you would not do something violent in retribution, but I am sufficiently self-honest to know that I would join one of "our" militias, and would already be hunting down the perpetrators. And my interrogation procedures would not be according to the Geneva conventions.

[Dinner]

The name of the city is Kirkuk. Or at least that's what all of the locals and Americans called it when I was there plus the signs on the road read Kirkuk in English as well as Arabic.

Also Sadr's Madhi militia is just one of four large Shi'a militias though Sadr is the most militantly anti-westerner so he gets lots of attention (It's also the largest but the Badr Brigade is a close second). Don't forget the Kurds have two different armed factions which fought a civil war for most of a decade and only patched things up because the US/UK said they'd only help the Kurds if the Kurds ended their civil war. There are lots of different armed factions and it is far more complicated then

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by shawnmmcc
Turkey is the wildcard in the situation.

If the Kurds try to as much as think about seceding from Iraq, or aid the Kurds in Turkey in their fight for freedomterrorist acts, the Turks will pounce.

Originally posted by shawnmmcc
However, I find the idea of Muqtada al-Sadr making coming cause with the Sunni highly improbable. Instead I see his militia becoming the counter-weight to the Sunni death squads, producing a blood bath in central Iraq.

Since Sadr doesn't see eye-to-eye with the Shiite majority, he could go his own way, making this a very confusing situation.

[Mr. Harley]

Thanks Oerdin - I knew about the two Kurdish groups, but cannot remember their names. They seem to have come to a pretty decent working arrangement, enough cash and an exterior enemy can do wonders.

I knew there were multiple militias on the Shia side, just not how many. Can you fill in details on the other three, I'm very interested.

This could make the War of the Three Henry's look simple.

[Saras]

From a cynical armchair generals and a "Which is the best MBT" thread fans POV, I'd like to see Turkish Leopards duke it out with Iraqi/Kurdish M1 Abrams

[Saras]

That means, US please give some abrams tanks to iraq/kurdistan

[Mr. Harley]

But we won't, which means they will be using obsolete Soviet Armor against the Leopards. Do the Turkish Leopards have composite or rolled steel armor? If it's the composite, given the deployment of US attack helicopters by Turkey, it will be bloody but the Kurds will lose.

[CerberusIV]

Current Leopards all come with composite armour. However Kurdistan isn't a nice place for conventional armies - it's mountainous, not flat desert like most of central/southern Iraq. Also the Turkish army, whilst a lot better than it used to be, isn't up to the levels of professionalism of the US army or the better European armies.

Politically Turkey would have a lot to lose by launching anything more than a punitive temporary incursion. Like any remaining chance of EU membership. Also they wouldn't have even a questionable UN mandate to cover an act of aggression. That would be a bit awkward for any NATO member. The political and economic price, unless the Kurds annoy the US or are careless enough to give a cast iron excuse is likely too high.

As long as the Shi'ites and Kurds are prepared to keep the oil flowing they will probably be allowed to win the civil war that will follow the collapse of the present efforts to establish a central government.

What irritates me are the anti-war protestors whining about getting British troops out. If the troops were pulled out and the fun and games started up these same people would then be whining for the same troops to be sent back as UN peacekeepers (with weaker rules of engagement, etc). Idiots.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by GePap
Worst case scenerio: the Kurds split form the country all together, leading to secetrian violence in Mosul and Kirkut, and possibly forcing outside players to start getting openly involved.

An even worser case scenario:
Turkey and Iran both invade Kurdistan in a three-way battle. Iran uses a nuclear weapon on NATO-member Turkey. How does the US respond?

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


An even worser case scenario:
Turkey and Iran both invade Kurdistan in a three-way battle. Iran uses a nuclear weapon on NATO-member Turkey. How does the US respond?

Nah, that would never happen - both Iran and Turkey are muslim countries and muslims doesn't fight muslims.....*

* not my words, but the reason that danish muslim soldiers gives for not going to Afghanistan/Iraq

[Dr Strangelove]

I don't think that the Iranians are so stupid that they would use nuclear weapons, and in fact I don't think that they would invade Iraq to support Sadr. Of course they can always send trainers, weapons and volunteers. Faced with a deteriorating situation in Iraq I wonder what the states of the Arabian peninsula will do. For decade Saudi Arabia has avoided forming an army truly capaqble of supporting itself because the monarchy feared that such an army would become the instrument of their downfall. Soon I think that due to public opinion they will be unable to use the US army as their defenders

[Joseph]

Originally posted by BlackCat


Nah, that would never happen - both Iran and Turkey are muslim countries and muslims doesn't fight muslims.....*

* not my words, but the reason that danish muslim soldiers gives for not going to Afghanistan/Iraq

Then you better tell someone that those other guys are muslim to.

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Joseph
Then you better tell someone that those other guys are muslim to.

You seem to have missed a point.