Hypotethical situation: The US pulls out of Iraq

[Frozzy]

What happens? Does Iraq become a terrorist puppet state like Afghanistan under the Taliban? Will it fall into civil war between rival religious, or will the terrorists get big arms dump?

I'm trying to see what good can come from people wanting troops out of Iraq when all I can see is endless negative possibilities.

[Dinner]

Civil War. Of course they're already basically having a civil war so it will just be a major intensification of an existing conflict. Right now the presenceof the foreign troops are what is keeping most of the factions in line however once those troops are gone then the power struggle over who gets to be the next dictator will begin.

[GePap]

Well, the Kurds and Shiites would try to make their government work, probably pushing through a consitution based on significant autonomy-violence in the Sunni areas would be high, and fighting amongts shiiite factions in the south might also escalate.

The various militias might come to the forefront and greater secterain violence would occur in the center of the country, specially Baghdad and Kirkut.

Best case scenerio: The Kurd-Shiite Allience push through a constitution over Sunni objections, Shiite MIlitias and the Peshmerga take a more violent approach to suppressing the insurgency-in the South rival Shiite factions duke it out while the Kurds start trying to remake the situation aorund kirkut to their liking.

Worst case scenerio: the Kurds split form the country all together, leading to secetrian violence in Mosul and Kirkut, and possibly forcing outside players to start getting openly involved. IN the south, fighting breaks out amogst rival Shiite factions, with Iran operating openly in support of its favorites. The middle of the country becomes even more violent, with Baghdad seeing very heavy secterian violence.

[Whoha]

3 states in all likelyhood. Turkey and Iran will both try to invade Kurdistan(it has oil and apparently a territorial/ethnic claim to land in both of their countries that have oil). If we armed them on the way out Turkey and Iran both get very bloody noses.

Central Iraq has no oil, and isn't important.

Southern Iraq's fate depends on the cleric in charge. Sadr = Iran, the more moderate clerics sadr had eliminated would have meant a fair chance at a setup such as the one in the North.

The argument to go ahead and remove the troops is that this 3 state breakup will happen, and that we don't want to go after shiite clerics hostile to us(thus turning southern Iraq into a copy of central Iraq) to prevent this single problem to a 1 state solution from occuring. and since it is going to happen we may as well get it over with.

[Joseph]

Well, the Kurds and Shiites would try to make their government work, probably pushing through a consitution based on significant autonomy-violence in the Sunni areas would be high, and fighting amongts shiiite factions in the south might also escalate.

The various militias might come to the forefront and greater secterain violence would occur in the center of the country, specially Baghdad and Kirkut.

Best case scenerio: The Kurd-Shiite Allience push through a constitution over Sunni objections, Shiite MIlitias and the Peshmerga take a more violent approach to suppressing the insurgency-in the South rival Shiite factions duke it out while the Kurds start trying to remake the situation aorund kirkut to their liking.

Worst case scenerio: the Kurds split form the country all together, leading to secetrian violence in Mosul and Kirkut, and possibly forcing outside players to start getting openly involved. IN the south, fighting breaks out amogst rival Shiite factions, with Iran operating openly in support of its favorites. The middle of the country becomes even more violent, with Baghdad seeing very heavy secterian violence.




3 states in all likelyhood. Turkey and Iran will both try to invade Kurdistan(it has oil and apparently a territorial/ethnic claim to land in both of their countries that have oil). If we armed them on the way out Turkey and Iran both get very bloody noses.

Central Iraq has no oil, and isn't important.

Southern Iraq's fate depends on the cleric in charge. Sadr = Iran, the more moderate clerics sadr had eliminated would have meant a fair chance at a setup such as the one in the North.

The argument to go ahead and remove the troops is that this 3 state breakup will happen, and that we don't want to go after shiite clerics hostile to us(thus turning southern Iraq into a copy of central Iraq) to prevent this single problem to a 1 state solution from occuring. and since it is going to happen we may as well get it over with.

I agree with both of the above. If we did pull out, my money would be with the Kurds. They are the most pro America in the area.

[Berzerker]

I'm trying to see what good can come from people wanting troops out of Iraq when all I can see is endless negative possibilities.

Depends on how fast they're withdrawn. Once the Iraqis have enough firepower themselves, we have no excuse being there. But do we really want a stable Iraq?
We say the removal of Saddam was our goal, but was it really? I think we wanted a better battlefield than Afghanistan for our war on terror. I repeatedly heard politicians say we were going to take the war to them. What does that mean? Since Afghanistan was their base and we didn't like that place for our war, we picked a really nice place right in the middle of the Arab Muslim world. And the fact we hated the guy and so did most of the world didn't hurt. If Iraq didn't exist I wouldn't have been surprised if Iran was the target.

If Iraq really stabilized, where would we go to fight our war? Back to Afghanistan? Too far out of the way, and we dont want a revolution in a nuclear Pakistan. Thats a definite possibility and explains why OBL can sit near the border with plenty of grassroots support thumbing his nose at us. If he hadn't planned it that way, it sure looks like a stroke of luck for him and an embarrasment to us.

Think about that... we intentionally turned another country into a warzone to draw in terrorists. And we lied to get others to wash their hands of the situation. If 2 neighbors want to fight, it ain't moral for them to pick my living room. Its smart, it just ain't moral.

[Dinner]

We went to Iraq because George Bush had a personal score to settle with the guy "who tried to kill me dad". Plan and simple that's why shrub had a hard on for Iraq since the first day he came into office and that's why he was continually trying to claim that Saddam was behind 9/11 or was going to give WMDs to Islamic Fundimentalists who had spent 30 years trying to kill him.

[techumseh]

Muqtada al-Sadr leads a revolt against the Shiite collaborators, forging an alliance with the Sunni resistance. Together they defeat the US imposed government. An agreement guaranteeing Kurd autonomy is signed, reuniting the country. Iraq finances it's reconstruction by exporting oil to India and China. It forges an alliance with Iran and Syria, leading to the overthrow of the feudal regime in Saudi Arabia and the eventual expulsion of American and British forces from the entire middle east.

[Whoha]

You forgot peace in the Middle East.

[techumseh]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page.html

[MrFun]

If we withdraw from Iraq, God will become angry that we have quit our noble Christian crusade and unleash another hurricane upon United States.

[Flip McWho]

My totally uneducated guess would be Iran moving in and taking over saying somebody had to make sure Iraq didn't dissolve into civil war after the yankees ran away with their tales between their legs and that we'll hold elections very soon and hey its not our fault if everybody in iraq likes us enough to become a section of Iran.

[Flip McWho]

If we withdraw from Iraq, God will become angry that we have quit our noble Christian crusade and unleash another hurricane upon United States.

Anybody else think that Osama has a weather machine?

[MrFun]

You heretic! Never confuse God with Osama!

[Whoha]

Originally posted by techumseh
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page.html

from your link:
"Female 'ninjas' steal Koizumi's limelight "

Female Ninjas